ITH Poker Forum

[Newbatron]

Ok were at the FT of a $8 180man MTT on tilt with 4 left. I am 4/4 but not short stacked with just under 37bbs. The players left dont seem to have a great grasp of tourney end game play by limping, calling raises/bets with marginal hands etc. apart from the villain who has got the chip lead and has been aggressive punishing any weakness. I scoped him as well and he's a pretty consistent winner at these low stakes MTT's. Unfortunately he's to my left which sucks and the previous orbit I had limped J9s in the SB and called his pf raise but folded to a c bet.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 8.8 Tournament, 500/1000 Blinds 125 Ante (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) (t37644)
BB (t89502)
UTG (t43699)
Button (t53155)

Hero's M: 18.82

Preflop: Hero is SB with ,
2 folds, Hero bets t3000, BB raises to t89377 (All-In) Hero?

Standard to get it in here even this deep? If I fold I still have 34bbs which gives me room to exploit the two weaker players or is folding too weak if I want to stand up to the chip leader and give myself the best possible chance of finishing first? Considering the SB bet size I cant see the SB doing this with anything that is crushing me.

[Taardvark]

This is a tough spot. I think there are valid arguments to both a call and fold. Villian's shoving range here is likely wide enough that calling with A10 is probably mathematically correct. Someone will likely post the math here.

I would tend to lean toward a fold depending on a few factors. The first is how have the other 2 players been playing? Do they seem weak? Do they seem to be prone to making a disasterous mistake? I don't want to risk busting out in 4th here if these players will bust themselves with bad play. If the play is tough, I'd lean toward a call.

Another reason I think I'd lean toward a fold is I think we can get villian to overplay a spot again and get our money in better.

Either way, I don't think either play is wrong.

[MXRider]

Villain is playing a good ICM strategy it sounds and I think we have to fold here. You still have plenty of chips left to go with this trny.

[Newbatron]

how have the other 2 players been playing? Do they seem weak? Do they seem to be prone to making a disasterous mistake? I don't want to risk busting out in 4th here if these players will bust themselves with bad play. If the play is tough, I'd lean toward a call.

The other two players were pretty poor, not completely crazy or terrible but looked as tho they could get it in at any moment and they had passed their chips back and forth to each other regularly.

Therefore generally the play wasnt tough however having this guy to my left was tough. Anyone like a limp reraise here?

[MacTaiga]

I'd go with your read on the other players, if they're bad and/or taking risks then this is a fold for me. Otherwise I'm reluctantly calling because I doubt we're ahead but could easily be looking at a coin flip.

[chrisjp]

You are likely 50-50 against his range. Looks like a middle small pair or Ax where the x is slightly more likely to be lower than a ten, or KQ or something like that. It's an ICM fold esp if you feel you are better than the villains.

Another reason I think I'd lean toward a fold is I think we can get villian to overplay a spot again and get our money in better.

I agree with this big time also.

Fold and wait for a better situation. Looks like they might confront each other much more often than they should. That's great for you. You can afford to lose <10% of your stack here.

If you know the guy is super aggro then limp reraise is not bad as long as he is not stubborn. If you feel he will call you with almost any holding that he raises with well....then you have no folding equity so it's basically the same situation as you had to confront.

Chris

[redman7027]

I like a limp if I can't call a push. This is so read dependent put him on a range and go with it.

[Outlier]

I like the fold from a strategic point of view. I'd guess you're slight favorite vs villain's range, but the edge can't be enough when you consider the other two weaker players, and the fact that you are still plenty deep.

[Zenjo]

The villian seems like a LAG who's trying to run over the table. That means he has a wide range for his shove. I would be a lot more worried about his hand if he'd 3 bet to 8,000 or something. If he had a monster he probably would try not to scare you off.

Overall you're probably 50/50. A call is probably marginally +EV, but if you think you have a skill edge then you're deep enough to wait for a better spot. I'd call because I can't stand being pushed around.

[philhux]

It's a fold I think and not even close imo - the shove is so huge you are getting no odds to call and could easily be dominated or are flipping at best. Perhaps he has KQ but that's about it.

What's with the full 3x though??? That's a bit 2007 if you ask me