ITH Poker Forum

[jfletcher]

I have 18 BBs. Only 3rd orbit at new table. MP who had been playing pretty standard for 25 hands or so raises 3x. Folded to me in SB with 99.

I pushed.

In retrospect, I think that was wrong, and not just because villain happened to have AA. By pushing there, I'm essentially bluffing, because he's not calling with any hand I really want to see. Even if he calls with overcards, I'm just flipping when I still have too many chips to be inviting a flip for my life. (With 12 or 13 BBs, sure.)

99 just seemed like too good of a hand to fold with a (relatively) short stack, and I couldn't call (OOP, not enough to set mine) and I couldn't make a normal raise.

I think one of my leaks is 3-betting a little too light, thinking that people are just stealing more often than they are with their raises.

Come to think of it, I bet 75 percent of my bustout hands are situations just like this.

[hazey]

How many left at the time? Providing we're nowhere near the bubble and MP is not a total nit, I think 3-bet shoving 99 is fine.

Also helps if you have a good image and can cause damage to villain's stack size.

With 18 BBs you have a reasonable stack with which to shove but you don't want to wait to get much lower as you lose re-steal fold equity.

You are obviously happy to take the pot down pre, but a flip at this stage isn't a total disaster and you may even get called by 88 or 77. You're going to need to accumulate a lot more chips (I think average at the bubble would have been around 100k) and this is a good spot for it.

Unlucky to run into AA.

Cheers
hazey

[coolfish7]

Agree with hazey 100%. As you near the bubble you can make arguments for folding, but besides that I think this is a fairly common spot. You'd have to know the guy was a "total nit", and you can't know that after 25 hands.

And taking a flip for 18 BB is just fine too. You'll probably need to double a few more times to make it anyway, and this is a reasonable spot. And you have plenty of fold equity against some of the hands you'd like to fold.....AJ, AT, KQ...maybe even TT. And you might even get called by 77 or 88 (I'd strongly consider calling with 88 in the villian's shoes).

When you're making aggressive plays, I think it's pretty natural that you will bust in the process of making them. A better stat than saying

75 percent of my bustout hands are situations just like this

is , "what percent of the time do my 3b shoves/resteals work?" It's a big difference, and I imagine that they work far more often than not - it's just easier to remember the times you pulled the trigger and found AA than it is the times he called with 88 or mucked his random trash. That will help you to determine if you do, in fact, have a leak.

And besides, it's the internet. People are always stealing anyway, right?

[redman7027]

I also dont think your play is bad. Folding is the worst in my opinion.

[Taardvark]

I think where you are relative to the bubble is the most important factor here. If you are close to the bubble its probably a fold and if you are still a ways out, probably a shove.

[jfletcher]

I think where you are relative to the bubble is the most important factor here. If you are close to the bubble its probably a fold and if you are still a ways out, probably a shove.

There were still 1800 left. Only 253 seats.

[philhux]

Fletch - I think you did nothing wrong here.

As an aside - to take this sat as an example - when do we stop treating it like a normal tourney and more like a sat. Is this gradual or is there a cut off. Do we do this anyway from the start? What adjustments are we making for the fact it isn't winner takes all?

[jfletcher]

I guess I should be happy that you all think my decision was OK, but it still feels to me like 18 BBs is too much to be going into a spot where I'll be a coin flip at best, and crushed a large percentage.

Yeah, I'm getting short and need to double, but don't I have time to find a better spot? I've still got some FE for a first-in shove for 2 more orbits.

[timchuk]

For what its worth i would have shoved the 99 in the spot. Another Tournamnent play i see quite often with this stack size is the Limp-GO. Basically you call with the intention to shove any flop. If the raiser totally wiffs the flop you might be able to take the pot down. Like if he had 10,10 and the flop goes K,Q,3 you might get a fold out of him.

[poker_Elmo]

You add 25% to your stack when you get folds. That is huge. You could probably profitably push 75s - you might get a fold often enough to make that worthwhile.

You will be called often by AQ and AK here, where you are favored, but adding 25% to your stack here is huge.

You will bust almost every tourney you play - so it doesn't shock me that bustout hands would occur with situations like this.

Bummer you ran into aces.