ITH Poker Forum

[Martio8]

Without getting into specfics (yet) - Let's say I presented you with the following tournament choice...

You start the hand with 10BB (so fairly desperate).
You can accept or pass on the following wager...
A. You add 1/3 to your stack 50% of the time.
B. You double up (plus the blinds) 15% of the time
C. You bust out 35% of the time

EV is more or less nuetral = 1.33*0.50 + 2.15*0.15 + 0*0.35 = 0.988

Do you take the deal or pass it up and look for something better?

[nsidestrate]

Pretty sure that is a fold, because if you can get a fold 50% of the time, then you should be able to find a hand that is better than a 2:1 dog when called.

[Martio8]

Looks like you've deduced that this is some sort of pushing vs fold equity calculation.

Let's put that aside for now and ask ourselves in a general sense.
Is a 35% bustout percentage too high a risk for an average stack boost of 5BB? (when starting from 10BB)

[nsidestrate]

Looks like you've deduced that this is some sort of pushing vs fold equity calculation.

Let's put that aside for now and ask ourselves in a general sense.
Is a 35% bustout percentage too high a risk for an average stack boost of 5BB? (when starting from 10BB)

That's a very different question. In the new question your EV is 150% of your stack and in the old question your EV is 99% of your stack. If your EV is 150% of your stack, it is a no brainer shove.

[Martio8]

It's 150% when you win (2/3 of the time) and 0% when you lose (1/3 of the time) for a net of ~ 100% (or EV neutral)