ITH Poker Forum

[Damien]

Bet the flop and then ck it down. If he calls the flop and then pushes the river I should fold.

You'd be willing to fold on the River after committing roughly 2/3rds of your stack?

[chrisjp]

Pretty sure I would have just gotten all of my chips in the middle on the flop. I'm c-betting here close to 100% of the time, and any reasonable size bet commits me anyway...

My problem with that is that I likely fold out everything that I beat, and still get called by almost everything that is ahead of me. If the villain is poor enough to cold call pre with AJ say, then he likely calls on the flop. And will he call me with JJ? I don't think so.

Chris

[leofric]

Pretty sure I would have just gotten all of my chips in the middle on the flop. I'm c-betting here close to 100% of the time, and any reasonable size bet commits me anyway...

My problem with that is that I likely fold out everything that I beat, and still get called by almost everything that is ahead of me. If the villain is poor enough to cold call pre with AJ say, then he likely calls on the flop. And will he call me with JJ? I don't think so.

Chris

+1

Its interesting that a lot of us quite often call here only to see an A - it makes no sense to make this play with a weak A but for some reason lots of players do.

[Radford]

Bet the flop and then ck it down.

You can't bet without pushing here surely. On the flop you have 4500 left and there is 4760 in the pot Betting the flop, then folding to a river push would be horrendous.

[nsidestrate]

Bet the flop and then ck it down.

You can't bet without pushing here surely. On the flop you have 4500 left and there is 4760 in the pot Betting the flop, then folding to a river push would be horrendous.

I don't like betting the flop, unless you have a way shittier hand. Nothing calls that doesn't crush you and let him play perfectly.

[Damien]

I've been racking my brain trying to legitimize a push on the flop and I've come to the conclusion that Chris and Nside are right... pushing only folds out hands that we're ahead of and gets calls from hands that beat us. I'll have to try to keep this in mind next time I get into a situation like this. I would've folded the turn for sure, but I (now) agree with the check on the flop. Your only real options on the flop are check or push imo.

[chrisjp]

Wow I really made a mess of this one. At the time, and even afterwards, I felt villain was making an overbet of the pot. Effectively he wasn't even doing that. Even more reason to fold.

Best of all worlds that day. Mistake. Win the pot anyway. Learn from it! Plus I even went on to finish 4th in this tournament. Such a deal.

Chris

[Radford]

There would be some players that i might just snap-call his shove on the turn. If i have been playing with them for awhile, and he seemed loose and aggressive, i would call for sure. But against a complete unknown, i think you gotta fold.

[timchuk]

This rush dynamic is really tough to pin. A player could be playing very tight and we don't have any reads to prove this. I am really suprised he showed up with JJ here. I tend to play more fit/fold in rush when i don't have any information to go off.

[scottishben]

One of the key elements of this hand here is to me something that other people have not raised. Lots of people guess the hand that they think their opponent has and then play as though they had that hand but what you should really be trying to do, particularly in a rush game (same if your new to table etc) is put them on a range with percentage chances for each possibility to see whether it is worth calling. Secondly there is a lot in the pot already.

What this means is that it is right to call given the extra in the pot even if you are wrong a substantial amount of the time. To be honest I have not bothered to total up what is in the pot, what stacks each opponent had so I could not accurately say call or fold. What I could say is

The over bet looks strange - I have seen people make this play with all sorts of hands. I think the most probable is that they have something that is vulnerable to be beaten by draws (ie the straight that is forming) and is not an ace, something like 1010,jj,qq or KK. They could easily have Ax though and they could also have a straight or a straight draw. I suspect the pot is big enough for you to call when you are winning between 1 in 3 and 40% of the time. Although calling in this sort of situation is not pleasant and too often people use range theory to call when they should not I think you probably need to call there, even although you are probably facing a hand that beats you at least 50% of the time.

I agree that a smaller bet is more scary in that situation.

[blah730235]

Does anyone here ever cold call preflop in SB's spot with any hand? My initial thought is that no decent player is going to cold-call that much of their stack oop preflop, but I play my hands super standard in these spots and tend to assume other TAG players would do the same.

Given I don't have much respect for SB after his preflop play, I suspect he has a wider shoving range in general and call if off on the turn.