ITH Poker Forum

[kinnipak]

I have an offer from BDog for a free bet on the Champions League Semis.

Sadly, My knowledge of teams is more from history these days than how they actually stand.

Where would your money go?

Tuesday, April 17
Bayern Munich (+165) vs Real Madrid (+165)
Draw (+240)

Wednesday, April 18
Chelsea (+400) vs Barcelona (-145)
Draw (+290)

My Stinks..(instincts) tell me Real Madrid? But for a freebie..can I pass up Chelsea?

[nsidestrate]

Real is a slight favorite over the course of the home and home series, but I think Munich is a slight favorite tomorrow at home. I see Munich at +170 and Real at +175, draw +250. I'd either take Munich or if you want a bigger payout take the draw. Real would be perfectly happy with a 1-1 draw. I'm looking forward to watching this one and my gut instinct is that Munich is going to win.

Chelsea are huge underdogs. They haven't had a particularly good year and Barcelona is the best team in the world. I suspect that Barcelona will kill them, but Chelsea is at Stamford Bridge and it seems weak to take a -145 freeplay. Although Chelsea have fared fairly poorly in the Premier League this season, they reached the FA Cup final by demolishing Tottenham and it looks like Torres might be back against Barca. However, I still expect Barca to spank them, especially since Chelsea seem to have injury issues in defense.

[Misunderstud]

I don't know what those odds mean in real money, but if Chelsea are 4-1 to beat Barca at home that's ridiculously generous. Barca aren't going to spank them. Failing that, I'd go for a draw in Germany. (Nside, the fact that you use 'them' to describe what you insist is a singular noun just demonstrates how wrong-headed that assertion is )

[leofric]

Given the odds (or at least my interpretation of them!) Chelsea would easily be the call. Home advantage, a score to settle, Barca having "el classico" coming up on saturday - I think the odds seem to overvalue Barcelona's "best team in the world" status.

They are the better team and should be favourites but by that much?

[nsidestrate]

Odds translation for limeys:

Barca 7/10 (technically 69/100)
Chelsea 4/1
draw 29/10

Bayern won as I expected and I think the best hope for Chelsea is a home draw. The English have an exaggerated sense of the superiority of the Premier League and always drive the odds up for English sides. I think you could make money taking the other side every time. I think they are really more like 5 or 6 to 1. I understand if you want to chase the longshot, but for me I'd take the draw and hope Messi sprains his ankle or something. They will figure that they can afford to tie at Stamford Bridge, I suppose.

[superwomble]

How about the 'draw no bet' market?

[mconstab]

I'd look to get on Chelsea if I had a free bet. Whilst Barca are clearly a great team I've seen a lot of them away from home this season and despite picking up results they've looked far from convincing. The Stamford Bridge pitch always looks narrow to me and Barca at their best need space out wide to utilise Dani Alves. That being said I've jumped on Barca at 6/4 on Paddy Power.

[the_hawk]

Odds translation for limeys:

Barca 7/10 (technically 69/100)
Chelsea 4/1
draw 29/10

Bayern won as I expected and I think the best hope for Chelsea is a home draw. The English have an exaggerated sense of the superiority of the Premier League and always drive the odds up for English sides. I think you could make money taking the other side every time. I think they are really more like 5 or 6 to 1. I understand if you want to chase the longshot, but for me I'd take the draw and hope Messi sprains his ankle or something. They will figure that they can afford to tie at Stamford Bridge, I suppose.

lol "expert" assessment (Happy Birthday btw!)

[leofric]

I so informed you thusly

[nsidestrate]

Odds translation for limeys:

Barca 7/10 (technically 69/100)
Chelsea 4/1
draw 29/10

Bayern won as I expected and I think the best hope for Chelsea is a home draw. The English have an exaggerated sense of the superiority of the Premier League and always drive the odds up for English sides. I think you could make money taking the other side every time. I think they are really more like 5 or 6 to 1. I understand if you want to chase the longshot, but for me I'd take the draw and hope Messi sprains his ankle or something. They will figure that they can afford to tie at Stamford Bridge, I suppose.

lol "expert" assessment (Happy Birthday btw!)

results oriented thinking. Thanks for the good wishes.

[kinnipak]

Odds translation for limeys:

Barca 7/10 (technically 69/100)
Chelsea 4/1
draw 29/10

Bayern won as I expected and I think the best hope for Chelsea is a home draw. The English have an exaggerated sense of the superiority of the Premier League and always drive the odds up for English sides. I think you could make money taking the other side every time. I think they are really more like 5 or 6 to 1. I understand if you want to chase the longshot, but for me I'd take the draw and hope Messi sprains his ankle or something. They will figure that they can afford to tie at Stamford Bridge, I suppose.

lol "expert" assessment (Happy Birthday btw!)

results oriented thinking. Thanks for the good wishes.

If you havn't had a good laugh today, here is my present to you.

My plan was to play it on Chelsea since I had zero to lose...and I completely forgot to place it.

Happy Birthday!

[Misunderstud]

[kinnipak]

well said