ITH Poker Forum

[jfletcher]

Here's the hand..

Hero has AA.

Board is AKQJ and villain is all-in on the turn. Pot is offering about 2 to 1.

If Villain flips his cards and shows a straight, hero is about 3.5 to 1 to win (right?). So how do you calculate how often villain needs to have something else (set, two pair, bluff) for the call to be right?

The board is all four suits, so there is no flush possibilty.

[nsidestrate]

In this specific problem, the answer is 14% of the time.

I built a little Google spreadsheet so you can play around with the math for yourself.

You should be able to play around with the various parameters if you "edit this spreadsheet" I made it world writable.

The highlighted fields are the ones you should play with.

[jfletcher]

Thanks nside. That's good stuff.

for some reason I figured it would be higher (like 30 percent).

[nsidestrate]

Thanks nside. That's good stuff.

for some reason I figured it would be higher (like 30 percent).

In this particular situation whenever you are behind you have a lot of outs and whenever you are ahead, he is usually drawing nearly dead. I ignored the possibility of a ten for a chop in the interest of simplicity.

I played around with this when Harrington said he figured there was always a 10% chance of a bluff and it made calling right a lot more often than I thought it was.