ITH Poker Forum

[PTKen]

Hello. This is my first post to this forum. I've been unfortunate enough to have a full house beat by a straight flush three times in the past four months! The first two times were within three weeks of each other.

I'm wondering how I would go about calculating how often it should occur for of one of the other players at a 10-player game to make a straight flush when I have a full house. The first time this happened I actually flopped the full house and the other player hit runner-runner to make the straight flush. I'd be curious what the probability is of that specific situation as well.

Here's what I came up with, but I'm sure I'm making mistakes:

According to one web site, the chance of making a full house is 0.144% and the chance of making a straight flush is 0.00139%. So if I made a full house, then the chance someone else will also make a straight flush is 0.00144 x 0.0000139 = 0.000000020016, or 0.0000020016% someone will have a straight flush the same time I have a full house, or approximately once every 50 million hands (1/0.000000020016). It’s possibly a little worse than that because sometimes my full house cards will limit the straight flush possibilities so it will be even less frequent, but even with ignoring that, this should not happen very often!

Please let me know if you need more information. Thanks in advance for any help!

Ken