ITH Poker Forum

[ciaran]

Matthew's newest book, Texas Hold'em Odds and Probabilities (THOP) is now available. You can get it for free from our Free Gift Offer or purchase it directly from our store.

Here is the back cover description:

- How often does each starting hand win against a specific hand or random hand?
- What are the odds of your opponent holding a pocket pair when he raises?
- What is the probability that an over-card will flop when you hold JJ?
- How do you determine if drawing is profitable or not?

Texas Hold’em Odds and Probabilities answers all of these questions and more. Every single decision you make at the poker table is in some way related to odds and probabilities. Whether you are deciding to bet, call, fold, raise, or even bluff, odds and probabilities are an integral part of the decision-making process.

Texas Hold’em Odds and Probabilities covers all forms of the game, including limit, no-limit, and tournament situations. This book does more than just show you how to calculate the odds – more importantly, the focus is on how to apply odds to make better decisions.

Hilger’s approach shows that you do not need to be a math wiz to be successful in poker. Simple concepts and strategies that anyone can learn will have you matching wits with the top players in no time.

Some of the topics include: raising draws for value, backdoor draws, facing all-in decisions before the flop, protecting your hand, the impact of stack sizes, and much more. In addition, the most comprehensive collection of Texas Hold’em charts and statistics ever put in print is provided as reference.

Poker is a fun game, but it is even more fun when you win. Expert players understand the simple math behind every decision they make – now you can too.

[novak79]

I'm assuming this book covers a lot of the stuff (if not all) of the stuff covered in the Mathematics of Poker. If anyone has read both and could compare the two for me please shoot em a PM or reply here. This book sounds more like what I'm looking for.

[mchilger]

Novak, I haven't read The Mathematics of Poker but I have skimmed it. It is much more advanced that my book. Their book covers a lot of game theory situations. My book focuses on pot odds, implied pot odds, betting sizes, protecting hands, etc. The last third of the book includes a lot of charts to help determine how hands stack up against other hands or ranges of hands. I consider my book more of a beginner to intermediate book while The Mathematics of Poker is very much an advanced book.

Matthew

[novak79]

that does sound more like what I'm looking for at the moment. Thanks for the quick reply

BTW, how long is the book?

[ciaran]

Texas Hold'em Odds and Probabilities is 256 pages. I found it to be a quick read, personally, but I was already pretty familiar with a lot of the topics. There are a fair number of odds charts, so the page count does overstate the amount of reading involved a bit (I don't have my copy at hand, so I can't say by how much, but perhaps someone else will chime in on that).

[Applehead]

I'm confused, aren't odds supposed to include your bet too?, like for example: 20 into 80=100 which means 5 to 1, not 4 to 1 as explained in your book, this is how i was taught odds, can you please enlighten me about this topic, your book doesn't seem to include the bet and it's very confusing to read like this. On page 156 it says to call 350 into 1295 is 3.7 to 1, but isn't this 4.7 to 1 since you have to include the bet you called or gonna call? If this is so then why is it written this way, why confuse, if i'm wrong can you please show me how this is done,Thx.

[mchilger]

Apple, the odds shouldn't include your own bet as you are trying to evaluate what you will win. You are risking $350 to win the $1,295 in the pot. Another way to think of it is to compare what you will end up. For example, say you have 1,000 in chips before making this decision. You will either end up with 650 if you lose, or 2,295 if you win. So you decrease your stack 350 with the chance of increasing it by 1,295 or 3.7 to 1.

Try comparing it to a roulette bet on a number. Each number pays 35 to 1. If you bet 10, you'll get back 360 - you 350 you win plus the 10 you bet. But the odds aren't listed as 36 to 1, they are listed as 35 to 1.

Hope that helps. Matthew

[Applehead]

Thanks for making this clear Matthew. The odds i just explained, where you have to include the bet, i have seen this written on other sites and books such as The Theory Of Poker by Sklansky, where would one use these kind of odds and why?

[mchilger]

Apple, I'm not sure why anyone would do it that way but Sklansky knows his stuff. If you point me to a page or section in Theory of Poker so that I know the context of how he is using it I might be able to explain it better.

tx, Matthew

[Applehead]

On page 41, the chapter on Pot odds, the section on Position,It writes in an example that "there is a 100$ in the pot and the bet is 20$,you appear to be getting 6-to-1 odds(120$ to 20$)." Also, on page 51, another example, there is 250$ and the the bet is 10$ stating that this is 26-to-1 pot odds, i haven't gotten through Sklansky's book so there could be other examples in there.Thx Matt and look forward to your reply.

[mchilger]

Ahh. On page 41, he isn't including your bet, he is including the bet of your opponent. Basically, he starts with the pot size before your opponent's bet and then adds your opponent's bet to the pot. In my examples, I just tell you what is in the pot at the time you have to make your decisions. So, he says there is $100 in the pot and then someone bets $20, so now there is $120 in the pot and you must call $20 for 6 to 1 pot odds (not 7 to 1 if you included your call).

Same thing on p. 51, there is $250 in the pot and an opponent bets $10...Now there is $260 in the pot and you must call $10 for 26 to 1 pot odds.

In my book, on p. 156, you bet $150 and the cutoff raises to $500. At that point in time, there is $1,295 in the pot and you must call an additional $350, or 3.7 to 1 pot odds (1295/350).

Let me know if that clears it up.

tx, Matthew

[Applehead]

Ok, thx a lot Matthew, your book is great so far and very useful stuff in it. I have another question regarding pot odds, what maths are used for getting quick and precise pot odds like say for our same example: 1295/350 is 3.7 to 1, how did you get the precise .7, the number after the decimal, can you please show me the formula for getting such an answer. Once upon a time i knew these maths but it's been so long. THx Matt.

[mchilger]

Not really a formula - I just use a calculator . But one way you can do it on the fly is that 350 x 4 = 1400 and 350 x 3 = 1,050 so you can guestimate the .7. Usually though, you don't need such precise odds to make the correct decision.

Glad you like the book.

Matthew

[Bugsbunny]

1295/350 ~= 1300/350 = 130/35 = 26/7 = 3 5/7
That's something I can do in my head pretty quickly. In practice I'd just quickly estimate it at about 3.5 (or 4) to 1 (as Mathew says 4*350 =1500, 3*350=1050, we're closer to the 1500 number, so it's between 3.5 to 1 and 4 to 1). I would probably get it simplified to 130/35 and go from there. I tend to round and simplify (and then estimate) whenever possible when dealing with things like this on the fly. It's very rare you need an exact number, especially since you're dealing with unknown information in the first place (eg what does your opponent really have?) If the result is on the bubble then what you do really doesn't matter, in those cases I will often (but not always ) opt for the course of action that reduces variance.

[ricky soul]

hi, i come from france and i bought your book wich help me a lot ... but i have a problem with one equation on one exemple

i'm trying to understand this equation on an exemple cash game no limit blinds 0.25/0.50$

MP(110$) bet 2
hero (82$) call 2
BU call 2
flop Qd4h2c
hero bet 2
BU fold
MP raise to 6
hero call 6
turn card 3s
MP bet 6
pot 24.75 what do we do

you give this formula
(24.75$ + x)/x = 4.1
24.75 = 3.1x
x = 8.98 $

i'm not a math guy so without explanation i was lost trying to understand the second line
i understand the 4.1 = 9outs (2 Q + 2 A + 4 (5) for the straight )

a friend of mine explain me how to find 3.1
(24,75 + x) / x = 4,1
24,75/x + x/x = 4,1
24,75/x + 1 = 4,1
24,75/x = 4,1 - 1 = 3,1

but for me and for my friend the result is 7.98$ not 8.98 ???
is there anything i don't understand in this formula
otherwise there may be a problem with the french version of your book ( typing problem )

thank you for your answer