ITH Poker Forum

[Bugsbunny]

Keeping this short and sweet. As I'm currently in Vegas I want a stake of 3 to 5K.

Terms are 100% ROI

Time frame for payback (target) 3 months for initial stake, 3 additional months for the rest. This is subject to some fluctuation (in either direction) but is a realistic estimate. Will disburse at the end of each month (or if you're coming out here I can hold and pay when you get here).

If you want more information or have questions pm me. In keeping with the faq terms I'm not going to say much more here.

Risks:
1) I'll abscond with the money and never be heard from again.
Unlikely - if that was the plan I'd shoot for a higher stake It's not worth it to me to abscond for that amount of cash.
2) I'll lose it all at the tables.
Based on my experiences out here so far this is extremely unlikely to happen.
3) I'll blow it all on something else.
This would be the most likely scenario, like getting suckered into giving it all away However this would be extremely stupid of me (not that I've never done extremely stupid things), and hopefully I've learned a thing or two in my life that would prevent this from happening.

If interested post an amount you might be willing to stake here. Logistics to be worked later, if I get enough people here (most likely is FTP transfer).

[the_hawk]

You will need to lay out the terms in considerably more detail. You may PM me if you like but I don't see any compromise with FAQ terms about you laying out the terms in the open here (you'll need to do this for all potential backers I guess).

I'm not absolutely clear what "100% ROI" and the target timescales actually mean. Are you saying that you realistically estimate to be able to disburse full stakeback within 3 months and double backers' money in six? That the stake ends when you double the backers' money? What proportion of your gross profits do the backers take and when do you disburse etc? What are the arrangements should you be in make-up? etc. etc.

Potentially interested in 2-4% (up to about $150) depending on precise terms.

[jrspm]

I'll likely take a few % based on Hawks clarifications.

Are there any tax issues for those not able to claim back US taxes?

[taz115]

What games are you looking at playing Bugs? Not to pry but are you looking to boost your BR so that you can get into some bigger games or are you planning on playing the lower stakes games at Venetian still?

[toom]

I don't see where you're in possible violation of the FAQs (which primarily apply to new members anyway) unless you're talking about using a certain money transfer site for cash transfers, in which case, just leave those discussions for PMs, and have no fear about openly discussing other terms.

[Bugsbunny]

OK, here's the exact situation - full disclosure:
The FAQ part I was talking about was the part about appearing to be begging The fact of the matter is whn I list risks number 3 is what actually happened to me. Stupid is as stupid does. Stupidest thing I've ever done in my life. I'm not going to go into too much detail because frankly I'm a bit ashamed, as well as really pissed off at myself - all the signals where there yet I basically chose to ignore them. Bad mindset caused to a certain extent by loneliness and hoping I had found a friend.

In any case I'm currently broke and in very real danger of being homeless in few days - so yes to a large extent I actually am begging. My bankroll had actually been in decent shape, even though I had just gone through a truly horrendous downstreak I had recently turned the corner and was winning again. Even with the downstreak though my bankroll was never in danger and my overall profit rate had been just fine.

As far as runing bad, it actually started just before xmas when I wanted just a bit more money to come back east for the holidays and I decided to try the HU computer at the Bellagio. I think it's basically unbeatable myself(Jeffs analysis has a few holes in it, starting with there is no bonus schedule for your initial bet, that involves a side bet), although variance certainly played a role in that as well. I had also jumped to 8/16 just a touch earlier than I really should have, in any case after the loss to the computer (about 2K all told) I had a trully bad session at the the 8/16 game (the same night one of the worst players at the table had one of those miracle nights when they could do no wrong, she basically won the 100 units I lost). After that I dropped back to 4/8 where the losing just continued for most of January. I also didn't play as much as I had been in Dec and January, basically taking a lot of time off.

Back to the stake - yes I'm saying that I can realistically return the original stake within 3 months. This assumes that I run semi-normal and that the stake is 3K. Larger stake would give me a bit more security (although I'd be comfortable with 3K - I know this game very well now and would have no qualms about taking it on with that stake, there's a security margin built into it already.

To be more precise the payback I'm planning on is about 1K a month, which would hopefully be about a 50/50 split after my monthly nut. In reality it would probably be closer to a 70/30 split (with the backers getting the 70). In any case I'd want to pay this down as fast as possible. If the backers agreed the one catch might be that I'd hold the money instead of disbursing earlier and shoot to move up to a higher game instead. This could have the effect of eliminating the early payouts but still having the entire time frame be approximately the same as it would have been. Especially true with a 5K stake rather than a 3K stake.

But yes I'm saying that the target payback, based on a 3K stake, I would payback 6K within 6 months. I'd send out weekly updates on the current bankroll status, including hours played etc. I'd basically be living in the casino again (as I was when I first got here), but that's OK. Not much else to do here. The payback rate (based on the 4/8 game) is steep, but doable. I just hate owing money to anyone and would want to pay off as fast as possible, while not putting myself at risk. Although maybe I should slow this down - I tended to be more protective of other peoples money then my own

In terms of what games are currently available, and where to play.
4/8 game - very soft, but bad beat city as you can expect with the majority of the table coming along for the ride. Only places to play are: Venetian, Orleans (off strip), Bellagio, sometimes the Wynn or Aria. I also hear Red Rock although I haven't played there. Orleans is a lot of locals playing for the bad beat jackpot, but they only rake 3 + 1 for the jackpot drop.

Next up would be the 8/16 at the Venetian, a game that has gotten softer lately due to the fact that a 15/30 game has sprung up there as well. the 8/16 is max raked at 3 dollars, the 15/30 is max raked at 2 dollars. The 15/30 is a byproduct of the fact that the Bellagio changed there structure recently and got rid of the 15/30, 30/60, etc games and went to 10/20, 20/40, 40/80 (which is where the heaviest action is from what I've heard) etc.

Personally I'd love to have 25K available which would mean I could safely play up to 20/40, but at this stage that's a ways down the road. My own fault because I got ahead of myself and started pressing in December (when I was in really good shape).

Anyway the bottom line is that I f..ked up big time (to the extent that I'm probably more scared then I've ever been in my life) and I'm hoping that some people here can bail me out in return for a 100% profit on their stake. I know for a fact that I can beat the games here, otherwise I would have been gone a longtime ago. In actuality, if I get the stake, the biggest risk you run is the fact that the payout may be somewhat slower than what I'm shooting for (I will NOT but the BR at risk by paying out too quickly because ultimately that puts everyone at risk of losing, not just me). But based on my play when I was first here I could have pretty much payed everything off within 5 months, so I think that the 6 month target is viable.

Questions/comments go ahead.

[the_hawk]

Initial reactions to this:

1. I think there is a crucial distinction between the point before stakeback is disbursed and after.

2. Particularly before stakeback is disbursed, 50:50 split after your nut is asking too much of the backers in a fully staked deal IMO. I would certainly hope that it is much more like 70:30 in the backers' favor. After stakeback, the picture changes quite a lot and 50:50 (or even less) is possibly OK.

3. As regards holding the money and moving up stakes, again I think it matters whether we're talking pre-stakeback or post.

4. I'm probably not terribly worried about physically receiving anything until the end of the stake (I'd bear that risk, if you prefer to pay then OK), but I think you should strictly set aside and remove from your BR any components of payout, especially before stakeback is fully accounted for.

5. I would rather you didn't overstretch yourself in terms of payback rate. Slower and steadier is better from this end.

6. I'm probably still good for $150.

[Bugsbunny]

Initial reactions to this:

1. I think there is a crucial distinction between the point before stakeback is disbursed and after.

2. Particularly before stakeback is disbursed, 50:50 split after your nut is asking too much of the backers in a fully staked deal IMO. I would certainly hope that it is much more like 70:30 in the backers' favor. After stakeback, the picture changes quite a lot and 50:50 (or even less) is possibly OK.

3. As regards holding the money and moving up stakes, again I think it matters whether we're talking pre-stakeback or post.

4. I'm probably not terribly worried about physically receiving anything until the end of the stake (I'd bear that risk, if you prefer to pay then OK), but I think you should strictly set aside and remove from your BR any components of payout, especially before stakeback is fully accounted for.

5. I would rather you didn't overstretch yourself in terms of payback rate. Slower and steadier is better from this end.

I pretty much agree with all of this. As I said I'd be trying to paybackk the stake as quickly as is possible. As far as holding money goes that's not really my decision, it's the stakeholders. Point 5 is a given, from my perspective. It's an absolutely crucial point.

As to point 6 - thanks. That's about all I can say at this stage.