ITH Poker Forum

[Suited_Jock]

I think i've analysed this right myself but I was wanting some of ITH's famous expert advice i've had in the past..

Background is Genting Poker tour satellite.. 5 seats 6 left.. £55 buyin top 5 get £430 seat.. 6th gets peanuts.

Villain in this hand is playing the short stack well (the big stacks are clueless) and every time has been folded to 4 times in total has shoved on us.. we've never had more than 9 high so have folded every single time.

NL Holdem $1,600(BB) Replayer Game#3922621662

SeanFoley21 ($9,613)
Stammertime91 ($13,025)
putitinbad ($82,558)
bigpotatoe ($28,684)
EvilDrPorkChop ($19,629)
bucklemyshoe ($26,489)

SeanFoley21 antes $160
Stammertime91 antes $160
putitinbad antes $160
bigpotatoe antes $160
EvilDrPorkChop antes $160
bucklemyshoe antes $160
SeanFoley21 posts (SB) $800
Stammertime91 posts (BB) $1,600


Dealt to Stammertime91

fold, fold, fold, fold,
SeanFoley21 raises to $9,453 (AI)
Hero???

[Primitive]

Without running it through an ICM calculator I'm guestimating you need about 60% equity to call. K9 in nowhere near that even against a random hand.

Snap fold..

[nsidestrate]

This is a situation where I call and Chris later tells me I'm an idiot.

[chrisjp]

Holdem resources....


SB 87.3%, 22+ Jx+ T2s+ T3o+ 92s+ 95o+ 82s+ 84o+ 72s+ 74o+ 62s+ 64o+ 52s+ 53o+ 42s+ 32s
BB 34.2%, 44+ Ax+ K4s+ K6o+ Q7s+ Q9o+ J9s+ JTo

Of course others should have been pushing earlier. Now this is perfect play. Since players are playing tighter than normal this could be different. Wouldn't surprise me if SB range is 100%. In that case you are 58% or so against him.

What kind of clueless? Too tight clueless or too loose. It matters a lot.

If the other opponents are playing reasonably or are playing too tight then it's a reasonable call. He has first in equity against you if they keep folding and you are going to get stuck. He's already seen you fold several times so time to go for it I think.

Chris

lol just saw nside's post. Guess I'll have to wait for a while to call him an idiot. This one is interesting because normally you don't want to be the caller. But sometimes you have to.

[Suited_Jock]

Big stacks were playing really weak tight.. example I shoved AA and 8k into the BB who was sitting with 90k.. and he folded 10:1 rule I was sure I'd get a call.

So feeling I'd get no help from the big stacks and considering they gave villain at least 5 walks to his SB short handed I had to take things into my own hands.. I remember from playing alot of heads up that K9o sits in the top 10% and having pokerstoved it 58% against a random range is something im happy to take in this scenario.

He had A3o which was at the complete top of his range and held.. c'est la vie.

If thats what it feels like bubbling a $650 seat.. I'd really hate to bubble a WSOP or other 10k equivalent.

[the_hawk]

This is a situation where I fold, say "surely it has to be a turbo snap-fold and I won't hear any arguments to the contrary and Chris later says: "Well..."

FYP

[chrisjp]

I think this is fairly close though and would like to know more. When SB is in early and middle position is he folding? That sounds like a yes. When are the other players raising, if ever? It 's a feel kind of thing here, because calling is definitely not something I love to do. When SB is on the button does he fold? I mean how often are you getting to steal from the guy to your left?

Also, I would probably have completed or only min raised with the AA. Yes I know that it is super obvious to any kind of player, but the guy on your left sounds like he is not any kind of player. I've done it before and it's paid off. I would always push against a good player.

Chris

[Suited_Jock]

I've seen sb shove from utg and get thru. He folds his button tho if folded to. The big stack is really unpredictable. It wdd a long long bubble. I shoved my button when folded to twice and got through. The only active player who didnt have a clue was two to my left meaning he was on the Button when myself and villain in the hand were utg and utg+1. The dynamics just felt all wrong and I was pretty scared of shoving into a guy who should be calling with any two lightly. Rest of the table were just folding into a seat.

[jrspm]

As I said on Twitter when you posted this hand there, I'd prefer to fold and shove one of the next couple of hands, where you clearly have some FE after seeing a bit more detail here.

It's interesting to see the math though, and it's certainly closer than I thought.

[chrisjp]

As I said on Twitter when you posted this hand there, I'd prefer to fold and shove one of the next couple of hands, where you clearly have some FE after seeing a bit more detail here.

It's interesting to see the math though, and it's certainly closer than I thought.

That is my hope too jrs, however I think in this situation it's going to get tough. The opponent to your right is going to be chipping away at your lead, and if you fold hands like this he's going to get ahead of you soon. You want to be the first raiser, but it will be infrequent with him having position on your. This is a perverse situation where him being to your right does give him position.

When you push first in, it is for your life and it will often be when there are two or more still to act behind you. You have a lot of folding equity when that comes up, but if you lose you are dead. Now if you lose here you still aren't dead...sure you are crippled big time but if you double twice you are back in it. That 15-20% comeback shot is quite significant.

And if you win here it's over.

Doesn't seem intuitive, but play a lot of double or nothing tournaments when you are on the bubble, and you will see how nasty it can get. Well actually don't, since they became ripe with colluders, just take my word for it.

Chris

[philhux]

I've had my fair share of satellite pain and I hate this spot. I'm really not sure! If you call and lose this hand you aren't out of it, but ugh, I'm not sure...

[chrisjp]

This one is close for sure. It depends on your reads of opponent's ability. Given what SJ has said I think it's a call, but a fold is a close second. It's close, that's the important point.

Chris