ITH Poker Forum

[chrisjp]

Hero was one of the chip leaders going into Day 2, but has fallen on hard times. He is not reticent about letting everyone know that.

Hero is OTB with

We are playing 1000/2000a300 and there are about 200 players remaining. We are well into the money. Both the blinds are clueless tight players. Hero has 15,200 or just over 7.5BBs. The blinds are going up to 1200/2400a300 in 20 minutes.

Ten handed and it folds to CO who pushes 17,100 chips. You haven't seen CO play any hands but you've only been here for two orbits. He looks just like your typical Senior meatball, but you have absolutely no idea how he plays other than he's done nothing for two orbits. In the two orbits that you have played you have doubled up the SB twice by calling his 3-bet pushes. Both times you were greatly outgunned when he showed QQ and beat you. Both blinds are clearly clueless overly tight players.

Your move....

Chris

[taz115]

For me this is a fold, that should be the standard line/response here I suspect. I do think I remember this hand from one of your TRs though so I guess we'll see if I learn something here.

[philhux]

snap fold

not even a decision!

you still have some fold equity

especially against old nits!

[chrisjp]

Hero called and the blinds folded. As the big blind folded hero said, "I hope I have two live unders." Hero is getting 1.4-1 if the blinds fold. Is this good enough? Elmo and I discussed this for a while.

Chris

[philhux]

I think it's a mistake even though you have equity - I'd rather jam the next hand blind if it folded to us maybe don't even have to have a showdown

[chrisjp]

I don't think a call is horrid, but it is clearly wrong. He has part of it right. 97s is not that bad a hand against a wide range. But is CO's range wide? Not likely....this is the Seniors. Plus you have lots of FE in the Seniors with 7.5BBs. You have some 3-bet folding equity.

I was the CO and showed. . Board ran

Another losing flip although K8o is only 56% here. The hero was guilty of being too impatient. But it paid off this time. This was my only flip in two days. 0/1

Wow was I surprised that I was ahead when he called me.

[redman7027]

I actual think his play is good because it recognizes that blinds are going up in 20 minutes and he will have like 6 blinds. He has to make a move very quick in like 8 hands or less. I am not exactly sure how may hands you can get in 20 minutes but live not that many. This is as good a spot as any. In this situation he has to be willing to take a negative EV proposition. Another huge factor in his decision should be the play at the table. How often in the next 8 hands will he get the chance to be 1st in and if he pushes with any 2 what is the likely hood that he will be called.

In my post regarding the 100K on bodog I had more time because I had 10 blinds and online you get so many hands in. I actual think I should have waited for all the reasons that were stated mostly because I agree with Radford. I probably at the time over estimated the fold equity I had.

[philhux]

Heavily disagree.

Hard to compare live poker against a bunch of old men vs an online tournament.

In Chris' example, the calling ranges of the people to an all in - even of 6-7bbs will in the most part be very tight - so you have excellent chance still to steal - at least for the next few hands until you take the blinds again.

Online this is mostly not the case.

I actual think his play is good because it recognizes that blinds are going up in 20 minutes and he will have like 6 blinds. He has to make a move very quick in like 8 hands or less. I am not exactly sure how may hands you can get in 20 minutes but live not that many. This is as good a spot as any. In this situation he has to be willing to take a negative EV proposition. Another huge factor in his decision should be the play at the table. How often in the next 8 hands will he get the chance to be 1st in and if he pushes with any 2 what is the likely hood that he will be called.

In my post regarding the 100K on bodog I had more time because I had 10 blinds and online you get so many hands in. I actual think I should have waited for all the reasons that were stated mostly because I agree with Radford. I probably at the time over estimated the fold equity I had.

[chrisjp]

I'm with phil here too.

red, the thing about the Seniors is the FE you still have with a short stack. 97s Guy had huge FE against the players on his left. Why risk it here, esp since a typical Senior, not me, is pushing from the CO with a range that probably averages like:

88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo

Some much tighter than this, and some much looser like me, but not many like me.

Against this range 97s is 2-1 dog. This is not good.

We were getting 30-35 hands per hour. Not many hands were going to the flop.

Chris

[redman7027]

Sounds like a nice game if they are that tight?

[Radford]

This is an easy fold. And i mean EASY. I know hero is short, but calling here is just silly imo. You're guranteed to be behind. I think i just wait until i am first in to push.

[philhux]

Almost makes you jealous of Chris for being eligible...

Almost

Sounds like a nice game if they are that tight?

[poker_Elmo]

Even in a normal tourney - I think I would wait to push than call with (or wait for a better hand to call off my chips with). I would much rather push first in a couple times in this orbit to try to build my stack up. (Even in a normal tourney).