ITH Poker Forum

[Radford]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 11 Tournament, 500/1000 Blinds 100 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t12690)
Button (t11009)
Radford999 (SB) (t27215)
BB (t28344)
UTG (t25325)
UTG+1 (t15580)
MP1 (t27446)
MP2 (t6390)
MP3 (t35062)

Radford999's M: 11.34

Preflop: Radford999 is SB with ,
7 folds, Radford999 bets t2475, BB calls t1475

Flop: (t5850) , , (2 players)
Radford999 bets t2475, BB calls t2475

Turn: (t10800) (2 players)
Radford999 bets t4875, BB calls t4875

River: (t20550) (2 players)
Radford999???

Villian is pretty solid and seems like a decent player. Other than that no other reads. I have been playing quite aggressively.

What do you do on the river? Do you check? Do you bet? Do you shove? Looking back maybe i should have bet more on the turn?

[Primitive]

Hmmm,

If villain is solid then he probably holds a T (KT, QT) and calls down for potcontrol more often than he holds a flushdraw. Since he won't valuebet a T on the river but probably call again I think: bet-fold > check-call > Check-fold. Tough spot though.

[leofric]

If I calculated right we have less than a pot bet left so maybe we can only bet fold around 7k here? I'd hate folding though!

This kind of spot would usually be where I'd either double up or bust out when I played MTTs

[ImBetterDude]

Dunno about a naked 10 in this spot. I can see a smooth call on the flop, but on the turn...with those draws of all kinds...I think a decent player in this spot will be raising damn near 100% of the time.

River is just misery for you. Hate being in that spot. Here's how I see it playing out, and please disect the shit out of this as it will help me learn.

Line 1: CHECK. I see a check inviting problems. After showing straight strength at every other juncture, it would take a pretty ballsy/idiotic (depending on player) player to fire a fake-flush river bet bluff that you could call (8k max?), and this happens infrequently to say the least. Plus, I think a fake-flush bluff is gonna be pot-sized most the time in this spot as it's probably better disguised this way (most likely bet for someone holding a flush) and will deter a call more frequently for this reason coupled with the fact that the call would commit all your chips. Any semi-strong hand will check behind you and lose without committing more chips. Stronger hands than your own bet big enough for you to fold, which is probably the best thing which comes from checking.

Line 2: BIG BET. By betting big, you essentially will chase away any hand that you beat (including hands that may call 5k more) while having the added benefit of getting all better hands to call you down. Essentially, I see this bet creating a situation where opponents can't make a mistake. I mean, a set with nut or 2nd nut kicker calls this bet begrudgingly some portion of the time...but still. This player is described as competent at least, so he has the capability of letting the hand go for the big river bet. I suppose we have to decide what % of the time the set is in his range, and what % of that time he'll call the big bet.

Line 3: VALUE BET or BLOCKING BET. The moderate bet (maybe 7k is better than 5k due to it looking stronger and will be bluffed at less frequently?) will ideally scare off all bluffers, so missed hands or bad hands are folding here. Strong 2nd best hands will call this in a heartbeat and donate more $$$. Stronger hands, and damn near only stronger hands IMO, will shove over top, and you can comfortably fold while keeping around 13k to play with; adequate amount of chips to make a comeback far from impossible.

The only flaw I see in this logic is that perhaps shoving the river in Line 2 gets sets to stack off to you, but I think this added equity over Line 3 is negated by the times you lose all your chips in Line 2 to better hands that you would have only lost 1/3 of your chips to if you instead would have taken Line #3.

[Radford]

I can't remember how much i bet exactly but i think it was something like 9k. He folded.

[chrisjp]

I think bet sizing is wrong on flop and turn with 27BBs. That's why it ended up so awkward. I would bet 6-7K on the flop and then push the turn. I think you can get paid off on the turn if he has a ten, esp since it is B v B.

As played god only knows. Kinda looks like you have a draw with the bet sizing of your flop and turn--or really anything given all the head games going on in SB v. BB. Hate getting raised on the river though. Ugh.

Chris

[Damien]

I think bet sizing is wrong on flop and turn with 27BBs. That's why it ended up so awkward. I would bet 6-7K on the flop and then push the turn. I think you can get paid off on the turn if he has a ten, esp since it is B v B.

+1. Well, my flop bet might not be quite that big, but I'm getting all in on the turn.

[leofric]

Any thoughts what villain is calling 2 streets then folding to on the river?

Admittedly its a scary board but if he's gone this far should he really be allowing us to bluff him off a ten? Or is it the fact that we can't really bet this river with nothing - put another way would we be happy playing this way as a bluff (or in Villains shoes could we see anyone bluffing a third street on this texture)

[chrisjp]

rad said: Villian is pretty solid and seems like a decent player. Given this I think a smaller bet on the river, like 4-5K, is in order. If he raises you then you fold. I think this kind of player at these stakes almost never raise-bluffs the river. He'll think you are trying to make him call with the good pot odds you are giving him. But with anything, certainly a then, he will call--just in case. He might call you with a hand that would bet more if you check. I also don't think he will try to bluff you on the river, so a check/call isn't that good. He might bet the worst hand if you check though--so there's some merit in that.

I kind of like your bet size on the river if you are bluffing.

Chris