ITH Poker Forum

[darvon]

I don't have ANY numbers to back this up. I wish I did. But I don't have any numbers to dispute this either so here goes.

I am going to define a voter by two criteria. 1) Their historical pattern for voting for US Congressional seats. 2) Whether or not they vote in the upcoming election.


Why did I pick US Congress? Because House Rep is a non-executive position, they don't actually DO much, or rather have specific actions associated with them. Govs and Prez preside over the ship of state, and thus economic results tend to accrue to them, which can effect voting. House Reps are more or less characterized by their issue beliefs reflected in thier voting patterns and speeches. So voting for Rep is more aligned with ideology rather than results.

I will call someone who has voted with Party X more than 2/3s of the history as a X voter. Someone who has voted BOTH for X and Y more than 1/3 of the time an Independent or I. X and Y are the two major US parties D and R.


My model is that in the US there are about 50% D, half of which vote usually. 45% R, slightly more than half of which vote usually. and 5% (or less) I, and I have no clue how much they vote.


Now in PRESIDENTIAL politics I think there is a significant breed....the Crossover voter.

This is a person who is an X voter, but will crossover and vote Y for Pres this time. I think this phenomenon is significant from time to time. It is also 1 way. In a particular election 10% of X may crossover to Y, but the dynamics of that election will dictate than very little Y will cross to X. Y may stay home, but not crossover.

So how big is this crossover vote? i am thinking it might be as much as 5% of the vote, which is 10% of Party X voters.

This can help to explain both why the White House party in power is sort of fluid and cyclic, and the House party representing District Z is glacial in changing.

This might also account for the fact that 113% of people self-identify as Independent or Swing. They might have actually swung once or twice in a 5 presidential (or Gubenatorial) history. But they are still X voters.


In the current election, there may be Obama votes that have voted 5 times for their R congresscritter. But there are no McCain democrats. There were Reagan Democrats and Clinton Republicans in 92. There were no Bush Democrats in 92.

Is it useful to court these "Crossover" voters. Not usually. As I stated, they only appear on one side, because of particular dynamics in a certain year, with a certain candidate. It's probably much better to try to motivate your captive party couch sitters to get up and vote. Or at least get them to fill out the paperwork so Acorn can vote for them. 2nd best strategy is try to get the other party's voters to stay seated.