ITH Poker Forum

[toronexti]

Just curious on this.

Say a tournament with 300 entrants has been running for 1.5 hour and it's down to 100. 27 cash. Hero has a 3k stack, while the average stack is 9k.

What are the chances that Hero will finish in the top 27?

[nsidestrate]

A seat of the pants estimate would be to say that if everyone had an average stack and equal skill, 27% of the players will cash. If you treat chip stacks like final table deals do, I would say that with 1/3rd the average stack, you would have 1/3rd the cash likelihood. That would assign you a 9% chance of cashing.

[PauliF]

I would agree that that is the best calc you can really do...

I would, however, say that the probability "is at most 9%". Since at the smaller the stack the smaller the FE etc and the 9% would be more exact if all players started going all in every hand

[nsidestrate]

Its also a bit off because short stacks on the bubble probably actually have a slightly higher percentage chance to cash since their optimal strategy might be to fold into the money.

[StarlightCoast]

you would have 1/3rd the cash likelihood. That would assign you a 9% chance of cashing.

Isn't a third 33.3%

[PauliF]

yes it is but he was referring to "the cash probability" of the average stack

the cash probability of the average stack is 27% therefore the supposition is that a player with a third of the average stack has a (1/3)×27% = 9% chance of cashing

[toronexti]

I've been using the above to figure out chances that people will FT. What I find is that the formula really breaks down when someone has a substantial amount over the average chip stack.

For example Player 1 is 1/15 with 1mil chips. Avg chips stack is 350k.

Using the formula (9/15) x (1mil/350k) we get a probability of 171% that the person will FT. Obviously this is incorrect.

Any way to better account for this?