ITH Poker Forum

[Polar_Bears]

Solomon's Rule states:

With two cards to come, multiply the number of outs by 4, then subtract the number of outs in excess of eight to get your winning percentage.

I am curious to know where the "8" comes from?

From the way I read this, if the number of outs is 8 or less, you do nothing but multiply by 4 correct?

Thanks!

PB

(sorry for all the dumb questions...lol)

[nsidestrate]

It just is way to correct the odds to the true odds. Multiplying by four give you an approximation, which starts out low (1 out is 4.4%, not 4%, 2 outs is 8.4%, not 8%) gets a bit high as you add outs. By the time you get to 10 outs, it would calculate 40% when the true odds are 38.4%. It is just a memory trick for remembering your outs.

I don't find it that useful, because what you normally need to know is the ratio you need. For instance a gutshot (4 outs) is roughly 11:1 and it is easier to translate the bet size you are willing to call using the ratios (for me).

[Bugsbunny]

Just to show how the shortcut compares to reality:

Code: Select all

outs   pct   outs*4  (outs-8#)
1      4.3      4
2      8.4      8
3     12.5     12
4     16.5     16
5     20.4     20
6     24.1     24
7     27.8     28
8     31.5     32
9     35       36        35
10    38.4     40        38
11    41.7     44        41
12    45       48        44
13    48.1     52        47
14    51.2     56        50

Once you get to 9 outs it doesn't really matter that much in any case. The chances of you not having the odds to draw to 9 outs are pretty small. It happens occasionally to me, on the turn, with a teeny tiny pot, where I'd have to call a bet with nothing but a flush draw (for example). But with 2 cards to come I can't think of a situation where 9 outs isn't enough to justify a call of 1 sb. NL is different, although once you get up to 9 outs as long as you get 2 to 1 (including implied, but you have to factor in possible turn bets as well) it becomes an easy call. And the ratio gets smaller from there.

The rule is simply a crutch, arrived at via empirical evidence, and is most useful in the ranges where no subtraction is necessary.

[Polar_Bears]

It just is way to correct the odds to the true odds. Multiplying by four give you an approximation, which starts out low (1 out is 4.4%, not 4%, 2 outs is 8.4%, not 8%) gets a bit high as you add outs. By the time you get to 10 outs, it would calculate 40% when the true odds are 38.4%. It is just a memory trick for remembering your outs.

I don't find it that useful, because what you normally need to know is the ratio you need. For instance a gutshot (4 outs) is roughly 11:1 and it is easier to translate the bet size you are willing to call using the ratios (for me).

I actually convert the odds the same as you and play it that way. I just like to "try" and understand everything I come across. I did do the calculations separately and realized it was slightly off but it is somewhat close.