ITH Poker Forum

[jfletcher]

This came up in my $109 MTT today, but it's a common spot that always perplexes me.

I have 12 BBs and I get 99 in EP. (Maye utg+1, I think.) It seems that none of the options seem too good here.

Push? Too many BBs for that, but maybe it's good because a push looks like AK and I might get called by a small pp that wouldn't play with me if I made a normal raise.

3x raise and call a push? The odds are probably going to say that's right, but I'm gonna hate it.

3x raise and fold to a push? Yuck.

Limp? Yuck.

Fold? Yuck.

[PauliF]

with no antes - just fold it
with antes - raise to 2.5bb. fold to a push. if called see flop. play carefully. bet out with no overs and with one over (except if its an ACE). bet out of hit set. play very carefully if no set and multiple callers even if no overs

[Tall Paul]

With antes I shove this. It's mathematically +cEV.

The problem with making a standard raise is we hate being flatted and having to play OOP on a flop that's likely to contain at least one overcard.

Raise/calling is ok I think, but as said, we hate getting flatted.

Raise/fold is horrible and spewy in my opinion.

Open folding is a bit too nitty I think.

The other play I don't mind is limp/reraising, if it's not raised then you can play the flop more easily and without having put in over 20% of your stack preflop. I'd almost definitely limp/rr if my stack was more like 15-20BBs.

In summary:
shove>limp/rr>>>raise/call>>>>>>fold>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>raise/fold

[chrisjp]

Raise and fold to a single reraise is horrible.

Antes do matter but in general....

Pushing has some merit, but you don't have quite a good enough hand. You can push JJ for sure. You can fold 77 for sure. But we are in between.

I don't mind the limp-reraise at all. I like it with AK and with 99 it's also fine. You need to double.

I hate this spot with this stack but that's the way it goes.

I'd probably limp--reraise. But I might push.

Chris

[jfletcher]

I raised 3x with the idea of calling a push, but hating it. Any line starting with a normal raise is gonna suck if you are called.

Fortunately my raise took the blinds.

I had not thought of the limp reraise. I like that. I think the push is also an ok line there.

[SpaceLord]

What % of hands will the 7 players to act call your shove? 3%?(99, AKs?) What will they re-raise with? Top 5%?(88+,AJs+,KQs,AKo)

If the above is true:

Raise/Fold is +117.34 chips
Raise/Call a re-raise is 76.32 chips.
Shoving is 2.37 chips.

Yep, shipping it is <3 chips, lol.

Tough spot, and the best play, chip EV-wise, is raising for 2.5x, and folding to a re-raise, but this leaves you with 10BB UTG, and soon to be 8.5BB.

Yuck.

[chrisjp]

The problem is that you can't look at this hand in a vacuum. You really need to double up and so you have to take chances to get a stack. You can't afford to wait. Blinding away is just the pits.

I still agree with TP that the worst is raise/fold.

Let's get up or out.

Chris

[jfletcher]

For further context, there were antes. We were deep, but not close enough to really think about the bubble. Maybe 120 players left, 45 paid, something like that.

I don't think that changes anything.

I guess I could have raised 2.5X, but I figured since I'm going to have to call a push anyway, I might as well raise a little more to discourage the BB from callng me.

[Radford]

I raised 3x with the idea of calling a push, but hating it..

If you're planning to do that. Then why not just push in the first place?

I just push and gambleeeeeee

[jfletcher]

I raised 3x with the idea of calling a push, but hating it..

If you're planning to do that. Then why not just push in the first place?

I just push and gambleeeeeee

You're right. I came to that conclusion shortly after the hand was over. It just didn't "feel right" to push 12 BBs with that hand, but I think it was the right play.

[mchilger]

I am familiar with four of my seven opponents at this table, Seats 1, 3, 6, and 7. I know all of these players to be strong, experienced tournament players who are vying for first place, unafraid of busting out. Unless I see otherwise, I can safely assume they will all practice such common tactics of strong online MTT players as not raise-folding stacks of twenty big blinds or less and recognizing profitable re-steal situations.

- PearlJammer - Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume II - due out in February.

Matthew