ITH Poker Forum

[atavistic]

I was doing a line-check earlier and thinking about how having 3bet with a good medium/high rundown in late position, I'll automatically call a 4bet from the original raiser even with the certainty of being against a strong AAxx hand, because I have position and the 4bettor will feel pot committed on most flops, so the implied odds are tangibly greater than the 2:1 pot odds.

However, the more I thought about it, the more I saw that I was overlooking the fact that I'll often feel compelled to call an all-in on the flop as a 2:1 dog because the pot will be offering me 3:1.

So I crunched some numbers based on a crude estimate that a third of the time we'd be a 6:4 favourite, a sixth of the time we'd be a 2:1 dog and half the time we'd fold to the 4bettors all-in on the flop (a 2bet/4bet sequence from a stack with less than 115 big blinds will result in an SPR of <1 and so an all-in on the flop is almost obligatory).

Using these crude numbers led me to conclude that I'd lose less in the long run by simply folding pre-flop.

Obviously, there are meta-game and table image considerations and player type variables to throw into the mix, but my inclination is to fold in these spots in future and move onto the next hand. How big or small a mistake do you think that would be?