ITH Poker Forum

[redman7027]

My quest for cashing 3 weeks in a row at the 100K on bodog is over placed 127th.

The first table was totally brutal I had AA, KK, flopped a set of 4's with an 4KJ on the flop, top pair with a flush draw, 3 of a kind with 2nd kicker and ended up with 1/2 my stack and played some of my best poker. I am sure 95% would have busted. Just crazy and not just for me it was like a highlight real on TV. All coolers and suck outs. I have to admit although I did not play worse I was feeling the stress.

Anyway here is the hand I busted out on.

9 handed I have 10 blinds and am the SB.

All fold to the cut off who then raises about 2 1/2 blinds. He has been pretty quite not a stealer I actually thought he had a hand.

I am S/B with KJs

You move?
Fold /push /call?

[Radford]

Mehhhh. Close. But i think i fold.

[chrisjp]

Will he fold to your push like at least 25% of the time? Or never if he has a real hand. Got to be close. I'd lean to a push but a fold is fine too. Hate folding, but depends upon FE. If you have none then it's a fold.

If he raised with top 10% of the hands....given your description of him....then that's

88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo

He shouldn't be folding any of those. You are 5-3 dog against that range. So fold.

Chris

[the_hawk]

With 10BB I want to be open shoving at least if I don't have a monster. Being in the SB I think I can look for a spot in the next circuit.

[Newbatron]

Yeah think I fold because im assuming you have no FE. Better to fold and be first in when the next oppurtunity comes. You could also be dominated quite easily if you get called which you have to assume you will. If he'd been opening in late pos alot then you can get it in and maybe have some FE but with no reads its a fold IMO

[redman7027]

He flipped over AQ. My read on him was actually that he was tight and his betting range was also. But tight players usually fold more also. It is the spread between his betting range and calling range to my push that is critical. I have always had a difficult time determining that spread. This is one of the reasons I don’t push back that often. (Thoughts on the betting calling spread)

In tournaments it seems to me that at some point you need to get lucky. Your job while playing is to expose yourself to the best situations. Most of the time this means trying to see as many hands as possible before you take a shot hoping to get quality hands that are more profitable before you make a move. I had been between 10 to 25 blinds from very early in the tournament. Playing small stack poker open shoving with reasonable hands the entire game. I am pretty comfortable playing small stack poker but I am looking for opportunities to break out of the small stack range.

I am having difficulty knowing where these opportunities are best found and how to balance which are best.

I usually figure someone will call your open shove eventually and you can win one of those, you can play back some with a hand like this (preferable better), you can get a premium hand in positions an snap off another short stacks shove or slow play a monster sometimes when others won’t notice or be tipped off.
Any others?

When do you decide it is time to gamble? I think we would both agree that most gamble too early and are not patient enough but I am struggling with this decision. Should I not make this decision and just continue playing small stack open shoving poker until someone wakes up and calls me and wins or is there a point that you change your how tight loose you are based on the stage of the tournament? Mid /late / last 20 or 10, etc? Getting more aggressive before the bubble is a known concept. How do you change on the bubble? If you have established that you open push with 88+ AJ+ KQ+ from a specific position if pot is not opened do you then on the bubble open push with 77+ AT+ KJ+. for example or do you change in some other way (pushing any two on the button)?

There are a lot of questions in here and I hope to start a discussion. This is my current poker dilemma.

I know KJs was border line this was at the very bottom of my range to re-push. I do think he folds 15% of the time. If that is the break point I am ok with the decision. 25% I dont think he folds that often. Even with his call with a hand that is better than I thought he had AQ I am 40%. I was lucky he did not have me dominated with like AJ or KQ but he can easily have an A lower than AJ or a small pair.

Your thoughts?

[Radford]

If you know he is a tight player, then you really shouldn't be pushing 10bb's into him. He's almost never folding. And when he does call, you're probably crushed.

[chrisjp]

red, here was an interesting hand from the Seniors. :Hero was one of the chip leaders going into Day 2, but has fallen on hard times. He is not reticent about letting everyone know that. Hero is OTB with 97s. We are playing 1000/2000a300 and there are about 200 players remaining. We are well into the money. Both the blinds are clueless tight players. Hero has 15,200 or just over 7.5BBs. The blinds are going up to 1200/2400a300 in 20 minutes. Ten handed and it folds to CO who pushes 17,100 chips. You haven't seen CO play any hands but you've only been here for two orbits. He looks just like chrisjp, but you have absolutely no idea who that is or how he plays other than he's done nothing for two orbits. In the two orbits that you have played you have doubled up the SB twice by calling his 3-bet pushes. Both times you were greatly outgunned when he showed QQ and beat you.

Hero pushed his 97s. He is a good thinking player. Or is he just a poor thinking player? Right decision?

I was going to post this hand separately but it kinda fits here. I'll leave it here and then post it separately in a bit.

Chris

[redman7027]

If I have a bigger stack size can I push? Let’s say 15 blinds or is this just the fact that I said he was tight a better description is probably not a noticeable blind thief. His range was probably.
44+, A7o+, KJo, +some other Broadway type hands and suited combinations.

What range can I push here? I was pushing back around 55+ A7s+ A9o+ KJs+. Should I tighten this up? How much? What range do you push back with?

In this game, as with most as the field is reduced and players improve, there were fewer and fewer opportunities to be 1st in. I am looking to make a move and willing to accept slightly negative EV situation. Maybe I should not have been willing to take this extra risk I guess that is another question? My though was I have 10 blinds and am already dealing with a negative EV proposition regardless of how I play so this is what I have to work with. I am thinking I have to make a move soon or be blinded down to the point I have no fold equity even if I am 1st in and push.

[Radford]

I think i'm pushing a bigger stack. Even against a tight player. It's the fact that you pushed only 10 bb's that i'm so against it.