ITH Poker Forum

[Dogs]

one thing tho.... is it just me or was there an extraodinary number of kicks hitting the uprights in this world cup?.... it happens now and again usually but I dunno it feels like it happened a lot more than usual this tourny

If only we knew someone good at statistics who could run some sort of model and tell us if it was an anomaly...

And if you can't be bothered with that, you could alway try asking Jerry:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/9622421.stm

Go on fella, see your name in lights.

[PauliF]

LOL ... thanks fella you made me actually LOL there....

a couple of problems... firstly I have no idea how to collect the data.... the statisical analysis would actually be quite simple... you could do it by match or by minute played...whatever... it could be a straightforward binomial model or a waiting time Poisson approach.... in any cse as my grandmother used to say... "in the house of the cobbler... the shoes are never mended"....

anyway the data remains the issue.... I have asked Jeremy...

but seriously do you not think it seemed to happen a LOT this time?

and dammit if I was the only the one who noticed... I have been trying not to notice this kind of thing all the time... I have also been trying to not add up the numbers on number plates as I see cars... and then try and remember the sequence of added up numbers.... I have been quite unsuccesful with both...

[Dogs]

Don't you worry Pauli, I thought that too. I do wonder if it was just a matter of so many games in a short period of time, but it did seem odd. I mean, I don't think they made the ball any bigger or posts any wider or put some magnetic substance in the two that made them attract. I've also submitted a question on it to the Beeb... hopefully it'll be a quiet news week next week.

You're on your own with the number plates, mind.

[Piemaster]

Actually it wouldn't be easy to do statistically at all. You have a comparatively low sample size and it's not easy to draw the line about which kicks should 'count'. Like if someone has a kick right in front of the goal then they would be very unlikely to hit the posts even if they were six foot wide.

[PauliF]

nah....

I am interested in all occasions the ball hit the upright... it doesnt matter where from

also quite a lot of data.... 42 matches times 80 minutes vs all rugby games ever... well enough data to draw some conclusions

[Piemaster]

Oh yeah, if you're looking at all games ever to create a H0 probability then sure. But testing whether this World Cup has an abnormally large number is where the low sample size problem comes in.

[PauliF]

dunno

42 matches is a lot.... once you have established your H0 per game rate then it should be fairly easy. thing is the probability is low. like less than 1 a game... significantly less I am guessing but I have no real idea hence the discussion...

I recon in 42 games we should be expecting 3 or 4 total.... vs the 40 or so we saw... that is significant

[Dogs]

Rolland has finally commented on the red card:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_u ... 730109.stm

He's effectively been bailed out by Warburton stating he deserved it (whether he believes it or not), but I was somewhat intrigued by this part:

"We can only officiate on the action itself and what he did merited what happened next because it was dangerous," Rolland told the Western Mail.

"Did he mean to do it? Was it intentional or unintentional?

"We don't officiate on intention, we officiate on the action itself.

First thing that occurred to me: how about a deliberate knock-on then?

Something else I was thinking whilst watching the Heineken Cup over the weekend: is rugby going the same way as football where the top European club games are played at a higher standard than internationals? I'm not suggesting that any team is ready to beat the All Blacks yet, but the rugby on show this weekend was a damned sight more exciting than most of the World Cup matches. Maybe it's the pressure, maybe a sign of things to come.