ITH Poker Forum

[SpaceLord]

I've been doing well in tournaments lately, but I have ran into hard decisions while in the middle stack zone regarding middling pairs, lets say from 55 to 1010.

I have been wondering if the math of pairs can be applied to give a good rule of thumb for playing pairs with 12-20BBs.

First, let's assume you are contemplating a Stop'n'Go play, by raising/calling preflop, and then shoving a good percentage of the time on the flop. Let's also assume you have 9-15BBs, which is a tough spot to be in with a middle pair.

The first part:

Overcards coming on the flop:

1010: 69.5%
99: 80%
88: 87%
77: 92%
66: 96%
55: 98%

Statistically, not good odds of having the "best" hand. postflop. However:

Opponent having a higher pair:

1010: 16%
99: 20%
88: 23%
77: 26%
66: 29%
55: 31 98%

Better.

More percentages I will need to find/derivate will probably include:

Chance of one or two overcards pairing with one opponent, which would probably get them to call your StopNGo.

????

And, of course, the power of the flopped set has to play in the rule.

I will hafta brush up on my Bayesian math to proceed. I'll post updates in this thread.