ITH Poker Forum

[chrisjp]

Nightly Hundred Grand

Hand 1

Blinds 125/250a25 so there is 600 chips in the pot

You are in the SB with 7000 chips
BB, unknown to you as you just got moved, has 3701 before blinds/antes.

Folds to you in the SB with

Your move....



I'm adding another one here because I think they are similar:
Hand 2
Blinds 400/800a75

You are in the SB with 37,300 and
BB has 10,800

It folds to you....your move

Chris

[leofric]

I've been playing too much cash - my instinct is to fold here too!!

But rationally shouldnt a raise to about 675/700 be enough to test his resolve in the pot without commiting too many chips? He cant really call and plenty would only shove with decent cards here, so there should be plenty of FE.

700 to win 600 - you only need a fold a shade over 50% and its +EV.

[leofric]

Had a bit more thought about this (or now these!)

Problem comes with stack sizes and getting pot committed, the last thing you really want is to be calling an AI with garbage for 1/3 of your stack.

So now my sad default position comes back to folding - if we're on the bubble or there is a steep jump in the cash then I might consider shoving because it puts maximum pressure on. K3o and J4s are still pretty poor hands to be doing this with though.

Another thing that would make a difference is that if this were live you could probably put more pressure on - tournament life seems to make players call less here in a live setting than online where you can just reload into another tourney - ok so in this case probably not one as large.

I tend to take the view that I'm comfortable at the moment so I can afford to let this go rather than risk ruining my tournament over 600 chips, besides I've got the button coming up next hand!

[chrisjp]

These are two hands from commentary by AKJHoosier on pokerxfactor. In both he said that these are easy pushes. Really? I mean you can argue a push for sure, but I think it depends upon the BB. These are close decisions on Sheet's tables. Now if the BB is much tighter than normal in his calls, well then pushing becomes more +EV. But then min raising may be even better. I'm not advocating a min raise here like I might LIVE. This is a push or fold and I have no problem with a push. But I think a fold is not terrible.

Chris

[Radford]

Hand 2 is a snap-shove. I wouldn't even think twice about folding. I'd do this with the unsuited J4 too.

Hand 1 is borderline for me. I think i may just shove though.

[leofric]

So if both of these are easy shoves then presumably the bulk of this comes from FE - so are we saying ATC is still a shove?

[Radford]

Yes. Well, i think so anyway. When i was first starting out playing poker, i would insta-fold these. Or just limp. The fact is, now i wouldn't even give it a second thought about folding either of these. You just gotta have the bottle to stick it in and think this is a +EV move in the lng run. Sure, you may get called and bust out and think to yourself ''Why the hell did i shove with K3/J4 then?''. But think about it, it's +EV in the long run. How often are either of the BB calling in both of these hands? Unlikely. Only with a decentish (decentish?? lol) hand. And when they do call, you may have live cards. In most cases you probably will.

[blah730235]

Villian is an unknown so pushing with an equilibrium strategy can never be to far from wrong since you have no specific tendencies to exploit. With all that dead money out there I'm pretty sure you can push a lot lighter and be happy about it.

So if both of these are easy shoves then presumably the bulk of this comes from FE

Well not necessarily I mean you need what >47% equity against villain's range to make K3o valuable showdown wise. You'll get this if villain calls 80%+ of the time.

On the flip side if villain calls to tightly at like 15% you'll make money from fold equity. What i'm trying to say is if you graphed your EV on one axis and calling % on another axis you'd have a parabola. Where on either side you could be making money from fold equity or showdown equity depending on villain's tendencies.

[Radford]

ooo

[chrisjp]

...you could be making money from fold equity or showdown equity depending on villain's tendencies.

+1 That's why I think that when AKJHoosier says this is a no brainer push well he's not accurate. It depends upon your read of the opponent. It can't be too bad play to fold K3o and might be correct depending upon the circumstances.

[Radford]

...you could be making money from fold equity or showdown equity depending on villain's tendencies.

+1 That's why I think that when AKJHoosier says this is a no brainer push well he's not accurate. It depends upon your read of the opponent. It can't be too bad play to fold K3o and might be correct depending upon the circumstances.

What circumstances?

[chrisjp]

What circumstances?

Lots of weak tight timid live players, esp lots of older guys. Just min raise them and fold when they push. You'll TID prolly 80% of the time, and still be in the tournament the other 20%. Just one example...

[blah730235]

What circumstances?

Lots of weak tight timid live players, esp lots of older guys. Just min raise them and fold when they push. You'll TID prolly 80% of the time, and still be in the tournament the other 20%. Just one example...

The problem here is that in the hand stated in the OP villain is a complete unknown. We haven't played one hand with him and we're online so we can't gather a guestimation on his play style from his mannerism, age or dress like we can live. We have to assume that a wide array of calling ranges are possible and also that using an exploitive playing style is an extremely weak strategy without a read.

It's very possible that using an equilibrium GTO push range here gives you guaranteed EV regardless of villain's calling range.

[leofric]

I agree K3 has equity if he calls that light I'm just assuming he doesnt! I assume on the parabola there is a sweet spot for his calling range where we have the least EV - it still isnt exploitable though since we have FE and he doesnt so there shouldnt be a range where he is ahead.

Surely one of the main factors here though is also relative stack sizes? I'm more comfortable in the second example since we have him covered 3:1

Does our decision change if he has us covered - maybe by more than 3:1?

[philhux]

It really is villian dependent and how much they know you too. Lots of regs are pushing top 60-70% sb v bb 14bbs effective, but if you have a reg in the small blind pushing against you then you can adjust your calling range accordingly. For example on the first one, if you both regulars in the blinds who knew each other, you shoved with K3o, you may well get a snap call from K4!

First one I'm shoving for sure.

If I had history with the bb on the second one, ie I knew he was a good player and he knew I was a regular, then I might fold but probably not.

I think for both hands in these spot.

shove > fold > limp > standard raise.

Standard raise is really the worst option unless the bb is an absolute rock, you are just setting yourself up to be shoved on.

Chris - if we are min raising here if this were a live spot, don't people just flat far too much and then this can be not too easy to play post flop oop with shallow stacks and a trashy hand?