ITH Poker Forum

[superwomble]

I played in an $88 rebuy sat to the DSO Marrakesh last night - 23 players, loads of rebuys and addons (none for me), final prize pool 2 $1700 packages, and decent cash for 3rd - 5th.

Down to 12 players I was struggling along in 9th when my AQ was almost doubled up by KQ who went out in 12th. I went up to 3rd with over 17k in chips and not far behind top 2. Very next hand I get OTB. We're 6 handed at blinds of 250/500/50a. UTG (2nd placed player, just over 20k) raises to 1100. Folds to me. He's been doing this a lot but I haven't see him show many cards - he's either folded to a 3bet or taken it down on the flop. I raise to 2900. Folds back to him who calls.

Flop comes . He checks, I bet just over half pot, he raises all in - which covers me. I have just under 11k left.

Thoughts on what to do and the play up to here please?

[MacTaiga]

It's not easy IMO, he could have hit his set playing aces or kings though I'd have expected a re-raise preflop to build the pot some more. But I think it's more likely he's got AK or AQ or a flush draw. I think it's a call.

[Damien]

Perhaps I'm missing something, but surely you have to call? You're only crushed by AA KK and 44. His range is probably wide as you've said that he's raised from EP often and taken it down pre-flop. I would think that 44 is not a very likely holding, and its very unlikely that he has AA or KK since there is only one combo of each left. I mean, the only thing that is a little bit scary is the check-raise, but isn't it more likely that he's semi-bluffing with a Flush Draw or a decent King or Ace? And certainly he can't know how strong you are... all you've done is c-bet on a scary flop. I can't see doing anything but calling, thats for sure. Somebody tell me what I'm missing here... of course I am a bit rusty being in the US and all...

[leofric]

I'd see no reason to fold - unless he flips over a set!

Ok so if you fold you still have 20BB which is not terrible, and on the negative side this is a scary flop which he shouldnt be bluffing on with nothing unless he has reason to believe you are weak. Given the preflop action that's unlikely so he more than likely has something.

I'd discount a FD as it would have to be Q high (given AK are out there) and its still only a draw. QJ,QT and JT would at least give him 3 more outs but he's still behind if called so its not a great move (IMO).

If he has 44 I'm not sure I like the play either. Calling a 3bet OOP without decent setmining odds is not my idea of fun here.

Then again I 'm not a huge fan of him playing AQ/AJ this way and these are the only hands we would be beating here. But then again there's only one combination of AA and KK each out there so they look unlikely too!

It's tough to put him on a hand here. I guess it would come down to how likely he is to be out of line. A complete nit might only have the nuts here but your description of him doesn't fit that so I'd be happy enough calling.

[superwomble]

My first thought was flush draw, but then I thought he's been folding to 3bets before so would he really have called with (at best) QJs? So I considered AA or KK and like mentioned thought he'd have 4bet pre.

So what can he realistically have? AK (although again likely to 4bet pre?) AQ, maybe AJ, or 44.

So I'm looking at maybe a 33/33/33 chance of winning a lovely pot, chopping or getting busted, or just 50/50 win/lose - No?

[Radford]

Well, the fact that you post this makes me think that you called and he showed AA or KK.

Surely you can't be thinking of folding? Really? That would be ridiculous. Whether it's a satellite or not......I'm snap-calling.

[superwomble]

Is it that ridiculous though? What range do you put him on? I can't see him doing this with QQ or JJ as I've been very tight up to now and he would have to think the A and/or the K hit my range hard. For him to have called the 3bet pre surely his range has to be good pairs (discounted due to reasons mentioned) and good Aces? I suppose he could have been doing it with QJs but it seems a bit low on the scale to me.

He's currently in 2nd place and nicely on course for a seat. If I call him and win he is almost out. He could be trying to get me to fold, but with the A and the K there, plus my image, he should be worried I've hit something, which makes it more likely to me that he is strong and wants a call so he can wrap up his seat.

[superwomble]

Also, is there an argument for not cbetting the flop? As he should be thinking the A and/or K is likely to have hit me, what is he likely to call me with that I have beat? AQ/AJ and the unlikely QJs again I guess. Thinking aout it afterwards, would a check behind have been better to allow him to think I have something like QQ/JJ/QJ and allow him to bluff at the pot, especially if a non-spade falls?

[Damien]

I'm never folding, but I guess it depends on what his perceived image of you is. Surely you could have 3-bet with QQ, JJ, or suited broadways? If he thinks that you were capable of that, he probably thinks that a CRAI will get you off of your hand, especially on that board. If he's loose enough, he could have caught all kinds of draws or made hands on that board and if he believes that you are just c-betting, a CRAI should be scary enough for you to lay down most of your holdings. I think the only way you can consider folding is if you know that he perceives you as an absolute super-nit, and even then, he could convince himself that you loosen up as the tourney progresses. IDK, just can't see myself ever folding here. If he's got something better than top 2, oh well, gg. Put it this way: calling can never be much of a mistake on this board; folding has much potential to be a huge mistake... IMO.

[Damien]

Also, is there an argument for not cbetting the flop?

There probably is, but you won't catch me checking behind.

[Primitive]

Also, is there an argument for not cbetting the flop?

There probably is, but you won't catch me checking behind.

I'll check behind quite often in this spot, to induce a bluff. As said, he is unlikely to have a flush draw so giving a free card is no biggie. Also, makes a call much easier when he pushes the turn

BTW, what would villain do with AQ in this spot: C/R......so no folding. If he shows the set then that what the rant forum is for

[superwomble]

Thanks for all the input on this one. At the time I thought I had to be ahead and reckoned him for a flush draw or a weaker A and so I called. He had 44

Thinking about it afterwards I wondered if I had made a mistake due to the reasons I've given but it is heartening to know people think I actually made the correct play

However, when I asked my manager what he would do in this position he also said he would call - usually it is highly incorrect to make the play he would do

[Outlier]

Wow, sick spot for you--I'm tilted just reading it! I mean if you run into AA or KK here, you just say that sucks and try to move on, but for him to turn up with 44 is pretty bad play for him I think.

I posted a a live hand about 6 mo ago with a similar feel: check-raised by villain when he's repping a pretty narrow range. The response from everyone was similar, that I needed to call. And it was a cooler, nuts vs 2nd nuts.

Here's what I wonder, though: could u get any kind of live read? I know this doesn't really figure into hand reading and range assignments, but I think it's something to add to the discussion of live hands. In my case, the guy (as I reflect in hindsight) was looking at me expectantly. That, coupled with his betting action, just screamed strength... I know the math says call, but I wonder if I had had more live experience if i would have trusted this read or at least have tried somehow to get more info, ask him a question, anything. I gotta learn to use these "tools" more!

[superwomble]

Thanks!

No live reads as this was an online sat. I didn't have the HH to hand when I posted as I was at work, sorry for not making that clear!

[nsidestrate]

I like checking behind because you get more value from the part of his range that you crush, but you still have to go broke against what he actually held.