ITH Poker Forum

[AlamedaMike]

and lucky...

Ian, this is great as all of your writings are. I could not have said this better,

I will complain about luck from time to time but I fully buy into exactly what you said. Every hand that I win I attribute to 98% luck and 2% skill sometimes 0% skill. It depends if my raise or check raise got someone to fold, but still lucky the player folded.

Make the best decisions that we can and get the money in with the best of it is all we can do.

I am waiting for the day that I have zero reaction but that might mean that I am dead and don't know it.

I believe that luck never evens out in our life time of playing poker mainly because the pot sizes are always different and the same hand will most likely never occur again. That hand that we just played is gone for all eternity. I like the little podcast from Mike Caro call the theory of loose wiring. Even if we played the same hand again it might still have a different outcome.

Makes the game a true game.

[Piemaster]

Glad you liked the article.

You are right in that luck never 'evens itself out'. This is a sloppy use of language that the_hawk pulled me up on a few times while he was helping to edit The Poker Mindset. For example, if you toss a coin a million times, it is extremely unlikely that you will get exactly 500,000 heads. What you can expect however, is that you get a result relatively a lot closer to 50% than if you tossed a coin 10 times. Toss it 10 times and you will often get 7 or more heads. Toss it a million times and you will virtually never get 700,000 or more.

It's the same in poker. If you get aces 10 times, you can expect maybe 2 to get cracked, but you may get 0 or 4 or even 6. Get 1000 pairs of aces and you might get 170 or 230 cracked, but you can almost certainly expect over 700 to come in unless you sitting around giving free cards the whole time. Relatively speaking, the role of luck will appear a lot less in that longer time frame and that's what we mean by luck 'evening out' in the long term.

[AlamedaMike]

We agree on this as well - great minds Also, I was mentioning that the pot sizes will be different but if you play the same limit then that will tend to be the same given the same number of players.

Sometimes you will miss your 15 out draw and the pot will be huge and sometime you will make your 15 out draw and the pot will be much smaller.

Nothing much you can do about that.

I got real lucky yesterday on a hand where I had Qc9c and the flop was Qh-6s-3d - turn was a 9d and I got check raised. I was able to get 4 more big bets on the turn (3) and river (1) from 2 players - one had top pair w/flush draw and the other had 9-6.

That is sweet luck pure and simple. Very nice pot.

[nsidestrate]

If you are a strong player you will be unlucky more than you are lucky. That is to say that people will beat you with 2 outers, 3 outers and other long shot draws far more often than you will beat them with the same draws. That is because, as a better player, you will be in those longshot situations much less often. You will not suck out with A5 against AK because you will almost never play A5. You will not hit your miracle set with 44 on the turn of an AK9 board, because you will have already folded.

[Piemaster]

If you are a strong player you will be unlucky more than you are lucky.

I don't agree with this. I agree with what you probably mean, but not what you actually say.

"Good players get sucked out on more often than bad players." - Agree for the reasons you give.

Good player are unlucky more than bad players/" - Disagree

Good players get just as lucky as bad players, but they tend to get lucky in different ways. A good player getting lucky might be their all-in 60/40 shots holding up 70% of the time for a period. Or their premium pairs getting cracked by garbage less than usual. Or their KK running into AA less often. Sure, it's not the high profile suckouts that weak players get when their lucky, but it's still luck and nobodycan expect more than anybody else.

[AlamedaMike]

If you are a strong player you will be unlucky more than you are lucky.

I don't agree with this. I agree with what you probably mean, but not what you actually say.

"Good players get sucked out on more often than bad players." - Agree for the reasons you give.

Good player are unlucky more than bad players/" - Disagree

Good players get just as lucky as bad players, but they tend to get lucky in different ways. A good player getting lucky might be their all-in 60/40 shots holding up 70% of the time for a period. Or their premium pairs getting cracked by garbage less than usual. Or their KK running into AA less often. Sure, it's not the high profile suckouts that weak players get when their lucky, but it's still luck and nobody can expect more than anybody else.

I was watching Poker After Dark last night and Jami Gold got busted by Phil Hellmuth - Jami went all in with Q-8 and Phil called with Q-4 and a 4 flopped. In the post hand interview the lady asked Jami if he felt unlucky - he response was just like Ian writes in TPM - "every body has about the same luck and anyone that complains about luck has probably not played enough hands yet". The next hand Phil got knocked out as a 60% favorite. ATs vs KJo - flop was KJ

I have take up playing 3/6 instead of 6/12 - the luck factor there is king. But, there is still some room for skill. I missed a few bets and I pissed off a few bets where it was a skill factor and not a luck factor.

The luck is hitting your hand the skill is how much you win or lose. Case in point is that I flop 2 pair on the button with on a somewhat scary board. There were 2 diamonds -'



Four players called!

Turn was a

Checked to me and I checked - what a mistake.

River was

Checked to me and I checked - what a mistake.

I won but I left several big bets on the table. I should have bet.

[nsidestrate]

If you are a strong player you will be unlucky more than you are lucky.

I don't agree with this. I agree with what you probably mean, but not what you actually say.

"Good players get sucked out on more often than bad players." - Agree for the reasons you give.

Good player are unlucky more than bad players/" - Disagree

Good players get just as lucky as bad players, but they tend to get lucky in different ways. A good player getting lucky might be their all-in 60/40 shots holding up 70% of the time for a period. Or their premium pairs getting cracked by garbage less than usual. Or their KK running into AA less often. Sure, it's not the high profile suckouts that weak players get when their lucky, but it's still luck and nobodycan expect more than anybody else.

What you say is of course true, but people don't think of it because of the way we perceive luck. Good players might run hot for a while where their 80% favorites actually hold up 90% of the time, but they never feel lucky on any individual play. However, when the 20% shot comes in, they feel unlucky, even if it was exactly the fifth time they were in that situation.

The phenomenon that we most often label "lucky" at the poker table is the underdog winning the hand. Winning players will be lucky much less often in that particular way (usually), but of course they get lucky in other ways that are simply less obvious.

[Piemaster]

I've just stumbled upon this post on another forum, which I think makes one of the points I was trying to address in this article very well, plus an important concept from The Poker Mindset about downswings.

http://www.cardschat.com/f13/anatomy-downswing-107305/

[nsidestrate]

Thinly veiled brag post.

[Piemaster]

Thinly veiled brag post.

I must admit, I did find the article while Googling TPM

[SpaceLord]

I've been thinking about luck a lot lately.

Let's say there is a LuckMeter(LM). It indicates how lucky a person is in the current situation. At showdown, the person with the highest luck rating always wins.

Preflop, of course, AA is 100 on the meter. 7-2 offsuit is 1, and 2-3 offsuit is 1 if you are heads-up.

In order to win a huge pot while being 90+ on the LuckMeter, you need someone else, I would say within 20% of you to get paid off for your lucky hands.

Example:

You are dealt AA. One opponent, who has you more than covered, has AK. Perfect situation for you to double up. More likely, Let's say that the only opponent that has you covered gets total trash like 8-2 offsuit. Your disparity in the LM probably means you can't double up, even with AA.

Let's say that you raise quite a bit, say 5BBs, and get 2 callers. The flop comes K-J-10, with the J and 10 as diamonds, and you don't have the A of diamonds. This drops your luck factor to let's say, 80. That flop is not too good for you, since anyone that just flopped a set(of course) or has two diamonds is potentially ahead of you. There's also a great straight possibly for anyone holding any Queen. It's entirely possible, however, that your AA is still good. In fact, it's probably 75% likely. If someone has a single King, they will probably call your bet on the flop. Let's say the turn brings the A of diamonds. It would normally be good, but now you are praying for no diamond on the river, and are hoping for the board to pair. If it *does* pair, your action will probably dry up fairly often, as the Fear of the Boat strikes stone cold players with mortal terror. I'd say this turn card slightly decreased your luck, as you will scare the King holder away quite often, unless that player has the diamond King. Now, anyone with the Q of diamonds has you crushed, as well as any two diamonds.

The pot, with you and a player with the King of Diamonds, is now 22+ BB. What do you do? Even when you do the "safe" thing and check, a bet by an opponent on the turn or the river puts a hard decision on you.

This inter-twining effect of luckiness pervades the game of poker.

As an example, I was playing at Caesar's in Atlantic City in a tournament yesterday. I had went all-in on the button twice before, and had no one call, scooping a good pot pre-flop. The guy in the SB had just, the hand before, won a giant pot when his K-10 runner-runnered a straight. I looked down to see AQx. I had a decent stack, not in immediate danger. It was folded to me, so I put in a 4x raise. The SB, still stacking chips, sounding annoyed, announced 3x a re-raise. With antes, if I won this pot, I would be the chip leader if I doubled up. I figured I was a big dog to 2 hands: AA, and AK. I was a slightly smaller dog to KK. The first two events were half as likely as normal, since I held an Ace myself. Of course, he held AK and I busted out. I got lucky with the AQ, but the LM of my opponent was higher.

[AlamedaMike]

I've just stumbled upon this post on another forum, which I think makes one of the points I was trying to address in this article very well, plus an important concept from The Poker Mindset about downswings.

http://www.cardschat.com/f13/anatomy-downswing-107305/

Of course, being a fan of TPM, I agree with these concepts however, I have given this a lot of thought as you know.

The "problem", if there is a problem, is that all things are not equal. Flipping a coin that is 60-40 (actually I prefer dice since you can get a combination that is close to 60-40) things are equal. Not only do you not tilt but you have the same players on the same table - not true when playing poker - see Mike Caro loose wiring - but the theory is true - play you A game all the time.

Yesterday I was losing 50 big bets after several hours - then in 1/2 hour I won 6 pots for 45 big bets. That was one session.

So mood and other things do affect your luck as well as just plain luck all by itself. On a whim (CO) I called with a hand that I should not have in one session (tilt) and I foppled a full house - 408-1. SB had AA and I won a big pot - very bad poker on my part.

I'm convinced that you have to get lucky sometime to win or at least I do - luck is hitting your hand and how much you win is somewhat contributed to some level of skill.

What concerns me is that I win when I get lucky. end of story - which it too bad.

[AlamedaMike]

I've been thinking about luck a lot lately.

It is hard to categorize this but I heard someone say the closer you are to losing the hand more likely you are to win a bigger pot. When I do suck out on the river when I was way behind (but had the odds to chase) I would often win a big pot - that is why "they" like to gamble with big pots.

I usually do not win bit pots with my monsters unless I am lucky enough to have someone with the second best monster to chase me.

[Bluedaq]

Here is one of badgers articles GL
http://www.playwinningpoker.com/poker/math/variance/

[AlamedaMike]

Here is one of badgers articles GL
http://www.playwinningpoker.com/poker/math/variance/

Thanks for the link - solution is to always play your A game and pray that your A game is better than their game - if not fine a table where your A game is better or improve your A game.

A topic of Tommy Angelo's book.

BTW my AA win about 65%-70% live and I am very happy with that and online almost as much - I love them everytime I get them win or lose. My problem comes with hands like AKo, A9s and QJs - and really with overpairs to the board QQ-TT but against a 3-bet preflop.

Luck is just short term variance.