ITH Poker Forum

[chrisjp]

120/240 no antes

BTN: t10696 44.57 BBs
SB: t8070 33.62 BBs
BB: t13150 54.79 BBs
UTG: t7295 30.40 BBs
UTG+1: t8770 36.54 BBs
UTG+2: t4447 18.53 BBs
MP1: t7193 29.97 BBs
MP2: t6529 27.20 BBs
Hero (CO): t6280 26.17 BBs

Pre Flop: (t360) Hero is CO with Q : Q :
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t480, 2 folds, MP2 calls t480, Hero raises to t1780, 1 fold, SB calls t1660, 3 folds

Flop: (t4760) 5 : 6 : A : (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t4760) 8 : (2 players)
SB bets t6290 all in, Hero ???

This is a $12 Rush well before bubble. Lots of poor players in this, but villain is a complete unknown.

Like my flop check? Now what?

Chris

[nsidestrate]

It really smells like a bluff to me. I'm thinking he picked up an oesd with a 7 or the flush draw. I just can't imagine anyone playing the Ace like this because your line looks so weak. It could also be a monster, but it sure looks like a bet that doesn't want a call to me. I want to call, but I'm pretty sure I would have folded in real time.

[chrisjp]

Villain makes a cold call after an ep raise, a flat, and then a squeeze. I mean he can't have AA or KK. Can he? How in the world can he flat there. So he has to be clueless. Even a clueless person won't flat AK there imo. He might push it, but not just call. I said he can't have AA but maybe.....but the push on the turn would be idiotic.

The turn. If he had AK there's no way he's pushing the turn. That push would be nuts. No way a set. That push would also be nuts. But sometimes, not often, they just push really strong hands in Rush.

A draw? Whatever it is it sure looks like he wants me to fold. Can he have AQs or AJs and be a total nut? I'm into the time bank...and it's running out fast.

Chris

[the_hawk]

FOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLD.

They always have it (enough of a hand).

Even if they don't, assuming they do won't be far wrong.

[poker_Elmo]

I have called recently a few times in spots like this, they always seemed to have AJ or something like that. Perhaps I have just been unlucky to run into the aces people have which are part of thei wider range, but I now assume they have it a bit more often on these over pot bets.

One note. Many zoo regs recommend a 3 bet of something like double the raise size plus a small blind. That would have made life easier here. If you bet more , say 2.4K makes this an easier call. I still likes 1.1K 3 bet with this stack size to make post flop play easier.

Edit - just checked again and notice you left yourself a pot size bet - that's not bad. Still think 1.1k or 2.4 K makes the hand easier to play later.

[chrisjp]

I'm pretty sure that if he had made a 1/2 pot size bet I would have folded. But the overpush just seemed like he was trying to move me off whatever holding I had. But he could have been trying to do that with AJ or AT. Yike.

I called. I mean I checked back the flop so he's more likely to be pulling a fast one.

He showed and I doubled++. Upon reconsideration think I made a Sklansky Bucks losing play. Too often I'm beat by some scared Ax which is pushing to get me to fold a better hand, or he has a monster and in Rush they really aren't thinking much but they are hoping for a call.

Thanks for the replies. And Elmo's bet sizing comment...I'll remember that too.

Chris

[Radford]

Meh. I hate it when this happens! Although he had JJ on this occasion. I honestly feel that he will have Ax a majority of the time here. There have been so many occasions where i have been in this EXACT spot and called and villian has had A6-AJ.

[nsidestrate]

Meh. I hate it when this happens! Although he had JJ on this occasion. I honestly feel that he will have Ax a majority of the time here. There have been so many occasions where i have been in this EXACT spot and called and villian has had A6-AJ.

OK, Is shoving AJ- as absolutely terrible as it seems to me or is it +EV because we'll call with KK-TT?

[kinnipak]

Ax will shove turn when board becomes 2 suited. "Make them pay for their draw (strt/flush)" is what I see....If turn is a whiff?..they probably still won't fold top pair to anything less than an allin.

I'd live to fight another round.

Edit: Just saw this was Rush. Not my cup'o'joe at all.

[the_hawk]

OK, Is shoving AJ- as absolutely terrible as it seems to me or is it +EV because we'll call with KK-TT?

Bigger aces forming a sufficiently large part of our range (and the uncertainty that we'll actually call with those pairs in our range) make it terrible.

[nsidestrate]

OK, Is shoving AJ- as absolutely terrible as it seems to me or is it +EV because we'll call with KK-TT?

Bigger aces forming a sufficiently large part of our range (and the uncertainty that we'll actually call with those pairs in our range) make it terrible.

Which I why I discounted that holding because of the action. Because showing weak aces is lol-bad here and I usually assume they aren't that dumb.

[the_hawk]

Which I why I discounted that holding because of the action. Because showing weak aces is lol-bad here and I usually assume they aren't that dumb.

My metric for this sort of game (in theory, I wish I'd followed it in practice, I'd have saved a hell of a lot of buyins if I did) is, more or less, "they always have it". (A corollary being "yes they are that dumb"). I'm positive that allowing oneself to be bluffed off hands in spots like this, in games like this, is much more +EV than the "this time they don't have it" mentality.

It could be a bit of selective memory and/or a tilt control issue to some degree as well - but calling and getting shown A7o is (was) much much worse for me than folding and being shown JJ (especially in Rush, you probably won't even see the show).

[nsidestrate]

Well, and I do have a tendency to get bounced from tourneys by hands that they shouldn't have had if they had any sense. I guess the trick is to see who has sense and who doesn't. Easier said than done, especially at Rush.

[chrisjp]

The more I think about it the more I think this was a pretty poor call. Maybe I should have c/b the flop. One thing, If I had AK here I very likely would have checked back this dry flop to try to induce a bluff. But here, well he could be betting big with a hand that can beat me.

More I'm thinking. Bet the flop and then ck it down. If he calls the flop and then pushes the river I should fold.

Here this villain had a nice stack. When these guys usually bluff it is when they overbet the pot, but they usually only have 25BBs or less preflop, usually just 20BBs or less. That's when they pull fast ones all the time. But not here. Not postflop.

My metric for this sort of game (in theory, I wish I'd followed it in practice, I'd have saved a hell of a lot of buyins if I did) is, more or less, "they always have it". (A corollary being "yes they are that dumb"). I'm positive that allowing oneself to be bluffed off hands in spots like this, in games like this, is much more +EV than the "this time they don't have it" mentality.

+1 In a nutshell.

Chris

[Damien]

Pretty sure I would have just gotten all of my chips in the middle on the flop. I'm c-betting here close to 100% of the time, and any reasonable size bet commits me anyway...