ITH Poker Forum

[lolercoasterrr]

Obv. this is a standard hand (though I guess there's a debate of whether to lead flop or check/raise). I thought i was definitely the favorite getting it in but it turns out the button with top pair and the nut flush draw had 43% equity, whereas me and the other guy had roughly 28% equity each...

Merge $100.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 706487
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $33.20
BTN: $87.55
SB: $112.73
Hero (BB): $100.00
UTG: $47.60
MP: $87.58

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with T 8 T J
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, BTN calls $1, SB raises to $5, Hero calls $4, UTG calls $4, BTN calls $4

Flop: ($20.00) 5 7 9 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets $20.00, BTN raises to $80, SB folds, Hero raises to $95, UTG calls $22.60 all in, BTN calls $2.55 all in

Turn: ($227.70) 8 (3 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($227.70) 6 (3 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $227.70
BTN shows A 2 2 9
Hero shows T 8 T J
UTG shows 8 5 7 J
Hero wins $12.45
Hero wins $66.37
Hero wins $145.88
(Rake: $3.00)

[germanfalcon]

Given the postflop action I think you would be never a huge favorite. Mostly you are facing made str8s, nut flush draws and sets. Against two of these three you have roughly 30-40%. You can consider your flush draw dead and block some of your outs with your pair as well. You only have invested $4, if you dont like variance from equity I think its better to fold postflop.

[lolercoasterrr]

Given the postflop action I think you would be never a huge favorite. Mostly you are facing made str8s, nut flush draws and sets. Against two of these three you have roughly 30-40%. You can consider your flush draw dead and block some of your outs with your pair as well. You only have invested $4, if you dont like variance from equity I think its better to fold postflop.

folding the nut wrap, overpair, and a flush draw? i highly doubt that's profitable, though in this case I guess it may have been the correct play. i tend to think this was just an unlucky situation and normally i would be fist pumping

[germanfalcon]

folding the nut wrap, overpair, and a flush draw? i highly doubt that's profitable

You look at your hand alone and dont think about what others can have. Try to think about what ranges could make this action and rethink your outs. You are defintely in a three handed pot, because your "check/raise" has no fold equity more.

When you think that through, your conclusion must be that only your nut wrap outs are counting. Not sure about freerolled and other things. It would be something else if you are heads up or if you have bet the pot before getting other odds now. You have invested $4, so what?

[whereisthelove]

im with germanfalcon on this one. three way pots are more complex that we need to think hand ranges of our opponents and possible blockers and domination. if the UTG has lot more money behind, then I definitely would have shoved the flop as well. or if we would have led the flop by betting $18-$20, it is probably easier to call off the rest.

Also, if we have known these two players to be very wild and making bets and all-ins with mediocre hands, then getting it in on flop is fine.

[lolercoasterrr]

i still don't think we can ever fold this type of hand in this situation... would be interested hearing jeff's opinion on this

[safesteps]

I believe falcon's posts to this thread are great. We should always think of the opponents' ranges and not only our hand.

A small note about the equity issue: If we consider 30-40% in such a spot I don't think we should fold because it's a tripling up situation, so the odds are really good (of course it's a matter of high/higher variance).

The real pain in the ass is that sometimes you 're below 30%, like current situation (even so marginally below), when you believe you hold a monster!

[J7]

We should always think of the opponents' ranges and not only our hand.

Let's do that. I'll use the range given by germanfalcon as an example, although the stackoff ranges are almost certainly wider (many combo hands such as what UTG had), and we can discount the lower pairs a bit since not every 55xx combo gets played, but should be close enough.

Mostly you are facing made str8s, nut flush draws and sets.

Equity calculations from ProPokerTools.com:
board: 5c7c9h

Tc8cThJh 41.37%
Ac*c**, 99**, 77**, 55**, 86** 29.32%
Ac*c**, 99**, 77**, 55**, 86** 29.31%

We are well ahead of those ranges, so with these assumptions folding would be ridiculous.

You can consider your flush draw dead

This is not true, you just have to discount it since it can sometimes be dead, and even then you at least have some blockers to the redraw/lockout. You may easily be against the nut straight and a set, or the nut straight and a combo hand, or any other combination of stackoff hands that do not include the nut flush draw.

Now, if we assume that we are always against the nut flush draw, our situation looks much worse, although not horrible:

board: 5c7c9h

Tc8cThJh 30.77%
Ac*c** 30.34%
99**, 77**, 55**, 86** 38.89%

In practice, I would estimate that suited aces are played more often than the lower pairs, so in practice you would be against the nut flush draw a bit more often than the first calculation would estimate. On the other hand, their ranges are a bit wider than given above, and at times you could even win the pot (or a sidepot) unimproved. I would guesstimate that against reasonable ranges you have around 37% equity in this threeway allin. In my opinion, a clear shove, although not by a huge margin.

You have invested $4, so what?

Yeah, so what? How much you have "invested" preflop has nothing to do with your decision after the flop. If you don't like variance, why are you playing PLO?

[safesteps]

If you don't like variance, why are you playing PLO?

That's a great truth and a big issue. PLO has a tremendous variance compared to NLHE. The debate is whether we want variance or not in our game.

Many players believe that they have to reduce variance to be profitable. I don't like big variance either. It's a matter of internal process. On the other hand, variance brings bad players to the game and if you 're properly bankrolled, you may be more profitable in a high variance game. I have concluded to if variance doesnt affect your A-game then it's fine to pursue it, otherwise try to reduce it.

[J7]

Regarding variance, I am all for reducing variance by e.g. folding marginal hands preflop and not making 0EV gambles. My comment was more directed to germanfalcon's comment:

you have roughly 30-40%
[...]
if you dont like variance from equity I think its better to fold postflop.

With a 20bb preflop pot and 100bb effective stacks, folding instead of getting it in with 35% equity 3-way, you are making a 12bb mistake, and you just cannot be making mistakes that big just to reduce variance. (I simplified the example a bit, in the actual hand you would need to take into account the sidepot in which you are a slight favourite against a typical range.)

[Bouma]

Given the postflop action I think you would be never a huge favorite. Mostly you are facing made str8s, nut flush draws and sets. Against two of these three you have roughly 30-40%. You can consider your flush draw dead and block some of your outs with your pair as well. You only have invested $4, if you dont like variance from equity I think its better to fold postflop.

folding the nut wrap, overpair, and a flush draw? i highly doubt that's profitable, though in this case I guess it may have been the correct play. i tend to think this was just an unlucky situation and normally i would be fist pumping

I agree. Which hands would you play if you start folding nutwrap+overpair+fd...? None. Which can not be profitable.