ITH Poker Forum

[hazey]

Final table, 5 handed. Payouts are:

1st - $423.23
2nd - $267.30
3rd - $193.05
4th - $152.21
5th - $111.38

Full Tilt - $11+$1|1500/3000/400a NL RUSH - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: 100,118
Hero (BB): 51,700
UTG: 65,168
CO: 22,030
BTN: 30,984

SB posts ante 400, Hero posts ante 400, UTG posts ante 400, CO posts ante 400, BTN posts ante 400, SB posts SB 1,500, Hero posts BB 3,000

Pre Flop: (pot: 6500) Hero has 9:diamond: 9:spade:

fold, CO raises to 9,000, BTN raises to 30,584 and is all-in, fold, Hero???

CO and BTN have been pretty tight, blinding away and seemingly waiting for big hands to get all-in with. But it's only 10BBs effective so fold/call 99 here?

Cheers
hazey

[MXRider]

even with it only being 10bb stacks, I think I have to let this go. You have a nice stack here and you will have to dodge a lot of overcards. CO's raise is extrememly suspiscious as he didn't shove with only 7bb left and the button should recognize this as extremely strong yet he still shoves. Your best outcome is that one of them has a pair lower than 99 and the other has 2 overs. Combined, you are at a significant disadvantage here and while you won't be out, you will lose the power of a nice stack going forward.

[redman7027]

At a 9 handed table in the early or middle stages of a tournament with a lot of action and other 2 players involved I usually fold very good cards I may even fold AK, J’s or Q’s. I have been wondering if I should be more risk tolerant.

5 handed in an end game situation with 99’s I think you should call. It is risky and you may be in trouble the CO’s his bet of ½ his stack is very scary and indicates a big pair. I call anyway at this point in the game I believe mega game issues are driving your play. If you lose to the cut off and win vs. BTN you will get a lot of your stack back, if you lose to both you have chips and can come back, if you beat both you have a real shot at winning the whole thing.

[mrmudgey]

I think I lean toward a fold here......I think that you are most likely up against at least one overpair and 2 over cards......the initial 1/2 stack raise by CO (instead of shove) says to me hes looking for action, and the RR by BTN with 2nd low stack indicates that he has a hand he feels is strong enough to risk getting knocked out by one of the big stacks yet to act....

[the_hawk]

I am unquestionably a nit but I think this is not too difficult a fold.

[poker_Elmo]

Wow, very surprised by all the fold advice. I think you call here. The reraiser could easily have any pair, right? The initial raiser should have a pretty wide range too. You could easily have 50% equity getting better than 3-1.

I think 77 is close but a fold, 88 is close but a call, and 99 is an easy call here.

[redman7027]

Let me explain why I think this is a call and why i would call even if this was -EV.

There are 3 possible outcomes.

Lose to both or to the big stack result (20K in chips 3 or 4 others left to play)

Win vs. both result (106K in chips and 2 others left to play)

Lose to the short stack and win vs. the big result (39K in chips and 3 others left)

What might you be facing?

Let’s make it simple and assume 2 possibilities

Worst Case (Over Pair and Over Cards)
Best Case (Over Cards and under pair or 2 sets of over cards both with an A)

I have run the # in excel and if you assume that there is a 70% chance you are in a worst case situation and a 30% change you are in a best case situation then your Pay back is $58,600. This is the breakeven point you should on average win back your stack. These calculations assume that the CU is the one with the big hand and the BTN likely has over cards and is squeezing. If I thought the bigger stack had the over pair I might see it different.

Based on the calculations above the outcomes by %age are below.

Results - likely hood - Stack Size
1)Lose to CO Win Vs BTN - 38% - 39K
2)Win vs. Both - 25% - 106K
3)Lose to both or the big stack - 38% - 20K

Assuming the # above are accurate and with a 25% chance to get an above average stack with 2 others left I would take the risk partly because I feel pretty confident in my ability to come back from a shorter stake 20K situation and also because 3 handed with an above average stack I can easily win. Also I think the chance you are facing an over pair is much less than 70%.

[MXRider]

Wow, very surprised by all the fold advice. I think you call here. The reraiser could easily have any pair, right? The initial raiser should have a pretty wide range too. You could easily have 50% equity getting better than 3-1.

I think 77 is close but a fold, 88 is close but a call, and 99 is an easy call here.

If the initial raiser had shoved, I'd agree that he would have a wide range, but he just raised half his stack. Re-raiser doesn't have to be that strong, but I think at best we are dodging a lot of cards postflop and I'd rather preserve my stack at this point then taking it up against 2 others. To me it's more about keeping my strong stack than winning a huge one. I feel that I can use that larger stack to a better advantage than the chance of taking a rather large hit to it.

[mconstab]

I've just had a play around with SNG Wizard and with this payout structure and giving both CO and BTN tight raising ranges it looks like hero's calling range is TT+ and AKs.

[poker_Elmo]

I've just had a play around with SNG Wizard and with this payout structure and giving both CO and BTN tight raising ranges it looks like hero's calling range is TT+ and AKs.

even against tight ranges, a fold is only barely incorrect. Perhaps mx is right about the 3x raise being strong, but with those stacks being short, I would assume wide ranges.

[chrisjp]

I use to fold here but I'm calling now. When the stacks get short you'd be surprised how often even formerly tight players loosen up. Even if they have been patient. There comes a point where they just feel they can't wait any longer. I'm not saying it's a great spot but the pot odds make it irresistible. I know the first raiser didn't push, and wish he had, but it won't change my play.

Chris

[TaMaHiTTeR]

Yeah,,, I think I call here for sure to. You win win this pot and you are sitting very well. Pay differences aren't huge either. Odds are one player dissappears here and you still have chips with four left if you do lose. Not alot but some. The reraiser could be on two overs and the CO could be wide, but you say he was tight..y he would raise with 7BB's idn..even if I had QQ+ I open shove here as players no that move to easily anymore. I take my chances for holding the best hand,,and a chance to flop a set to become a huge lead.

[hazey]

Nash equilibrium ICM has this as a call (99+, AQs+, AKo): link

Both shorties were definitely on the tight side and were willing to blind down to 6 or even 5BBs waiting for premium hands.

Given that, and CO's small raise, I'd lean towards mcon's SNG Wiz calling range - TT+, AKs (although can't imagine ever folding AKo) - and make 99 a borderline fold.

Unfortunately - this is how it played out:

Full Tilt - $11+$1|1500/3000 NL RUSH - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: 100,118
Hero (BB): 51,700
UTG: 65,168
CO: 22,030
BTN: 30,984

SB posts ante 400, Hero posts ante 400, UTG posts ante 400, CO posts ante 400, BTN posts ante 400, SB posts SB 1,500, Hero posts BB 3,000

Pre Flop: (pot: 6500) Hero has 9:diamond: 9:spade:

fold, CO raises to 9,000, BTN raises to 30,584 and is all-in, fold, fold, CO calls 12,630 and is all-in

Flop: (49760, 2 players) 9:club: 9:heart: T:spade:

Turn: (49760, 2 players) A:club:

River: (49760, 2 players) 7:spade:

CO shows J:diamond: A:spade: (Two Pair, Aces and Nines)
BTN shows A:heart: K:diamond: (Two Pair, Aces and Nines)
BTN wins 49,760

Cheers
hazey