ITH Poker Forum

[rickyt88]

Near ITM bubble what is hero's line?


Pot Limit Omaha Tournament
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG toxilady (27,700)
UTG+1 guns465 (4,389)
CO zolcsa1 (69,160)
BTN KickerQ (44,295)
SB Giraffii (28,606)
BB Hero (18,760)

Blinds: 300/600

Pre-Flop: (900, 6 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, zolcsa1 calls 600, 1 fold, Giraffii calls 300, Hero checks

Flop: (1,800, 3 players)
Giraffii checks, Hero checks, zolcsa1 bets 1,800, Giraffii raises to 7,200, Hero?

[crunchtime]

i think with the combination of made hand and reasonable draw i would stick in my money. a set of sixes is really the only hand i would be concerned about here (i discount AA and QQ because u hold one of each in your hand). against all other hands ur in good shape imo. ofc course u could be up against the nut flush draw plus broadway wrap and this hands become more probable in light of the action. and ofc u need a very strong hand (icm-wise) to shove ur money in to make theoratically the sound play. but to consider is lot of more imo: what's the buyin? does just itm means a lot to ur br? is there a very lowstack soon to bust? a lot of weaker hand combos are also quite possible! the bubble is also good spot to collect chips ...i would shove it

[aural]

if you were heads-up against one opponent, i´d say: get your money in, but against two players, i´d think about it twice. the chipleader may just be on a steal, but the raiser may have a legitimate hand




i would say that at least the raiser has a legitimate hand. let´s see, how you do heads-up against some possible hands:

against you are a 48%-dog, so a shove is fine

against AAxx you are about a 30%-dog

if your heads-up-opponent has top set plus the nut-flush-draw, you are a 2%-dog

against a draw, you look fine, against a set it´s not so nice, depending on the additional draws your opponent has.

plus: if the chip leader has some sort of legitimate hand and will stay, you´re in very bad shape. now it depends on your read on him. has he been on a steal pretty often when he had the chance or has he mostly bet with legitimate hands? if the latter is the case, i would consider a fold as an option. the problem is, you have to act before him. i would lean towards a fold here.

cheers
s.