ITH Poker Forum

[nyehehe]

Grabbed byHoldem Manager
PL Omaha $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($3.89)
BB ($21.64)
UTG ($13.27)
UTG+1 ($6.20)
CO ($18.82)
Hero ($12.90)

Dealt to Hero 6:diamond: 4:diamond: 7:diamond: 3:heart:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.35, fold, BB raises to $1.10, Hero calls $0.75

FLOP ($2.25) J:heart: 4:club: 6:heart:

BB bets $2.25, Hero raises to $7.60, BB raises to $20.54 (AI), Hero calls $4.20 (AI)

TURN ($25.85) J:heart: 4:club: 6:heart: 7:club:

RIVER ($25.85) J:heart: 4:club: 6:heart: 7:club: 7:heart:

Well... After 3betting me preflop out position, I gave him a range AA** and KK** at least good cards without danglers. so I think he has an overpair or maybe a J, but not two pair or set. So I thought my 64 was the best hand at that moment. So in best case he had a AAJ* with the flush draw. If that is case he is slightly favorite (54%). After the reraise I could not fold because of the odds... (5:1) What are your opinions?

[PLOver]

you could just call and wait for non heart turn card and then bet or raise, but this isn't too bad either, you also have a gutshot so you are almost coin flip!

[tcuccia]

Tough spot here, I would have limped pre, but I think raising is ok too. I would have just called on the flop to try to play a smaller pot.

[Bouma]

I like your play.

Your opponent likely has AAxx, he misses the flop hard but c-bets and because it is PLO10 he pushes all-in after you reraise him. You got him now.
I don't expect him to have the flush draw every time, as it looks like he would've pushed any flop.

To call the flop is another way to play it, but if the turn scares you and he bets again - what then?

[wodka88]

You played it perfectely fine.

[lolercoasterrr]

though you have the best hand here i think your ranges are too light. for example if he has the naked AA or KK or some overpair then you are way ahead, but I think even if he has a high rundown such as AKQJ then you are only a slight favorite, and if he has a flush draw to go with a pair then he is actually a favorite. the problem with your hand is that you are either a slight favorite or a big underdog, and you can't really improve it unless you catch really specific cards.

however i think you played it fine, but if you were deeper i may consider just flatting and keeping the pot small

[J7]

You are way ahead of his range, get the money in now before a scary turn card kills your action.

[safesteps]

I 'd rather call preflop but it's not that big a deal the fact that you raised.

What it concerns me much is the flop play. I 'm surprised nobody expects villain having JJ occasionally! I m not seeing ghosts but you cant be that sure you 're ahead. Besides, two bottom pairs, especially that low ranked, break easily. And at best you 're a small favorite. And I believe many times you 're gonna be a dog, that many that it's not +EV to push here. I 'd rather prefer calling the flop and see his turn intentions...

[J7]

I 'm surprised nobody expects villain having JJ occasionally!

Given that villain reraised out of position, I would strongly discount the possibility of him having JJxx.

I m not seeing ghosts but you cant be that sure you 're ahead.

We cannot be sure that we are ahead of his exact hand, but I would say that we are almost certainly way ahead of his range for 3-betting preflop out of position and continuation betting the flop. We are even ahead of aces with the nut flush draw (if he has no other backup). And an overpair with a flush draw is almost the worst-case realistic scenario. I see people stacking off with naked aces in these spots all the time, a scenario in which we have over 70% equity. Without reads, doing anything else than jamming the flop is pretty bad in my opinion.

[safesteps]

Given that villain reraised out of position, I would strongly discount the possibility of him having JJxx.

Ofc I m not talking about bare JJxx, but there are many hands like AAJJ, KKJJ, QQJJ, JJTT, even JJQKds etc.

[J7]

Given that villain reraised out of position, I would strongly discount the possibility of him having JJxx.

Ofc I m not talking about bare JJxx, but there are many hands like AAJJ, KKJJ, QQJJ, JJTT, even JJQKds etc.

And what percentage of his 3-betting range do those hands comprise? Most hands containing two jacks are in a typical players flatting range rather than his 3-betting range. He would probably 3-bet AAJJ, all the other hands you mention may or may not be in his 3-betting range. So, when he continuation bets the flop, how probable do you think it is that we are against top set?

[safesteps]

He would probably 3-bet AAJJ, all the other hands you mention may or may not be in his 3-betting range.

True

So, when he continuation bets the flop, how probable do you think it is that we are against top set?

I 'm surprised nobody expects villain having JJ occasionally!

Maybe I should have said 'rarely' to be more precise but I think I was close enough anyway.

[Piemaster]

While I agree that on the flop we are ahead of his PF3 range, how far ahead of that range are we after he 3s the flop? If he does have just AA and a flush draw then he has 13-14 outs and more on the turn, which is basically a coin flip, in fact I think he would be a slight favourite (I haven't stoved it yet). And that's the best case scenario. If he has a set we are sunk. If he has a straight draw (even a gutshot) to go with his flush draw and overpair, we are behind.

[J7]

While I agree that on the flop we are ahead of his PF3 range, how far ahead of that range are we after he 3s the flop?

Not much if at all, I would guess we have around 45-55% equity against his range for stacking off (but that is not because I expect him to have a set often at all, it is because hands like top pair plus flush draw are doing pretty nicely against us). In other words, we have way too much equity to fold, and since calling is not a particularly attractive option with these stacks sizes and that board, that leaves getting it in as the choice of the day.

[J7]

If he does have just AA and a flush draw then he has 13-14 outs and more on the turn, which is basically a coin flip, in fact I think he would be a slight favourite (I haven't stoved it yet).

Here you go (from ProPokerTools.com):

board: Jh4c6h
6d4d7d3h 53.78%
AhAs8h2s 46.22%

Of course, you only need to give him a gutterball to get us behind:

board: Jh4c6h
6d4d7d3h 42.99%
AhAs8h7s 57.01%

And since making either overly optimistic or overly pessimistic assumptions on his exact hand gives us the chance to get pretty much the results we want, it is best to use ranges. This is for aces with the nut flush draw:

board: Jh4c6h
6d4d7d3h 49.58%
AhA*h* 50.42%

Then you add in the estimates of how often this particular player would stack off with naked aces, and how often he reraises some other hands than aces and has flopped a hand like a pair and a draw, and you get a reasonable estimate of our overall equity. If he is a tight reraiser preflop but cannot fold overpairs postflop, we are golden. If he has a wide reraising range but does not spew postflop, we are probably behind when he shoves (but this does not mean we were wrong to raise the flop).