ITH Poker Forum

[Scully]

My graph for the year to date in big blinds - actual results and all in ev on show:


I think it's fair to say I don't run too good in all in situations.

Now I don't actually believe that all online poker is rigged (although my results on Ongame are so unbelievably bad that it makes me wonder about that one) and these results cover a number of sites/networks, but it's enough to make you question whether all is above board, and definitely enough for a casual player to decide that it's all rigged and give it up.

Would someone of a statistical mind either be able to tell me, or better still be so kind as to work out for me, how to calculate the probability of the above happening?

[mconstab]

Good god

[Fenris78]

Dammit, and I thought I was running bad in allin situations. I am running a bit over 20 BIs under EV in the last 100k hands, and it makes me really crazy right now. But that is mind numbing. Hope it turns around soon, for both of us.

[Scully]

Tbh I only checked out my ytd graph to console myself that a recent bad run was only what I was due.. what's most annoying is that there has doubtless been at least some tilt caused by running bad and it has prevented me having the br to move back up to 100nl.

On the bright side since I am no longer playing as my primary source of income this situation is merely irritating rather than unbearably stressful.

[Llanlad]

Thats a pretty dreadfull run over a sustained period Scully.

Coming from me this is pretty damn lame .... but hang in there buddy !

Hopefully it will turned around soon enough ...and that goes for Fen too .

[mconstab]

Just to make you feel better Scully I present this graph from one of the FT regs:

[Scully]

I want to know who is showing the other side of these graphs and is running like god.

I have to say I wouldn't be 100% surprised to hear in the future that the sites run shill accounts that run hotter than the sun. Very surprised yes, utterly shocked, no

[mconstab]

I want to know who is showing the other side of these graphs and is running like god.

I have to say I wouldn't be 100% surprised to hear in the future that the sites run shill accounts that run hotter than the sun. Very surprised yes, utterly shocked, no

I'd go along with that, I mean yea it sounds bitter and sceptical but I'm still yet to see a large sample graph where someone ran above EV.

[Misunderstud]

I'd go along with that, I mean yea it sounds bitter and sceptical but I'm still yet to see a large sample graph where someone ran above EV.

Perhaps the first questions to ask are whether the software is calculating All-in EV correctly and/or whether the All-in EV is what you 'should' have won. (I've no idea what the answers are, of course. )

[Llanlad]

Could it have something to do with the traditional style of play nowadays ?

Anyone and everyone seems to have watched a shed load of Card Runners videos and in general most high volume players play the same kinda style.

It might have something to do with when everyone seems to get there monies in ahead and risk being out drawn..

These players are maybe less likely to be on the reverese end of this situation as often ..

ie solid players are less likely to call a shove knowing they are behind but would rather shove themselves and bring FE into the equation.

plausable .. or me just rambling again ?

[blah730235]

If you really starting to think thais way scully I would recommend playing around with the variance simulatior. I mean 100k hands 3bb winner with a normal std deviation has quite a few lines that are negative when you run it usually. Makes you kinda sick really and realize how long the long run is.

ofc it's much easier to say when your the one not running bad.

[blah730235]

Truth is a decent winner is quite capable of being negative after 100k hands.

[MiXeR]

I`m not sure if such huge downswings in such a presence (to almost every player) is "normal", because that means that a lot of expert players (if not almost all) could easily be in downswing (and big looser) all their life at live poker?! So yes, I`m sceptical about online poker a bit and I dont want to start "rigged debate" nor I`m complaining but I really miss our (<-players) critical view and independent monitoring on all those sites which are at the moment big bosses with no response to anyone, no transparancey, no obligations, no "punishment for their mistakes“ (sorry about my English, I cant find better words, but I hope you`ll understand what I mean), etc...
I`m just pointing out that poker community should work together and find some ways to control-analyze and monitor how those sites are running (especialy dealing cards)...
Like I said Im not speaking and claiming anything about how at the moment things are, only suggesting that we all should demand better transparency and some obligations from „them“ which would be good for all players and should be no problem with sites if they are "clear"...

Regards.