ITH Poker Forum

[Chevin]

Honestly, this is beyond insane. If there's a card in the deck that can kill me it peels. OverandoverandoverandOVER AGAIN!

On euro sites collectively I'm + 2.3 PTBB/100 over 714k hands in 2010. But over the most recent 165k of those hands I'm -1.3 PTBB/100!!

I ran $200 up to $12k in $200NL rush FR earlier this year. my most recent 120k hands there have been break even!

My MTT form is utterly laughable and I may leave them alone totally in 2011 to preserve some sanity.

2010 is going to be the first year since 1997 that I lost money backing horses. I'm currently -£2550. I was + £8300 at the start of June.

The worst thing isn't the downswing but the walking around feeling sorry for myself. What a tool.

Looking around the web at various poker blogs and looking at variance sure will scare the shit out of you!!

Most of the NL100/200 players on 'stars going for SNE think it nothing unusual to break even/lose for 150k/250k hands! sod that!!

Look at zephendix on 'Stars. He's a thinking, tallented player with a relatively low varience style. He was in the top 5 winners at 'Stars $5-$10NL in the 4 months May- August and is currently the 16th biggest winner at 5-10 on stars this year.

Since August he's been losing an average of $20k a month and is utterly deflated. He's recently said he's given up try ing to beat 2/4nl and is playing $200plo!!!

Even my own favourite FR coach has lost $160k over his last 160k hands!

[kinnipak]

I wish I could offer some form of support or advice. The numbers and monies you are talking about are way over ski's.

I know you are a damn good player...hang in there. We are here for ya...

EDIT: "2010 is going to be the first year since 1997 that I lost money backing horses"...not a bad run sir.

[Misunderstud]

Chevin

Although we are situated at almost opposite ends of the poker spectrum, I can empathise completely with your post. Last year I played 300k for a reasonable profit; this year 150k break even. Nor are we alone. I see more and more posts from habitually profitable players tearing their hair out at an apparently inexplicable reversal of fortune.

But explicable it must be. I have no answers, but I don't think they lie in the paranoia of a continually unfriendly deck, or freakish variance that will even itself out eventually. It's some comfort to think that way, but we perhaps just feel those beats more painfully because they compound our already present misery, not because they're happening more often. It seems to me that the online poker landscape has undergone a more subtle underlying change that has caught out several players who, like me, are not bad at what they do and have become used to a certain level of expectation over several years. In other words, it simply seems to be getting harder to make a buck.

Perhaps it's US legislation, perhaps it's awareness filtering up, perhaps it's the recession. Whatever, one thing's for sure (IMO): things have changed and some form of adaptation is necessary. It looks as though we'll either have to improve our edge somehow (which should be much easier for me than for you, since I'm pretty near the bottom to start with) or revise our expectations.

Rough with the jagged indeed but, perversely, you might feel a little better in yourself if you accept that what you want isn't necessarily what you're going to get.

(I take it the horses are of the poker variety? If not, then I reckon you've just been a jammy bastard. )

[the_hawk]

(I take it the horses are of the poker variety? If not, then I reckon you've just been a jammy bastard. )

I doubt he was backing horses of the two-legged variety in 1997. Might be different in 2010 by the sounds of it.

[Chevin]

All horses are of the 4 legged variety ( although if it turned out some of the ones I've backed recently had less it would explain a lot )

Just ranting folks. I've made enough money this year. Possibly more than I deserve with how distracted I've been. I'm going to concentrate in 2011 on playing good poker with good volume, rather than playing huge volume as well as I can. 20 plus tables are deffinately out in 2011!!

Yesterday pokerstars announced 'frosty012' has joined their online stable of pro's. He's a good player with a low varience style but earlier this year he lost over a 350k hand sample!!

Varience is just SICK!!

[the_hawk]

Somehow I don't think variance is (just yet) stopping you going to the pub, so all is not quite so wrong with the world.

In fact I know variance has caused you to go to the pub on more than one occasion.

[Chevin]

Actually, the downswing my liver is currently going through is pretty severe and I can't see any light at the end of the tunnel this side of 2011!

[Dogs]

He's a thinking, tallented player with a relatively low varience style.

It's worse than you thought: concrete evidence there that you're entering Llanland.

[Fenris78]

BTW, if Zephendrix is a thinking talented player, why is he playing full-ring?

SCNR

[mconstab]

I'm going through something similar myself at the moment. Won at 2.96BB/100 over 270k hands up until December but this month has just been a disaster and currently on a 20 buy in downswing in like 8k hands or something. It seems I literally lose every 3 bet pot I play. I've been reviewing my sessions and there's a bit of tilt in there but generally I'm not really spewing that much but just always have the second best hand and am always being raised on the turn with a hand that can't take heat.

Stories of winning players losing for 100k hands+ has pretty much put me off continuing playing cash, that's like 4 months play for me.

[Llanlad]

He's a thinking, tallented player with a relatively low varience style.

It's worse than you thought: concrete evidence there that you're entering Llanland.

Harsh ...

I wonder how many spelling mistakes you would make if you had to post in welsh ?

Also ... FR is the new 6 max ... i think there is more monies to be made in FR ... variance is just too high in 6 max due to the small edges nowadays.

You can counter this somewhat in FR ... by just playing more tables than you can in 6 max ..

PS .. ive not played any poker in days ... so my memory is short.

[Chevin]

Stories of winning players losing for 100k hands+ has pretty much put me off continuing playing cash, that's like 4 months play for me.

Go checkout Ronfar3 on PTR. He's got the most gorgeously smooth 2PTBB/100 graph in the world and has the most tilt free/variance free style imaginable.

He's had a 150k break even stretch this year. I almost fell guilty complaining now.