ITH Poker Forum

[Bullajami]

Why wait to start this thread?

Here's my opening salvo:
Despite the 2010 census moving about 5-8 electoral votes to states that normally vote Republican, I can't see any of the current challenger-wanna-bes unseating President Obama. To win it the Republicans will have to flip Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, and a few others. I don't see it happening.

I think those will be the key battleground states. I'm watching for Obama to announce some new projects in one or two of those states in the late spring, before the conventions. Federal dollars = jobs = content voters. The Republicans will spend furiously in those states, will likely flip a couple, but come up short in November.

Unless something huge happens.

[darvon]

We should rename The Republican Party to The Washington Generals Party.

[darvon]

There ARE no key battleground states.

Romney won't carry his own state.

50 - 0 is a real possibility.

BUT Republicans will make House gains and maybe senate gains.

[darvon]

I would like to state for the record that somewhere in here is my posts of 2 years ago stating Obama wins.

[darvon]

Unless something huge happens.

I can't think of one huge thing that would flip the result.

[Bullajami]

Post count padding?

There ARE no key battleground states....50 - 0 is a real possibility.

I disagree. America has now seen the difference between The Wonderfully Charismatic Candidate Obama and the Humanly Flawed President Obama. President Obama spent a lot of borrowed money and the economy has not recovered to the degree promised.

Additionally, the Democratic base was very enthusiastic in 2008. Not so this go 'round. The deluded masses who truly believed they were going to get change you can believe in are feeling a tad betrayed. Hell, you've even got Nadersidestrate talking about Ron Paul in the other thread. The Dems are going to spend a significant amount of time and money urging their base to get out and vote on election day.

I think it will be a bit closer than last time, but Obama still wins. Candidate Obama is too likable.

[darvon]

OK. Money, mouth, you know the drill.

You want electoral college or popular vote?

[Bullajami]

I'll take either.

[nsidestrate]

OK. Money, mouth, you know the drill.

You want electoral college or popular vote?

You seriously want to wager that Romney gets exactly zero electoral college votes? That's free money. There are states where Hitler would beat Obama.

[darvon]

Not for straight odds.

And probably not at al

But I would take Obama and give 8 pct points. What's the London Line?

[nsidestrate]

Not for straight odds.

And probably not at al

But I would take Obama and give 8 pct points. What's the London Line?

That's a significantly watered down bet. Now you are just predicting Obama will win the popular vote by something close to the margin he won the last election by. Although I'd still prefer the Romney side in that wager.

[PizzaByNight]

After a much stronger than expected employment report this morning, the Intrade contract on Obama has jumped to 56.6% from 54% at the end of January.

Clinton didn't turn out to be an impediment to the progress of the Dow Jones Industrials and neither has Obama. I guess a second term wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

[nsidestrate]

Clinton didn't turn out to be an impediment to the progress of the Dow Jones Industrials and neither has Obama. I guess a second term wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

As a liberal, there is something I just don't understand that I hope someone on ITH can clarify for me. I understand why most of the ideologically pure conservatives are unelectable for one reason or another this year, but I really don't understand why Romney is so unpopular with a lot of the party faithful, particularly the evangelicals. He appears to me to espouse positions on the "right side" of every significant issue for the religious right. Is it that he seems to represent the old guard of super-rich Republicans? Is it that he is Mormon and people figure that is a wacky religion? Is it the whole Romneycare thing?

Right now it looks its going to be an election between candidates who have alienated their party's respective outliers who will get lukewarm turnouts on both sides. At the moment, the screeching diatribes on my Facebook feed are pretty evenly divided between my pinko friends who *hate* Obama and my redneck friends who *hate* Obama.

[Piscivorous]

To partially answer nside's query about Romney, I think Rush pointed it out in simplistic detail a few months ago. You win the GOP Nomination running to the right. You win the General Election running to the center. Romney hasn't proven to conservatives that he has any conservative credentials. Romney care is ObamarCare light. Romney's stances in the past on abortion is appalling to most conservatives.

This is going to be a long drawn out, ugly fight. Much like Obama/Clinton four years ago, but with an added catch. There are so many proportioned primaries/caucuses that it's possible the GOP will have no clear cut winner with 1,144 delegates by Tampa.

As far as why the GOP doesn't get a good conservative candidate? They fund the moderate GOPer. The establishment GOP is virtually indistinguishable from the Democrat party. It would take an enormous amount of non-GOP funds to give a true conservative a fighting chance, simply because they get outspent. For every Gingrich ad. commercial or spot in the media in Florida, there were 65 Romney ads. That's difficult to overcome.

Since we're making predictions. Obama loses. Conservatives will get behind any GOP nominee in order to defeat Obama. President Obama's sheen has worn off. Independents are leaving him.

Let's not forget that until the economic recession and collapse of the housing market, McCain was leading.

After a much stronger than expected employment report this morning,

So who do we believe? 1.2 million people dropped out of the work force rather than continue to look for non-existent work. These numbers aren't counted in the unemployment numbers. The real U-6 numbers are above 15% and even the CBO says the real unemployment rate if you count people who have given up looking is at 10%.

Then again, the majority of lemmings [or both parties] are more intent on what clothes Kim Kardashian might be wearing or whether Snookie has a new boyfriend.....

[PizzaByNight]

For me it’s Romneycare. Obamacare was one of the key showdowns in the previous Congress and I think the issue still radiates and may sway some voters in November. So how can Romney join that fight when his previous actions leave him standing flatfooted. And, in general, I don’t sense that he has much in the way of the “fire and fight” that I’d like to see in my candidate. However, when he was roughed up in the press recently over his level of income and corresponding tax rate, I was surprised to find myself rooting for him for the first time. There are few things I hate more than high taxes and the wealth police. But that’s me – I doubt that sentiment is widely shared.

why Romney is so unpopular with a lot of the party faithful, particularly the evangelicals.

I imagine that many would regard his switch from pro-choice to pro-life as opportunistic and could hardly bear to embrace him. I hadn’t really thought about the Mormon angle, but I know from encounters with folks-of-the-faith around here that there can be an entrenched lack of tolerance towards the Mormons. It’s not like the mild disdain that a Baptist might have towards the Presbyterians. It’s more like the visceral reaction that one would have towards a cult. I could see where fervent evangelicals would trouble turning the switch on for Romney like they did for Bush.

After a much stronger than expected employment report this morning,

So who do we believe? 1.2 million people dropped out of the work force rather than continue to look for non-existent work. These numbers aren't counted in the unemployment numbers. The real U-6 numbers are above 15% and even the CBO says the real unemployment rate if you count people who have given up looking is at 10%.

You may be right. But if we’re hoping for Obama to be unseated, the chief factor that we’d want to have working in our favor is voter dissatisfaction with the economy. We’d want the data points to continue to paint a bleak picture. While this morning’s report might not reflect the true unemployment rate, it did show that jobs were added at a faster pace than expected and is a data point suggesting the economy is on the improve, which would be good for the incumbent.

More significant for me than the report itself was the market’s reaction to the report. We’ve had a sharply rising market for 3 months now and one of the sharpest traders I follow was suggesting that any positive reaction to the report be shorted. We did get a 100 point Dow bounce right at the open, setting up a perfect buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news opportunity. But it didn’t happen this time as the market continued to build on its gains throughout the day. What that tells me is that the market is in the process of discounting a significant improvement in the economy and if that discounting is happening in early February, there’s time for the mood of the electorate to soften come November. So, yeah, I’m a wuss for the throwing-my-hands-up reaction in the previous post but I’m conditioned to try to sniff out inflection points and discount the future. The Intrade reaction suggests it was such an inflection point.