ITH Poker Forum

[Dogs]

A couple of weeks to go, time for a thread.

From what I've seen, it's pretty clear that the best 3 teams are from the southern hemisphere. Three years ago I tipped a young Australian side to come good for this tournament… I'm not convinced they're there, but think they're the team most likely to topple NZ. The win today will have given them confidence, but I suspect it may actually work in the All Blacks' favour. When they lost to South Africa, it was just a note that their second string side aren't as clinical at finishing as the first team; following it up with a loss to Australia will probably serve as a warning that they need to be at their best from the first minute. Australia showed that on their day they are good enough to beat anyone, but I don't think they're consistent enough. Quade Cooper is symbolic of the team - flashes of genius one minute, followed by something distinctly below average the next.

In the north no one looks like a serious contender. England are the strongest of the home nations, though lack invention in attack and have some worrying moments at the back. Wales and Ireland have both been better in recent years. Scotland are improving, but scoring tries is still a problem. I've hardly seen anything of France since the 6 Nations, but whilst you wouldn't put it past them to have one brilliant performance, it's a stretch to see them playing well for the entire tournament. On the plus side, at least being limited to a squad of 30 means Lievremont will have to keep a somewhat consistent selection.


Pool A
This one should be the most straight forward. None of Canada, Japan and Tonga should be strong enough to challenge, so it's New Zealand and France to progress.

Pool B
Probably the weakest pool. Argentina aren't the same force they were 4 years ago, and Romania and Georgia should just be making up the numbers. England to top the pool, and I fancy Scotland to pip Argentina for the second spot - in the past they were liable to have a shock result against a minnow, but I think they're too defensively sound now.

Pool C
Australia to win it, with either Ireland or Italy to follow. I think Ireland should have enough as Italy are nowhere near as strong when they're not at home, but it wouldn't be a big shock after Ireland's warm up.

Pool D
Toughest group by far. South Africa should top it, with Namibia as the whipping boys, but the other 3 teams all have a chance. I think Samoa, Wales, Fiji, in that order; Wales aren't the worst of the home nations, but I think they're most likely to go home early.


Overall it's still New Zealand's to lose, with Australia as main competitors. Part of me thinks that if Dan Carter doesn't win the World Cup before he retires - especially in that team - then some sort of injustice is being done. But strange thinks happen at the World Cup: a very mediocre England showed that by making the final in 2007. Let's hope this bunch somehow does it again.

[PauliF]

wish there was a like button

[Piemaster]

Overall it's still New Zealand's to lose, with Australia as main competitors.

Reminds me of 2007

And 2003

[nsidestrate]

I'm not even 100% sure what sport we are talking about, but I still think New Zealand is a lock. I think it must be rugby, because I seem to recall a cricket world cup already taking place this year. I feel like England made an ignoble exit, but it was widely ignored by you lot. Is this rugby union or the other one? I'm quite astonished to see that the US has a team. I think AuPanner told me that we mostly play union, but I was pretty drunk at the time.

I literally have only ever heard the name on one rugby team ever. They are from New Zealand, hence I think they must win.

[PauliF]

Yeah it is Union

League is crap

Only sport I actually follow to some extent

Kiwis are far and away the best team in world. It is pretty much always their's to lose.

Rugby is the defacto religion for them.

However, they seem to get world cup nerves and England always seem to get a world cup magical run of form and passion

I love world cup rugby

[Piemaster]

Strangely, I have never heard anyone accuse the New Zealand Rugby team of being overpaid primadonas who have no pride and don't care about playing for their country.

[Dogs]

I'm quite astonished to see that the US has a team.

Not only that, but they have a genuine chance of winning a game. The US are in pool C with Australia, Ireland, Italy and Russia. Something most spectacular would have to happen for against the first three, but in June the US beat Russia 32-25. I even watched that game (from the safety of my sofa), and remember it being pretty entertaining.

Whilst your team aren't that great, you do have one of the fastest players in the world in Takudzwa Ngwenya. He burst onto the scene at the last World Cup when he skinned Bryan Habana, though my favourite try was for his club side Biarritz when he did the same to Shane Williams.

[leofric]

Personally I think Scotland could be dark horses if they can just find a way to actually score a try. Defence is pretty solid as Ireland found out recently and then they just rely on a big pack to win penalties within kicking distance..... sound familiar? Trouble is if they dont beat top the Group there is a fair chance of getting the All Blacks.

Wales v Fiji could be interesting as both teams like to throw it around a bit, I think Wales should be too strong but then again I thought that 4 years ago.

Overall I agree New Zealdand should be favourites but I still fancy the Aussies to throw a spanner in the works.

[Dogs]

Personally I think Scotland could be dark horses

Now that is a bold prediction!

I got Russia in the office sweepstake today. Fortunately we don't have many gamblers, so it only cost me a pound.

[Piemaster]

Personally I think Scotland could be dark horses

Now that is a bold prediction!

I actually have Scotland as the 'big name' team most likely to bounce out in the group stages. But who knows, they always seem to play well against England, so they could even finish top of the group.

[PauliF]

STFU

come on England

[leofric]

Personally I think Scotland could be dark horses

Now that is a bold prediction!

I actually have Scotland as the 'big name' team most likely to bounce out in the group stages. But who knows, they always seem to play well against England, so they could even finish top of the group.

I just think England and Argentina have a "straight down the middle" approach to attacking which should suit Scotlands defence down to the ground. Their pack wont be completely overrun either so IMO the games should be close which always gives them a chance of nicking it.

[Dogs]

And we're off! I'm not working today so have watched the opening game. Not sure what we can take from it, to be honest: NZ can play better, but when a team has already won the game in the first half, it's difficult to judge the second half performance. Tonga held up well: I thought fitness may be a problem in the last 20, but that wasn't the case at all.

Looking forward to England in the morning!

[Dogs]

Curious article by the Beeb:

Could rugby union take off in the US?

In particular, I found this picture odd:



An average distance covered of 0.19 miles sounds daft. I'm assuming they're only counting time when the ball is live, but that still sounds very low as an average distance when the likes of the Wide Receiver is clearly going to cover much more than that.

I also find the average heights of both sports below what I would expect.

[Piemaster]

An average distance covered of 0.19 miles sounds daft.

It does to me too. I used to play offensive line, who run less distance by far than any other position on the field (other than maybe DT), yet I would say that I would run a minimum of 5 yards each play while the ball was live. Given each offence will play an average of about 65 plays per game, that would mean I travelled a bare minimum of 325 yards per game, which is already close to 0.19 miles. And that is not even taking into account punts (where I would probably run about 40 yards), pulling plays or ones where I was assigned to block a LB (up to 15 yards) and plays where the RB breaks a long gain or the QB chucks an interception (anything up to 50+ yards). And remember, this is the position on the field that runs the least distance in the game.

In short this figure is complete bollocks.