ITH Poker Forum

[toronexti]

Just want to make sure I'm doing it right.
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120/240 A25 blinds 9-handed
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Hero has 7.3k in BB with JTs.
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Villain has hero covered and is BTN.
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PF:
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Folds to BTN, BTN raises to 600, SB folds, Hero pushes.
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Estimated range for BTN calling the push: any pair, A9+, KQ (12.2% of range)
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BTN folds 69.5% of the time
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BTN calls 30.5% of the time.
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When BTN folds hero wins [225 + 120 + 600 + 240] x .695 = 823.58 chips
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When BTN calls and hero wins (39.5% according to pokerstove) =
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225 + 120 + 7300 + 7300 = 14,945 x .305 x .395 = 1,800.5 chip
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When BTN calls and hero loses (60.5% according to pokerstove) =
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7300 x .305 x .605 = -1,347
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So:
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823.58 + 1800.50 - 1,347.03 = +1,277.05 EV
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Is that all right?

[PauliF]

</span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>Quote:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="quote">BTN folds 69.5% of the time
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BTN calls 30.5% of the time. </td> </tr></table>
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where do these numbers come from?
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and I think this:
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</span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>Quote:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="quote">225 + 120 + 7300 + 7300</td> </tr></table>
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should be
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225 + 120 + 7300 + 600

[toronexti]

</span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>Quote:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="quote">
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</span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>Quote:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="quote">BTN folds 69.5% of the time
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BTN calls 30.5% of the time.
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</td> </tr></table>
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where do these numbers come from? </td> </tr></table>
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Well if he's raising 40% of the time and he's calling with 12.2% of hands then he's folding 69.5% of the time and calling 30.5% of the time?
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</span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>Quote:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="quote">225 + 120 + 7300 + 600</td> </tr></table>
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Why is it +600?
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Looking at it again I think it should be 225 (antes) + 120 (SB) + 7300 (villains stack)
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The 600 is part of villains stack?

[hazey]

Did you have 7300 before or after posting blind and ante?
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If before, your amended sum looks right but you can also subtract 265 from the last part when you lose.
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If after, you can add 240 to the amount already in the pot and the amount you would win, so you would be betting 7300 more to win:
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225+120+240+7300+240 = 8125
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I think that's right...!?
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Cheers
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hazey