ITH Poker Forum

[coolfish7]

Going from memory on this one - was playing on my old machine without saved hand histories or my poker tracker.

This was a satellite on Full Tilt. $24+2, had 33 players. Seat was to the $300+22 direct qualifier to the WSOP ME. 1500 chips to start, so 49500 total in play.

3 players left, 2 get seats, 3rd is $74. 5 seats had been paid, with minimal cash prizes for those spots.

Blinds are 400/800/A100, 5 minute levels. We started 3 way play with the other two players each @ ~20k, me at 7k. With shoving to stay alive, and some serious errors by one of the other players (somehow managed to nearly stack off without TP with me there as the shorty), I now have ~8500, the player to my right has ~7k, other guy has the rest @ ~34k.

Here's the question: Shorty to my right had just been given a walk in the BB. Very next hand he shoves again from the BTN. I have A6o in the SB, and have him covered by 2BB. Given the prize payout and stack distribution, is this a call (shove) or fold?


My belief (perhaps mistaken) is that generally in this spot from an equity standpoint, you should need a very strong hand to get involved, right? And A6 shouldn't qualify as strong in a satellite situation such as this (in a regular tourney against this villian with these stack sizes I think its an autocall). However, I felt that:

1) the shorty could be shipping very light and A6 could be ahead of his range.
2) if I call (shove), the big stack should also call with a wide range since he is getting good odds, isn't risking his tournament, and has a chance to end it here. This scenario obviously maximizes the chance that the shorty is eliminated. As long as the shorty doesn't win the pot, then since I entered the hand with more chips, I'll get the seat.
3) I can't keep allowing him to shove since with one more successful steal, he and I will have the same (desperately) short stack, and so I lose the small amount of chip leverage I had.


So....thoughts? I'll post what happened later.

[nsidestrate]

Chris is of course the best of us at these situations. In general, you want to fold in sat situations like this because the big stack should call most of the time anyhow. However, the specific dynamics of this situation have me leaning towards a call. Villian should be nearly ATC here.

[taz115]

Without crunching any numbers I lean toward a fold actually, but I suspect it is close. You are quite likely ahead but it has to be very marginally so as Axs doesn't really dominate any type of pushing range.

I see what nside is saying but I think I would fold and hope the big stack tries to snap him off. If he doesn't, or if the other shorty doubles then you have to start pushing first-in with a pretty wide range.

I agree that ChrisJP and and Poker_elmo are our satelite bubble experts so I would also defer to their wisdom. Interesting spot though...

I think it is also tough to analyze because we don't know what the big stacks calling range is going to look like. Maybe if you think the big-stack is going to try and crush the two of you off the bubble by calling really wide then it's a fold and it's a call if you think the big-stack is more likely to let you two small stacks fight it it out. I've seen both strategies implemented by big stacks on the bubble. I agree with nside that the other guys pushing range has to be pretty wide here.

[coolfish7]

You are quite likely ahead but it has to be very marginally so as Axs doesn't really dominate any type of pushing range.

My thoughts too. So against a player with roughly the same stack in a satellite on the bubble, then don't I need a very non-marginal spot to get myself in?

On the other hand, again, the presence of the big stack I think changes the dynamics completely, as my call might induce him as well, which of course is better for me.

To that point:

I think it is also tough to analyze because we don't know what the big stacks calling range is going to look like. Maybe if you think the big-stack is going to try and crush the two of you off the bubble by calling really wide then it's a fold and it's a call if you think the big-stack is more likely to let you two small stacks fight it it out. I've seen both strategies implemented by big stacks on the bubble

This guy didn't really seem too interested in trying to smash us out. Definitely got a lot of folds/walks from him. He also played AA extremely slow (lost some value) earlier, although it's hard to say if the thought he was being tricky or wanted to play small ball as we neared the seat-bubble.

[chrisjp]

If you look at HoldemResources the ICM solution is

BU push 24.3%, 22+ A2s+ A8o+ K9s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s
SB call 10.9%, 55+ A8s+ A9o+
BB overcall if SB calls 5.9%, 88+ AJs+ AQo+
BB call if SB folds 11.6%, 44+ A8s+ A9o+ KQs

A2-A6 are way overplayed according to Apestyles. I believe it.

Nside thinks the button's range is much wider than this. That would mean your call would be wider. But I'm not so sure he is wider. Depends on the reads I guess.

Calling with A6o is iffy I think. Normally I wouldn't here unless I was convinced he was real loose.

Chris

[coolfish7]

Intersting stuff, Chris.

In the end, I folded. BB SNAPPED with QTs, and the BTN had JJ. Naturally the board ran out AAxxx and I would have eliminated the guy to win the seat. But the shorty doubled, and my desperation shove ran into Ax and I lost.

Just glad to hear that the spot was marginal and that I didn't have a DOH! moment