ITH Poker Forum

[chrisjp]

OK so I was ranting away on IRC to deafening silence. Not the first time by the way. So I'll move it here.

<chrisjp> I have really changed my don game quite a bit. I'm very surprised with myself. A losing streak is sometimes a great thing. I mean I know I can beat this game or I need to get out of poker since it would prove I'm so self deluded lol.
<chrisjp> 1) I'm playing super weak tight early, even more than I was. No building pots without a really good hand. Like if you have AKo and flop is Kxx monotone, you just get out, maybe a small cb that's it
<chrisjp> <KK overpairs are s*** Even AA and KK should be played very carefully. AA is fine to get it all in preflop early. KK is not so fine. Too dangerous. This is in the higher buy in tournaments anyway where doubling your stack doesn't guarantee you winning. It's nice, but a lot of work still may left to be done at the bubble ie...
<chrisjp> because the risk v. reward is not worth it
<chrisjp> busting early is just a disaster
<chrisjp> especially if you are really good at the bubble like I am
<chrisjp> and you are playing good opponents who in general don't take chances early
<chrisjp> but are weaker on the bubble
<chrisjp> I'm also playing way tighter with a short stack on the bubble
<chrisjp> I'm also taking way more chances with a medium stack on the bubble against med and large stacks, or when there is a cripple at the table.
<chrisjp> and punish the small raises near the bubble with iffy hands
<chrisjp> yes, occ they have monsters but they fold way way more than 50% of the time
It really is safe to push in late position against good players who don't have small stacks. Just like it's safe to push into me. Of course note the bozos and the loose players and pray they are on your right. So costly when they are on your left and they make it to the bubble, even though that doesn't happen frequently...fortunately
<chrisjp> end of rant

[chrisjp]

Poker Stars $50+$2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t125/t250 Blinds + t25 - 6 players - View hand 502096
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: t2640 M = 5.03
MP: t1185 M = 2.26
CO: t5540 M = 10.55
BTN: t730 M = 1.39
SB: t1755 M = 3.34
Hero (BB): t3150 M = 6

Pre Flop: (t525) Hero is BB with 8 : J :
3 folds, BTN raises to t705 all in, 1 fold, Hero ???

Think this is instacall? Not so fast my friend. I took a long time and finally called.

holdemresources.net is a great ICM site.

It says that button should push with
29.9%, 33+ Ax+ K5s+ K8o+ Q9s+ QTo+ JTs
to be ICM correct

I should call with:

48.7%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K5o+ Q4s+ Q9o+ J5s+ J8o+ T6s+ T8o+ 96s+ 98o 85s+ 87o 75s+ 64s+ 54s

Well I did call and BU showed 98o. Note he shouldn't push this which is counterintuitive. It's even worse to push since opponents generally call too light icmwise. Anyway, my call is even more correct if he's pushing wider than he should which is clearly the case. Still, it's close.

Chris

[chrisjp]

Poker Stars $50+$2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds + t60 - 6 players - View hand 502212
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: t3385 M = 2.69
BTN: t1925 M = 1.53
Hero (SB): t1615 M = 1.28
BB: t2325 M = 1.85
UTG: t2475 M = 1.96
MP: t3275 M = 2.60

Pre Flop: (t1260) Hero is SB with 6 : J :
4 folds, Hero raises to t1555 all in, BB calls t955

Flop: (t3470) T : 7 : K : (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t3470) K : (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t3470) 5 : (2 players - 1 is all in)

Here's another one with extremely high blinds.

ICM says for the first 4 players to all push. Basically everyone has to fold without AA or KK. I can call with 88+. When it gets to me I can push 85% of the hands and BB can call with about 40% of the hands.

I pushed J6o and BB called with 22. 22 is not a call ICM wise. My J6 is a push.

The interesting point about this one is that even though I am the shortie I can't push everything, even from SB, because the calling range of the BB is appropriately wide. And, in reality, most BBs will call too otten here, like he did.

Of course he won the race. Where was my 6,7,T,J on the river?
Chris

[chrisjp]

Poker Stars $50+$2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t150/t300 Blinds + t30 - 6 players - View hand 502234
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: t4615 M = 7.33
MP: t4785 M = 7.60
CO: t1065 M = 1.69
Hero (BTN): t1635 M = 2.60
SB: t1270 M = 2.02
BB: t1630 M = 2.59

Pre Flop: (t630) Hero is BTN with 6 : A :
3 folds, Hero raises to t1605 all in, SB calls t1090 all in, 1 fold

Flop: (t2960) Q : 3 : 9 : (2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: (t2960) K : (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t2960) 3 : (2 players - 2 are all in)

BB calls with JJ

ICM says I am suppose to push any 2 here, but wouldn't. I think there's too much confrontation going on with stacks like this so I'd push like half the hands. BB is suppose to call with JJ+ only, he just made it inside the window. In reality he would call with more, or most would, so I shouldn't push any 2.

Flop a flush--easy winner!

Chris

[chrisjp]

Poker Stars $50+$2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds + t40 - 6 players - View hand 502254
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: t3285 M = 3.91
UTG: t2765 M = 3.29
Hero (MP): t2355 M = 2.80
CO: t2465 M = 2.93
BTN: t1775 M = 2.11
SB: t2355 M = 2.80

Pre Flop: (t840) Hero is MP with K : Q :
1 fold, Hero raises to t2000, 4 folds

Final Pot: t1240
Hero wins t1240

The interesting thing about this one is the ICMwise every person should push any2. When everyone has about the same amount of chips the first in equity is just huge. I'm increasing my stack here by 1/3 which is monstrous.

SB and BB should call me with TT+, BTN with KK+. Note how AK, as a calling hand, always sucks in situations like this. Many will call with it though.

Chris

[chrisjp]

Poker Stars $50+$2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t125/t250 Blinds + t25 - 6 players - View hand 502298
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: t3955 M = 7.53
CO: t4815 M = 9.17
BTN: t1095 M = 2.09
Hero (SB): t2340 M = 4.46
BB: t1135 M = 2.16
UTG: t1660 M = 3.16

Pre Flop: (t525) Hero is SB with 3 : 6 :
3 folds, BTN raises to t1070 all in, 2 folds

Final Pot: t775
BTN wins t775

Don't even think of calling with a junk hand here. BU should push with about half the hands. I have to have a very good hand to call: AQs, AK, 99+. The BB, a bit more, about 10% of the hands.

Chris

[chrisjp]

Poker Stars $50+$2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t125/t250 Blinds + t25 - 7 players - View hand 502340
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: t755 M = 1.37
SB: t3235 M = 5.88
Hero (BB): t2135 M = 3.88
UTG: t2130 M = 3.87
UTG+1: t2595 M = 4.72
MP: t305 M = 0.55
CO: t3845 M = 6.99

Pre Flop: (t550) Hero is BB with 5 : A :
4 folds, BTN raises to t730 all in, 1 fold, Hero calls t480

Flop: (t1760) 7 : 4 : 4 : (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t1760) Q : (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t1760) 2 : (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t1760
BTN shows T : K : (a pair of Fours - lower kicker)
Hero shows 5 : A : (a pair of Fours)
Hero wins t1760

A very interesting one I think. It is 7-handed. Button has to push more since it's not on the bubble. ICM says he should push 1/3 of his holdings and I should call with 5/8 of mine. Compare to a small blind push. Now I would only call with KK+

This one was not obvious to me, but I felt I had to try to take him out now. He's also the type that might have pushed any 2 there.

Chris

[chrisjp]

t125/t250 Blinds + t25 - 7 players - View hand 502415
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: t1180 M = 2.15
BTN: t1390 M = 2.53
SB: t3280 M = 5.96
Hero (BB): t1500 M = 2.73
UTG: t3190 M = 5.80
UTG+1: t2500 M = 4.55
MP: t1960 M = 3.56

Pre Flop: (t550) Hero is BB with A : 7 :
4 folds, BTN raises to t1365 all in, 2 folds

Final Pot: t800
BTN wins t800

Here's one I was very uncertain about and almost called. I thought it was right on the edge--so I usually fold.

ICM says he should push :

44.2%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K7o+ Q4s+ Q9o+ J5s+ J9o+ T6s+ T8o+ 96s+ 98o 86s+ 76s 65s 54s

And I should call:

21.3%, 44+ A2s+ A5o+ K9s+ KTo+ QTs+

Would he really push this wide? Maybe. Anyway looks like I should have called but who knows.

Chris

[matt1881]

Chris,

How many of these do you play at a time and how often are you ITM?

I recently started playing these, at a much lower buy-in, and I find them much more fun than normal SNGs. I'd like to know what you think are realistic expectations for the DONs.

Thanks,

Matt

[chrisjp]

My roi at the 20s was about 8%. My roi at the 50s has dipped to about 4%. I think I have been unlucky since I started playing again in January, but who knows. I have plugged some leaks in my game. You can think you are playing well, but you need to reassess all the time.

My feeling is that the lower limits play is much much worse, although I can't verify that personally. People undoubtedly play way too aggro earty tournament and call way too often late, esp with AK and AQ. These are calling death cards in DoNs when you are not short.

I play 8 tables in a session. Usually within 5 minutes I'll have them all up and running. It usually takes around 50 minutes to complete a set.

Some players at 2+2 play a couple of dozen or more at a time. I think you lose a lot of edge when you don't concentrate on bubble play. I think I've attained a happy medium. Some players fire up continually as they bust. I don't like to play early tournament and late tournament games simultaneously. Have to keep switching hats and that's too distracting for me.

I'm not happy with the return in these. They are fun, but MTTs long term will be more lucrative for me I have no doubt. But, the variance is low. Relatively speaking. 20 buy in downswings are not uncommon. And I can jump in for an hour when I have the time and not worry about things dragging out.

Welcome to ITH!

Chris

[smithlanger]

sounds good to me

[clutch352]

FWIW my ROI was about 7% over about 3,000 , 20.80 Double or Nothings. I felt like was doing much better at first when I was raising more during levels 3, 4, and 5. I had a much better ROI then I started to play to many tables and probably played to tight.