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The Math of Hold'em The Math of Hold'em Bookby Collin Moshman& Douglas Zare

Winning big at hold’em requires practical math knowledge, which is precisely what this book will teach you. The ability to make quick and accurate mathematical decisions is crucial for your winnings at the table.
Collin Moshman is the best-selling author of Sit ‘n Go Strategy and Heads-Up No-Limit Hold’em. Douglas Zare is a mathematician and poker coach famous for his in-depth analyses.

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Call The Large River Bet

Moderators: chrisjp, poker_Elmo

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3 posts • Page 1 of 1

Call The Large River Bet

Postby StarlightCoast » Jun 26 2009

In my ever continuing quest to become a better NL Holdem Tournament player I put forth the following. I much prefer limit tournies, the decisions are so much easier to make. :shock: I had reads on a couple of the players at my table and quickly was able to spot their styles of play, unfortunately the 2 involved with me on this hand was not one of the reads I had.


No Limit Holdem Tournament
$3.00+$0.30
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Hero (4085)
UTG+1 taxyoass (3715)
MP1 000trw (4825)
MP2 II CoTe ll (4120)
MP3 bronzebomb (905)
CO gronba14 (10380)
BTN y_ninja (4175)
SB adigreff (2825)
BB krip deejay (2420)

Blinds: 25/50

Pre-flop: (75, 9 players) Hero is UTG :ah :qd
Hero raises to 150, 5 folds, y_ninja calls 150, 1 fold, krip deejay calls 100

Flop: :5s :9c :9h (475, 3 players)
krip deejay checks, Hero checks, y_ninja checks

Turn: :qc (475, 3 players)
krip deejay bets 450, Hero calls 450, y_ninja calls 450

River: :6h (1,825, 3 players)
krip deejay goes all-in 1,820, Hero???


I felt the flop was scary enough to check and abandon the continuation bet, and when villain bet the turn i put him on a Queen, but with a worse kicker than mine, then he comes out with a major bet on the river. Hmmmm, what to do especially with one more to act after me.
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Postby PauliF » Jun 26 2009

the flop is the opposite of scary
I am less likely to c bet against two players (than 1)
but I am more likely to c bet a board that is paired

think about it like this. with three unpaired cards there are 9 cards that your opponents could have that could have connected with the board.... with a paired board there are only 5... so c-bet... something in the region of 40%.. i.e 190

so I think you should really c bet that flop


the turn bet is too big... you need to bet 40-60% of the pot on the turn... so 190-285 in this case

fold the river as played... there is too much of a chance you have been rope a doped here or that you let 66 get there etc
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Postby McDivitt » Jun 26 2009

I don't see the flop as scary either, and it required a C-bet.

Calling a big bet on the river with nothing more than top pair is fine when you're desperate, or you're up against a known LAG, but it's not recommended here. I would fold.

I would've bet the pot on the flop. That might've taken it down right there. If you're reraised, fold. If you're called, shove on the flop, and you'll probably win the pot. He could be in there with A9, but at least you went down fighting.
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