ITH Poker Forum

[Da_Big_Fish]

Ok, I just have a feeling I know the answer to this.

Say I take deck of cards and deal a 9 handed game. I do this 47 times, but I don't get one of the top 5 hands. I say well the math is all screwed up and wrong, but I decide to test again. I do the same thing and do not get a top 5 hand.

The problem with making the assumption that the math is not right or whatever has to do with the sample size right? We would need to add maybe "on average" or "over time" to the end of this?

I ask this because I have a friend who plays online and he says that he's not getting his fair share of hands.

"736 hands and still no AKs – UNREAL"

How can I explain this to him better?

[Da_Big_Fish]

Friend:
ANOTHER XXXXing HOUR WITHOUT A SHOWDOWN WIN AND NO TOP HANDS
DBF
You must be doing something wrong. lol
Friend
What - I just got AA twice in first 8 hands and went 0 / 2 - so what is new
DBF
Well there's your top hands right there dealt once every 221 hands
Friend:
That makes it 1 / 6 for AA
THAT IS NOT MATHEMATICALLY CORRECT

[ciaran]

Anyone who's looking at a 736 hand sample and who's last two AA got cracked and thinks that's significant is not going to be convinced by anything you attempt to show him. The fact that you will, on average, get aces 1 time in every 221 hands and that that implies that for any given 221 hand sample there's a 37% chance you won't get dealt AA will likely be enough to halt further progress.

[Piscivorous]

How can I explain this to him better?

Tell him he needs to meet me.