ITH Poker Forum

[toronexti]

Alright so I've made some prop bets recently and I'm trying to figure out how +ev they were.

Prop bet #1: That a guy wouldn't be able to FT 1/50 MTTs - even odds

Prop bet #2: That a guy wouldn't be able to win 1/60 MTTs - 4:1 odds

Prop bet #3: That a guy wouldn't be able to FT 2/60 MTTs - even odds

He FTs 2% of the MTTs he plays on average (over a very large sample size).

He wins .2% of the MTTs he plays on average.

On Prop Bet #1 I bet $500 to his $500

On Prop Bet #2 I bet $1,000 to his $250

On Prop Bet #3 I bet $500 to his 500

EV of each bet? Would love to see the math so I know how to do this.

[the_hawk]

#1 and #2 are easy off the top of my head. Failing to FT in 50 in a row is 0.98 to the power 50 and failing to win 1 in 60 is 0.998 to the power 60. #3 is a bit more involved and I can't work it out with just my cell

[toronexti]

OK, so he's going to FT 1/50 63% of the time? Meaning an even bet isn't good? Since I'm losing $500 63% of the time and winning $500 37% of the time. Giving an EV of -$130?

For the 2nd bet, there's an 88% chance that he won't win one. So ($250 x .88) - ($1,000 x .12) = +$100

Is that right?

[ciaran]

OK, so he's going to FT 1/50 63% of the time? Meaning an even bet isn't good? Since I'm losing $500 63% of the time and winning $500 37% of the time. Giving an EV of -$130?

For the 2nd bet, there's an 88% chance that he won't win one. So ($250 x .88) - ($1,000 x .12) = +$100

Is that right?

This looks correct.

Also, there's a 34% chance he FTs 2+ out of 60. Unless you're going for the exactly 2 angleshoot, in which case there's a 22% chance of that (assuming I'm entering these into excel correctly).

[ciaran]

Also, this can be massively angled by him, of course, by manipulating the field size in his favor.

[toronexti]

That doesn't make sense. There's a 63% chance that he's going to FT 1/50. But a 78% chance that he's going to FT 2+/60?

[ciaran]

That doesn't make sense. There's a 63% chance that he's going to FT 1/50. But a 78% chance that he's going to FT 2+/60?

No, I mis-stated. There's a 26% chance that he FTs 2+ (fixed in my original response).

Plus I got it wrong, the right answer is 34% for 2+/60.

[chrisjp]

OK, so he's going to FT 1/50 63% of the time?

He's going to lose 50 in a row 36.4% of the time. So he will win at least one during that stretch 63.6% of the time, not exactly one.

There's a stats formula to solve this. Where is bugs anyway?

Chris