ITH Poker Forum

[Damien]

WITHOUT USING POKERSTOVE

Can you tell me who is the favorite if both players go all in on this flop?

Player 1:

Player 2:

Board:

[nsidestrate]

Gotta be AK. KQs has three Queens and nine diamonds, for 12 outs twice, which would be roughly 48% to win, using the double your outs = your odds trick. IIRC, that trick inflates your numbers when you have a lot of outs, so it is probably more like 44%

[toronexti]

5d6d is the favorite.

[Fenris78]

Gotta be AK. KQs has three Queens and nine diamonds, for 12 outs twice, which would be roughly 48% to win, using the double your outs = your odds trick. IIRC, that trick inflates your numbers when you have a lot of outs, so it is probably more like 44%

Agree with nside. Also, the trick doesn't account for turned Qs getting outdrawn by rivered As. 45-55 in favor of AK should be a good rough estimate.

[Damien]

45-55 in favor of AK should be a good rough estimate.

Nside and Fen got it exactly right. I had the FD, and actually thought I was ahead when we flipped em over. This hand got me thinking, and I guess my real question is: Is the hand that is ahead at the moment always the favorite (the hand that will win if neither hand improves)? So for instance, if I had TPTK, the nut flush draw, and an OESD, and the other guy has an overpair one card higher than the highest card on the board (with no backdoor opportunities), is he always the favorite? Or if my opponent only has K high, but i have an OESD and a FD and Q high, will he still always be the favorite?

To sum up.... is the hand that is ahead at the moment always the favorite at that moment (whether there are 5 cards to come or 1)?

Am I making sense?

[toronexti]

A simple example of the situation you're referring to is JTs vs 22. JTs is a favorite but 22 will win at showdown if neither hand improves.

[chrisjp]

12 outs twice, which would be roughly 48% to win ... IIRC, that trick inflates your numbers when you have a lot of outs

You subract outs from 8 to get the number. 12-8=4 so reduce 48% to 44% If you have 15 outs then 60-7=53% Of course this is only an approximation, but it is a good one.

Chris

[Damien]

A simple example of the situation you're referring to is JTs vs 22. JTs is a favorite but 22 will win at showdown if neither hand improves.

How did I not know that? Very interesting. I'll have to play around with Pokerstove when I get home from work. 22 is a (very slim) favorite over AK though isn't it? So it must come down to the fact that JTs has many more straight possibilities.

[chrisjp]

And flush possibilities.

It's the old Amarillo Slim fleece the fish.

AKo
JTs
22

You pick first, he'll pick second. Deal the cards. Play as many times as you want. You can change your pick as the mood strikes you.