ITH Poker Forum

[chrisjp]

We have 18 players remaining and have redrawn for the final two tables. Hero is in Seat 1. Hero steals couple of hands during the first orbit, and folds to a 3-bet. Hero has 260K, average is twice that. Blinds 10K/20K ante3K. Seat 7 has the button so you are UTG+2. Remember this is the seniors. Lots of poor players, weak tightish or just plain tight. Schneider, big time pro voted Player of the WSOP in 2007 is in the SB with 200K. BB is a female who has 350K.

You have .

Right, you have 13BBs

Two folds to you. Your move.....

Chris

[taz115]

Looks like a shove to me. Against an aggressive table I might raise small, hoping that someone 3-bets me all-in. But with 13BBs and a tightish table I think a shove is ok here.

[philhux]

so the blind are 10k/20k?

I think it's a jam rather than a raise fold for the reason that the guy most likely to shove on us light if we min open, hasn't really got a big enough stack to do that.

How much are people flatting opens? I'm not sure if I want to be flatted and jam it in on the flop. Nightmare is if you are flatted by the BB and donked into on an overcard flop.

I think schneider is more likely to get in a worse hand than ours if we just shove rather than a min open - but I could be wrong?

[chrisjp]

Sorry Phil, the blinds are 10K/20K yes with 3K ante. I edited the OP

[chrisjp]

How much are people flatting opens?

Hardly any flops seen. This is a new table but with 3 tables remaining there was very little flatting going on. Schneider flatted a SB raise in the BB once. The only other ones that saw a board were push/calls or raise/3-bet push/call.

Chris

[philhux]

maybe schneider does jam over us with a pair if we min open here? My live bet sizing obviously isn't that great - so I'm not sure if he's think he had fold equity?

[taz115]

maybe schneider does jam over us with a pair if we min open here? My live bet sizing obviously isn't that great - so I'm not sure if he's think he had fold equity?

He might if you have a nitty Senior image. A young internet looking kid probably isn't going to trick him into shoving a worse I don't think.

Anyway I still don't think a sdhoveis wrong here, but if there are not many raises being called a small raise might be an option, hoping that someone shoves over top of you. Perhaps you could even limp if you think it induces TS to shove a big range there.

I don't really want to see a flop too badly though a shove avoids that.

[chrisjp]

Hero shoved and was called by Jeanne in the BB with QQ. It was hero's last hand of the tournament.

After this hand Schneider whispered to Jeanne that hero had made a mistake and should have put in a small raise.

I agree. If anyone at the table 3-bets into you....well you fold the TT. Except for Schneider. You call him in a shot. Now you don't know that you should call Jeanne too if she shoves on you, but that is the only one you are making a mistake against. Jeanne would have 3-bet with a wide range there....she just happened to wake up with QQ.

You call Schneider in a shot because he has seen you fold the only time you got 3-bet. And you have raised 3 times already.

Chris

[nsidestrate]

This has to be a seniors-only decision, because raise-folding 10 BBs is otherwise terri-bad.

[Damien]

This has to be a seniors-only decision, because raise-folding 10 BBs is otherwise terri-bad.

Thank god. I thought I was losing my mind when I read Chris' last post. Either that or poker had drastically changed overnight.

[chrisjp]

This has to be a seniors-only decision, because raise-folding 10 BBs is otherwise terri-bad.

Exactly, but that's what makes this tournament especially interesting and bizarre. You would never std raise with TT in MP with 13BBs. But here it makes sense. I think Schneider was right.

I raised with JTs, admittedly a weak hand, in MP with 18 BBs. SB, an older gentlemen enjoying the game, reraised me. My goodness he has to have QQ+, AK. This particular guy. I folded of course, but it was nice that he flashed me the ladies.

Chris

[coolfish7]

As I was reading this I KNEW there had to be a trick - it's a Chris post! Why else would be post a standard shove spot here? Too bad I had to read down too fast to figure it out myself...

This has to be a seniors-only decision, because raise-folding 10 BBs is otherwise terri-bad.

Yep! Makes total sense. Those senior nits are never reshoving 99- or AJ!

Cool hand Chris


Edit: In thinking about this more - isn't the fact that you're raise/folding a hand as strong as TT an overwhelming argument for playing total LAGtard? Obviously you can't exercise such a style with 13BB, but still - this event has to be winnable with such a style, right?

[chrisjp]

When I had a stack I was raising with Q4 in late position. I was raising big time after even just one limper. I was limping first in OTB with 75s. It's amazing the reads you can get. Of course there are other good players so you have to know who you are dealing with. But so many clueless ones. But the clueless ones who are so bad that they aren't predictable....well you have to be careful. The passive ones who never bet unless they have it and who get terrified when the flop contains an overcard to your pair.....those are the nuggets.

Don't think I discussed the following hand. Fairly loose player raises UTG. But the one thing about this player was that when he got a good hand he pushed. Period. Nit in BB calls. Flop is K88. Nit donk bets, UTG pushes, Nit folds AK and UTG shows A8. Wow

You have to be careful sometimes and really think through the reads. I raised once and one of the blinds called.

Flop: Kxx He checked, I bet, and he thought some before calling. I interpreted his thought as a pocket pair that was afraid of the king. So I bet the turn and he called. Oops. He had a weak King and decided to play. So I was off some of the time, but most of the time I was right on.

Then later I didn't have a stack anymore. That sucked. Still, had K8 beaten 97s I would have had close to average stack. I'll never know what would have happened after that.....could have been interesting.

I think you can play laggy depending on the exact conditions at your table, but you want to maintain that nit image too. Some of these guys might try to tangle with you if you are too loose. Most never will though. They don't change their play at all.

At Jeanne's final table, when it was down to six after she busted Schneider....there was only one decent player, Stemp, to her left. The other 4 really were very nittish and poor. Sounds like there was at least one good player at the other table, Woo. And Pianelli was pretty good. I had played with him but I could read him like a book.

It was fun railing. It would fold to Schneider in late position and I would already know that he was going to raise....guaranteed. Just like I would have. And he did. Then he would raise and someone would 3-bet and he'd think for a bit. But it was 100% clear after he began thinking that it was a total act to cover up a weak raise. Just like I would have done. Now occasionally he was entitled to get a hand, but not very often. I never saw him with a hand actually.

Chris

[chrisjp]

When I had a stack I was raising with Q4 in late position. I was raising big time after even just one limper. I was limping first in OTB with 75s. It's amazing the reads you can get. Of course there are other good players so you have to know who you are dealing with. But so many clueless ones. But the clueless ones who are so bad that they aren't predictable....well you have to be careful. The passive ones who never bet unless they have it and who get terrified when the flop contains an overcard to your pair.....those are the nuggets.

Don't think I discussed the following hand. Fairly loose player raises UTG. But the one thing about this player was that when he got a good hand he pushed. Period. Nit in BB calls. Flop is K88. Nit donk bets, UTG pushes, Nit folds AK and UTG shows A8. Wow

You have to be careful sometimes and really think through the reads. I raised once and one of the blinds called.

Flop: Kxx He checked, I bet, and he thought some before calling. I interpreted his thought as a pocket pair that was afraid of the king. So I bet the turn and he called. Oops. He had a weak King and decided to play. So I was off some of the time, but most of the time I was right on.

Then later I didn't have a stack anymore. That sucked. Still, had K8 beaten 97s I would have had close to average stack. I'll never know what would have happened after that.....could have been interesting.

I think you can play laggy depending on the exact conditions at your table, but you want to maintain that nit image too. Some of these guys might try to tangle with you if you are too loose. Most never will though. They don't change their play at all.

At Jeanne's final table, when it was down to six after she busted Schneider....there was only one decent play Stemp, to her left. The other 4 really were very nittish and poor. Sounds like there was at least one good player at the other table, Woo. And Pianelli was pretty good. I had played with him but I could read him like a book.

It was fun railing. It would fold to Schneider in late position and I would already know that he was going to raise....guaranteed. Just like I would have. And he did. Then he would raise and someone would 3-bet and he'd think for a bit. But it was 100% clear after he began thinking that it was a total act to cover up a weak raise. Just like I would have done. Now occasionally he was entitled to get a hand, but not very often. I never saw him with a hand actually.

Jeanne's situation was funny. Usually when you have 15-20BBs your big edge is your 3-bet folding equity. But this was not true in this situation. The huge folding equity was open raising. When someone else had raised, well this only pertains to the nits, then you needed to be very careful about 3-betting because by god they had a hand and were extremely unlikely to fold preflop. So you had to differentiate between Schnedier and Woo and the few other good players, and player's like Angle the Champ.

That's why I loved Jeanne's play on this hand (that I have previously discussed). Jeanne raised in the SB. Schneider contemplates, apparently, a reraise but just calls. Flop is three babies. Jeanne moves in and Schneider quickly folds. I would love to know what Schneider had there. My guess is a good Ace. He contemplated 3-bet raising or pushing but he had too many chips, and he considered her a nit--so he doesn't have folding equity. So he decides to take a flop in position. Then he whiffs the flop and Jeanne takes it down by moving in with KTo.

Chris

[PauliF]

It appears we are talking about the difference between jamming and the other potential lines which are :

1) standard raise and folding to a jam
2) standard raise and calling a jam

now 1) appears to have been clasified as terrible under normal circumstances but could be correct here because of the clientelle

lets do some number crunching

you raise to 2.5x leaving you with 10.5 behind

it gets jammed and folds back to you

the preflop pot is 2.8bb

so when it gets back to you it is 10.5 to call to win 2.5x2+2.8+10.5=18.3

so our required equity is 36% (10.5/28.8 )

against a higher pair we have 20% equity
against two overs we have 50% equity

if we assume a range of QQ+, AK
then on pure frequency numbers there 16 ways to make AK and 6*3 = 18 ways to make a pair

then our equity is

(16*50% + 18*20%) = 34%

so we dont have enough equity to call a push
so clearly a fold if villains range is that tight.
if we add in AQs then we get 36% equity... bingo
if we add AQ the we get 39% equity so we are well in equity

now there is a concept I have been working on called "rampage value" which this is a very good example to use for

lets say we win and double then we have increased our ability to steal the blinds and antes

say for example that the next orbit after doubling we steal once where we wouldnt have done then we have an extra 2.8bbs

now we only need 33% equity to call

obviously we need to allow for attempting to steal and losing that 2.5x instead of winning 2.8x
but also need to include further blind steal opportunities beyond the next orbit

so lets say

next orbit:
opportunity to steal due to increased stack = 70%
times we are succesful = 75%

so our value for the next orbit = 70%*(75%x2.8 - 25%x2.5) = 1.03
so just over 1bb

lets also consider further orbits and assume that the value decreases each orbit (discounting is a common practise in actuarial science.. basically you discount more as you move further into the future as uncertainty increases)

so a reasonable rampage value here is 1 + 0.7 + 0.5 + .3 + .1 = 2.6
if we allow for this we only need 33% hand equity to call... so easy call even with the tight tight range


but remember he may well be lighter than this... although adding JJ makes matters worse and adding 99 doesnt help much if we are adding JJ too as this cancels each out pretty much... now and again he might be pushing more pairs, bluffing or pushing more overs... in which case it is terribad to fold here even against the seniors

the important thing to remember about rampage value is that is increases in value the tighter your table is... the more you can rampage the more value there is in getting a bigger stack... so the seniors may well be the perfect example of being able to call with out the neccesary immediate odds coz if you win you are gonna steam roller them