The Math of Hold'em
200 PLO - KQJ9ds
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200 PLO - KQJ9dsVillain is multitabling PLO on stars - so I assume he is decent.
<br /> <br /> I can't fold, can I? So call or reraise? <br /> <br /> PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - <a href="http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-PokerStars.php#converter" target="_blank" class="postlink">Poker-Stars</a> Converter Tool from <a href="http://www.flopturnriver.com" target="_blank" class="postlink">FlopTurnRiver.com</a> <br /> <br /> UTG ($690.20) <br /> Hero (MP) ($210.05) <br /> CO ($276.90) <br /> Button ($402.35) <br /> SB ($457) <br /> BB ($200) <br /> <br /> <span style="font-weight: bold">Preflop</span>: Hero is MP with <img src="images/smiles/c9.jpg" alt="9 of Clubs" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/sk.jpg" alt="King of Spades" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/cj.jpg" alt="Jack of Clubs" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/sq.jpg" alt="Queen of Spades" border="0" /> <br /> <span style="color: #666666"><span style="font-style: italic">1 fold</span></span>, <span style="color: #CC3333">Hero bets $7</span>, <span style="color: #666666"><span style="font-style: italic">1 fold</span></span>, <span style="color: #CC3333">Button raises to $22</span>, <span style="color: #666666"><span style="font-style: italic">2 folds</span></span>, Hero ????
No way can you fold. My default play would be to call. However, if I know my opponent and knows that he 3-bets light - then a 4-bet is a consideration.
<br /> <br /> Matthew "It's not about the hand you put your opponent on, it's about how you think he will play that hand."
When someone reraises, if a 1-tabler, I figure they have aces 65+% of the time. When a reg reraises, it can be other things, but it is often aces. So here I flop a monster - 9 straight outs with an additional 8 flush outs.
<br /> <br /> What is the best way to play this if we think he has aces? <br /> <br /> What is the best way to play this if we think there is a strong chance he does not have aces? <br /> <br /> What is the best play? <br /> <br /> <br /> PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - <a href="http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-PokerStars.php#converter" target="_blank" class="postlink">Poker-Stars</a> Converter Tool from <a href="http://www.flopturnriver.com" target="_blank" class="postlink">FlopTurnRiver.com</a> <br /> <br /> UTG ($690.20) <br /> Hero (MP) ($210.05) <br /> CO ($276.90) <br /> Button ($402.35) <br /> SB ($457) <br /> BB ($200) <br /> <br /> <span style="font-weight: bold">Preflop</span>: Hero is MP with <img src="images/smiles/c9.jpg" alt="9 of Clubs" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/sk.jpg" alt="King of Spades" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/cj.jpg" alt="Jack of Clubs" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/sq.jpg" alt="Queen of Spades" border="0" /> <br /> <span style="color: #666666"><span style="font-style: italic">1 fold</span></span>, <span style="color: #CC3333">Hero bets $7</span>, <span style="color: #666666"><span style="font-style: italic">1 fold</span></span>, <span style="color: #CC3333">Button raises to $22</span>, <span style="color: #666666"><span style="font-style: italic">2 folds</span></span>, Hero calls $15 <br /> <br /> <span style="font-weight: bold">Flop</span>: ($47) <img src="images/smiles/s10.jpg" alt="10 of Spades" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/ca.jpg" alt="Ace of Clubs" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/s9.jpg" alt="9 of Spades" border="0" /> <span style="color: #009B00">(2 players)</span> <br /> Hero ????
I would not fold here either. I would call. Your hand is just too strong to fold. The raise from the BTN says he has something (unless he is floating). Reraising would only create a bigger pot. He might 4-bet. While a good hand, the more I play, the more I feel that controlling the size of the pot is important before the flop because the flop better defines your hand. It is not like Holdem where AA preflop against one player is an 85% favorite to win.
<br /> <br /> In this case after seeing the flop, betting out half of the pot seems to me to be the best play. You are out of position and he can put a move on you by reraising which would leave you in a tought spot, but, not that much more than you are already in. You are drawing.... As Jeff said, Omaha is played 99% on the draw. Semi Bluffing here seems right. You want more information but you don't want the pot to get out of control unless you are willing to go allin. <br /> <br /> Hope this helps, <br /> Jim
Out of position I do not 4-bet this. If we do, we're either getting all-in pre-flop, or we're committed to just about every flop ever. I call the 3-bet, see the flop with SPR being 4 and going from there.
<br /> <br /> This could be an isolation play on his part. Without any more info, I would usually make AAxx a big part of his range here. <br /> <br /> On this flop you're 50:50 with aces (provided he doesn't have one or both of your flush draws). He probably doesn't suspect you have them. <br /> With no other information to go on (his c-bet tendencies, how strongly he would play a miss here)...if you've been checking into PFRs a lot, I would check intending to raise here. If you've been donking, I would donk hoping to 3-bet all-in. You have nailed this flop (though he may have as well).
I don't know what i like here.
<br /> <br /> Check call keeps the pot small and doesn't leave you making a tough decision if the board pairs. But it's also VERY weak IMO <br /> <br /> Check/raising makes a massive pot and makes you a ton of money if you hit and beat him. <br /> <br /> I think i lead at this flop and i'm not scared to go broke with this hand on this flop. But i play PLO cause i want to gamble a little and make HUGE pots.
Call pre I guess.
<br /> <br /> Flop is tough. If he does have AA then he probably has the nut spade draw like at least half the time. ( has the As 2/3) In which case you aren''t in great shape. <br /> <br /> If you lead you don't get folds from any better hands or much action from worse hands I wouldn't think. So check/call.
u even looked at his 3bet% rate preflop? i fwiw have about 9% so it means i 3bet alot in position and i dont care if i have aces or some other playable hands so i depends hard on that stat.
<br /> <br /> as played i check raise the flop and try to get it in
</span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>realmaniac wrote:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="quote">u even looked at his 3bet% rate preflop? i fwiw have about 9% so it means i 3bet alot in position and i dont care if i have aces or some other playable hands so i depends hard on that stat.
<br /> </td> </tr></table> <br /> <br /> I haven't played too much with him. I don't yet have a PLO hud, so I wouldn't know exact stats anyway. (I need to get Omaha manager, I think.) <br /> <br /> The next action - I certainly can't fold. So call or raise? <br /> <br /> PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - <a href="http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-PokerStars.php#converter" target="_blank" class="postlink">Poker-Stars</a> Converter Tool from <a href="http://www.flopturnriver.com" target="_blank" class="postlink">FlopTurnRiver.com</a> <br /> <br /> UTG ($690.20) <br /> Hero (MP) ($210.05) <br /> CO ($276.90) <br /> Button ($402.35) <br /> SB ($457) <br /> BB ($200) <br /> <br /> <span style="font-weight: bold">Preflop</span>: Hero is MP with <img src="images/smiles/c9.jpg" alt="9 of Clubs" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/sk.jpg" alt="King of Spades" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/cj.jpg" alt="Jack of Clubs" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/sq.jpg" alt="Queen of Spades" border="0" /> <br /> <span style="color: #666666"><span style="font-style: italic">1 fold</span></span>, <span style="color: #CC3333">Hero bets $7</span>, <span style="color: #666666"><span style="font-style: italic">1 fold</span></span>, <span style="color: #CC3333">Button raises to $22</span>, <span style="color: #666666"><span style="font-style: italic">2 folds</span></span>, Hero calls $15 <br /> <br /> <span style="font-weight: bold">Flop</span>: ($47) <img src="images/smiles/s10.jpg" alt="10 of Spades" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/ca.jpg" alt="Ace of Clubs" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/s9.jpg" alt="9 of Spades" border="0" /> <span style="color: #009B00">(2 players)</span> <br /> Hero checks, <span style="color: #CC3333">Button bets $38</span>, Hero ????.
Two things i don't like:
<br /> <br /> 1) You must play oop <br /> and <br /> 2) You draw only to the second nut flush <br /> <br /> If a spade comes on the turn - what do you do? <br /> <br /> If you raise on the flop i believe you will win a small pot or lose a big one.
</span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>JLucPicard wrote:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="quote">Two things i don't like:
<br /> <br /> 1) You must play oop</td> </tr></table> <br /> Yeah, that isn't good. But we have a nice hand with many, many possibilities. <br /> <br /> </span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>Quote:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="quote"> <br /> 2) You draw only to the second nut flush <br /> </td> </tr></table> <br /> I'm way more comfortable with that vs. 1 opponent. If it was 2 or more, I'd be worried about this. <br /> <br /> </span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>Quote:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="quote"> <br /> If a spade comes on the turn - what do you do?</td> </tr></table> <br /> <br /> If a spade comes on the turn that's an easy choice. We have already made our decision and committed to the hand by calling the flop. We have to decide on the flop if we think our flush would be good. Deciding on the turn would be too late. <br /> <br /> </span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>Quote:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="quote"> <br /> If you raise on the flop i believe you will win a small pot or lose a big one.</td> </tr></table> <br /> <br /> This is a minor point, but at 40BBs this is no longer a small pot. That valuable axiom doesn't really apply here.
Thanks for the comments - here is the rest.
<br /> <br /> The only other thing that went through my mind when deciding is that I also had a backdoor flush draw as well. I figure a backdoor FD is worth about 2 extra outs. <br /> <br /> PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - <a href="http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-PokerStars.php#converter" target="_blank" class="postlink">Poker-Stars</a> Converter Tool from <a href="http://www.flopturnriver.com" target="_blank" class="postlink">FlopTurnRiver.com</a> <br /> <br /> UTG ($690.20) <br /> Hero (MP) ($210.05) <br /> CO ($276.90) <br /> Button ($402.35) <br /> SB ($457) <br /> BB ($200) <br /> <br /> <span style="font-weight: bold">Preflop</span>: Hero is MP with <img src="images/smiles/c9.jpg" alt="9 of Clubs" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/sk.jpg" alt="King of Spades" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/cj.jpg" alt="Jack of Clubs" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/sq.jpg" alt="Queen of Spades" border="0" /> <br /> <span style="color: #666666"><span style="font-style: italic">1 fold</span></span>, <span style="color: #CC3333">Hero bets $7</span>, <span style="color: #666666"><span style="font-style: italic">1 fold</span></span>, <span style="color: #CC3333">Button raises to $22</span>, <span style="color: #666666"><span style="font-style: italic">2 folds</span></span>, Hero calls $15 <br /> <br /> <span style="font-weight: bold">Flop</span>: ($47) <img src="images/smiles/s10.jpg" alt="10 of Spades" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/ca.jpg" alt="Ace of Clubs" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/s9.jpg" alt="9 of Spades" border="0" /> <span style="color: #009B00">(2 players)</span> <br /> Hero checks, <span style="color: #CC3333">Button bets $38</span>, <span style="color: #CC3333">Hero raises to $110</span>, <span style="color: #CC3333">Button raises to $306</span>, Hero calls $78.05 (All-In) <br /> <br /> <span style="font-weight: bold">Turn</span>: ($423.10) <img src="images/smiles/c5.jpg" alt="5 of Clubs" border="0" /> <span style="color: #009B00">(2 players, 1 all-in)</span> <br /> <br /> <span style="font-weight: bold">River</span>: ($423.10) <img src="images/smiles/s2.jpg" alt="2 of Spades" border="0" /> <span style="color: #009B00">(2 players, 1 all-in)</span> <br /> <br /> <span style="font-weight: bold">Total pot:</span> $423.10 <span style="font-weight: bold">| Rake:</span> $3 <br /> <br /> Results: <br /> Button mucked <img src="images/smiles/h6.jpg" alt="6 of Hearts" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/d3.jpg" alt="3 of Diamonds" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/da.jpg" alt="Ace of Diamonds" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/sa.jpg" alt="Ace of Spades" border="0" /> (three of a kind, Aces). <br /> Hero had <img src="images/smiles/c9.jpg" alt="9 of Clubs" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/sk.jpg" alt="King of Spades" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/cj.jpg" alt="Jack of Clubs" border="0" />, <img src="images/smiles/sq.jpg" alt="Queen of Spades" border="0" /> (flush, King high). <br /> Outcome: Hero won $420.10
Preflop: Against almost anyone, the 3bet is AAxx. KQJ9 double suited is a huge ace-cracker hand. I call every time. The only difference here is that Elmo noticed villain is multi-tabling, and has doubled up. That suggests he is at least decent and might be very good. That widens his range somewhat, but AAxx is still a huge part of it. For that very reason, I don't 4bet, giving him an opportunity to make this all-in preflop which he'd prefer. Rolf Slotboom has taught "us" to get at least 1/3 of our stack in preflop with aces, then a flop shove is almost always mathematically correct. If we call, villain only gets 10% of effective stacks in - we win this round. Further, I am better than villain (I may not be, but that's my thought process). I want to know 7/9ths of the cards so I can make the better decisions.
<br /> <br /> On the flop, there is no single hand that villain can have that I'm afraid of except <img src="images/smiles/da.jpg" alt="Ace of Diamonds" border="0" /> <img src="images/smiles/sa.jpg" alt="Ace of Spades" border="0" /> <img src="images/smiles/cq.jpg" alt="Queen of Clubs" border="0" /> <img src="images/smiles/sj.jpg" alt="Jack of Spades" border="0" /> for top set, a similar straight draw, and a better flush draw. I want the chips IN. <br /> <br /> As played, <br /> <br /> </span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>Code:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="code">http://twodimes.net/h/?z=6761109 <br /> pokenum -o ks qs jc 9c - as ad 3d 6h -- ac ts 9s <br /> Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Ts 9s Ac <br /> cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV <br /> Ks Qs Jc 9c 468 57.07 352 42.93 0 0.00 0.571 <br /> As Ad 3d 6h 352 42.93 468 57.07 0 0.00 0.429</td> </tr></table> <br /> <br /> In my example worst hand, <br /> <br /> </span><table width="90%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" align="center"><tr> <td><span class="genmed"><b>Code:</b></span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="code">http://twodimes.net/h/?z=6761145 <br /> pokenum -o ks qs jc 9c - as ad qc js -- ac ts 9s <br /> Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Ts 9s Ac <br /> cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV <br /> Ks Qs Jc 9c 117 14.27 587 71.59 116 14.15 0.213 <br /> As Js Qc Ad 587 71.59 117 14.27 116 14.15 0.787</td> </tr></table> <br /> <br /> I guess I shouldn't have shown that last one, because it's scary, but that's an absolute worst case. If he has that, nh. <br /> <br /> I want all the chips in on this flop. The only thing I do differently is bet rather than check-raise. If he really does have AAxx, he'll raise for me, then my 3bet is all in. It probably doesn't matter though, as we'll get them in somehow. <br /> <br /> Question: what would you do if the flop was <img src="images/smiles/ca.jpg" alt="Ace of Clubs" border="0" /> <img src="images/smiles/dj.jpg" alt="Jack of Diamonds" border="0" /> <img src="images/smiles/d10.jpg" alt="10 of Diamonds" border="0" /> ? “We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work...We have never made good on our promises…we have just as much unemployment as when we started…And an enormous debt to boot!” - Henry Morgenthau, SecTreas for FDR, 1939
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