ITH Poker Forum

[nyanks98]

Now, this is a very small sample size (245 hands), but the statistics are quite weird and maybe it will shed some light on why I'm sucking (Overall, -22 BB/100)



Incredibly, I have negative BB/100 from the Button through the next 4 spots, and Postive BB/100 for the rest of the table (the worse spots). I've called or raised from the Button 43% of the time, and I've won only 10% of my hands from there. 43% sounds pretty high, am I playing too loose from there? Overall I'm playing under 32% of the hands.

Of all the possible Ace hands and King hands, I'm only in the green for 4 of them (and 2 of them are BARELY over 0). I've also only won 12.5% of my showdowns with one pair, losing 67 dollars with them.

So what does this mean?
A. I'm playing too many hands in LP
B. I'm staying in with good starting hands too long
C. Both of these are true
D. The sample is too small to conclude anything

Your thoughts?

[fatshaft]

I would say all are correct, especially the small sample size.

The worrying thing you say is that of all the A&K hands stats. Does this mean you will always play any ace or any king?

If so this is a MASSIVE leak, and you need to address this pronto. You are overvaluing these hands massively.

[nyanks98]

I would say all are correct, especially the small sample size.

The worrying thing you say is that of all the A&K hands stats. Does this mean you will always play any ace or any king?

If so this is a MASSIVE leak, and you need to address this pronto. You are overvaluing these hands massively.

No, I'll pretty much only play A9 and lower or K9 and lower on the blinds, or if they're suited and I can call for cheap. So that's not the problem. I probably do overvalue KTo though, I think I've taken a few beatings with that one.

[BernardDogs]

INo, I'll pretty much only play A9 and lower or K9 and lower on the blinds, or if they're suited and I can call for cheap. So that's not the problem. I probably do overvalue KTo though, I think I've taken a few beatings with that one.

The good news is, you're evaluating your stats and are looking for leaks.

Yes ... you're playing too many hands.

I don't know what you mean by playing A9/K9 or lower on the blinds. Does that mean you'll stay with those hands from the blinds even if you're raised? Does that mean you'll complete the SB with any Ax or Kx?

If so, stop doing that. K/T and K/J are big trap hands ... if you're playing them with a raise, you're only mixing it up with hands that have you dominated. Axsuited can be played a bit more, but you must know when to drop it, and you may want to hold off until you trust your flop play a bit more. Even then, it works best from late position with a lot of limpers and should be dropped to early raisers.

It sounds like you're chasing too much. Do you have the odds to call bets to a backdoor flush or straight draw (you rarely will)? Do you have a solid handle on how many outs you have and when they're counterfeited? Do you know how the pot odds compared to the odds of making your hand? These are crucial components to stop chasing leaks.

Spend some time re-reading Matthew's starting hand charts (or reading them if you've not already done so). These need to become second nature to you. Until they become second nature, tape the charts to your computer ... also tape the Odds chart. Soon, you'll seen the outs reapeating themself and you'll recognize them instantly.

DO NOT expand your starting hands from Matthew's charts for at least three months (preferably longer). Get accustomed to what it feels to fold hand after hand after hand after hand. While you're doing this, WATCH AND LEARN betting patterns of your opponents on the flops. When do people fold? When do they check-raise? When does a hand get capped? How does betting on the turn differ from betting on the flop? As you get more comfortable, then start to open up your starting hand requirements ... but not until then.

You've definitely got some leaks ... we all do. It's how you're losing your roll. Post some specific hands in the Limit hand section ... the ones you lose as well as the ones you win. Then listen to the advice from the posters you trust.

It's a constant cycle of evaluating and improving.

BD

[marcstck]

I'd say you need to play much tighter. KTo is not really a playable hand in my book. If you're seeing over 30% of the flops, you're looking for trouble, unless you are very very good at playing post flop. I typically see flops 20-25% of the time, sometimes less.

Patience is the key here. Wait for a good hand, and hammer the opposition with it. If you feel the need to play "off" hands, wait until the blinds to do it.

Also, your sample size is indeed tiny. A few good nights and those stats could be totally reversed. Especially if you tighten up a bit...

[SteveGriff]

Yeah play tighter and get over 1500 hands and then check your stats again. And play your good hands aggressively (but don't overplay them!)

Griff Steve

[nyanks98]

Bernard,

I won't play Ax or Kx for a raise, but I will always complete from the small blind. I realize these hands are not good, and even if I hit the Ace or King on the flop I'm still wary.

Hands like KJ, KT and KQ are definitly a problem for me, particularly KQ. I seem to play that hand a lot when there's a smallish raise and often get beat by AQ or AK. I've had trouble figuring how to decide whether I'm up against a dominating hand or just some PP. It's particularly hard at these lower limits (I went down to $10 NL) because they'll raise with anything.

Drawing for cards hasn't appeared to be my problem. My HUGE problem is losing with one pair, I've lost something like $70. I guess I am overconfident when I have TP/TK, but I've lost some real big ones simply losing to inferior hands that get nice flops. I really haven't figured out when my TP/TK isn't good enough, other than particularly scary boards.

I haven't gotten Matthew's book yet...I hoped to get it for free when I signed up for shitty Pacific Poker, but somehow they're screwing me and say I didn't sign up properly to get the gift. They say I can also get it with Party or Empire, but I already have an account at Party so I'm not sure if I can do it

Overall I guess I need to tighten up more and get a better feel for when I'm beat.

[marcstck]

TPTK isn't much of a hand in NL, when faced with any aggression. If somebody raises you, chances are that they're saying they can beat TPTK. AK and AQ are always problem hands for me, because when I hit my pair on the flop, I feel like it's a bagged hand, when in fact all I have is TPTK, which can be beat by all sorts of stuff. I've started treating Big Slick and Big Chick as drawing hands, especially when they're suited...

[nyanks98]

My winning % with AKo was 16% after 8 hands! I hear a lot of people complaining that they get killed with AK. Maybe we should all be seeing it as a drawing hand (although drawing for a straight is tough with those cards is tough, too).

[justthedude]

AK is a drawing hand. It’s the starting hand that I see misplayed more than any other. In my opinion, if you don’t hit on the flop, you should almost always throw away the hand. My notes on players frequently includes how they play AK. You can make a lot of money off of those who cant seem to fold this hand.