ITH Poker Forum

[McDivitt]

$2 MTT on FT; several hundred runners. About half the field is gone; I've got about 10K in chips; I'm in the top 25% as far as stack size. Blinds are about 100/200

Everyone folds to MP with 3000 chips, who goes all in. Button, who's got about 10,500 chips, calls. SB folds. I'm in the BB with the 5 and 6 of diamonds.

Pot is 6300, and it will cost me 2800 to call.

My move?

[blah730235]

fold

[the_hawk]

Turbo muck.

[McDivitt]

IMO, folding here is a serious mistake. I think you have to call this.

[blah730235]

Level? Calling is a serious mistake.


Suppose for a second you have a super duper good scenario happen Button folds but still puts in his 500 chips, and MP shoves here with any two cards. Hero needs >44.4% equity in the pot to make a good call.

8,390,289,600 games 10.405 secs 806,370,937 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.133% 40.35% 02.79% 3385329780 233686238.00 { 65s }
Hand 1: 56.867% 54.08% 02.79% 4537587344 233686238.00 { random }

Conclusion:

Even if button were to donate his last 500 chips into the pot and walk away plus MP is an aggrotard and shoved 100% of time,a call would be slightly EV-.

[McDivitt]

thanks, blah. but MP has already shoved for 3K and Button has already called. Button still has about 7500 chips left. I'm not following you.

What is 56s vs. say AT or AK?

How about vs. QQ or AA?

I don't know how you run these stats, but I find them interesting.

[blah730235]

I'm saying that even if we make the situation better than it is currently is, we would still fold.

I used a simplified situation that added free money to the pot b/c i could crunch the numbers easier and still found that it would be a bad call.

[blah730235]

Oh google pokerstove and download it.

[McDivitt]

I think focusing on EV and pot odds here is a mistake, because you're missing the bigger picture. I know I'm a certain underdog, but that doesn't matter. (Besides, I'm unlikely to be a huge underdog.)

If I had 5k chips, I would fold in a heartbeat, as I would be crippled if the flop didn't hit me.

But with 10K? I'll call this every time.

I close the betting, so I can't be reraised out.

I'm risking 3k in chips. If the flop misses me, which it will most of the time, I fold, and I'm still in decent shape, with 35BB and probably in the top 50% of stacks. Plus, everyone at the table will think I'm a complete idiot, which always helps in poker.

If the flop hits me hard, I'll probably stack the button, and take my stack from 10k to 23k, making me a monster stack at the table, and putting me in the top 5-10%.

A monster stack will greatly increase my chances of making the FT, which is where the real money is. I don't care about getting ITM. Playing for that is a waste of time.

A lot of people will say I should wait for better situations, because I'm in the top 25% with 50BB. But there are still 400+ ppl that need knocked out before the FT, and the odds of me doing that are very low. The vast majority of the time I'm gonna bust out before the FT.

So i want to take a risk with limited downside in order to possibly build a monster stack, which will give a lot better shot at making the FT. And if I make the FT, my payoff is going to be a lot bigger than it would've if I'd just survived past the bubble.

I'd call it every time.

Does this make any sense to anyone, or am I nuts?

[blah730235]

EDIT:

oh button has you covered by 500, thought he only had 500 in his stack

still probably fold

[McDivitt]

I just now edited the OP to make the stack sizes clearer.

[McDivitt]

Just to clarify - if the button had folded, I'd have folded. Risking 30% of my stack to increase my stack by 30% isn't worth it. But with another 10K stack in there who's likely to stack off if you hit, I think you have to call here.

Also, I wouldn't make this play with Ax, as I'm likely to be be horribly dominated. I want two live cards, preferably suited connectors.

[philhux]

You can't call off 1/3 of your stack with a suited connector - I don't care if you are closing the betting - you aren't getting nearly enough of a price to try and make a hand here and it's a trivial fold. You also need to beat two hands that are superior to yours right now to win the main pot and not just one.

If you and he both had 3x the stacks you have, then your logic makes sense. But why not just fold and go on to the next hand? - I don't see any point in gambling here when you know you are the underdog!

[poker_Elmo]

You can't call off 1/3 of your stack with a suited connector - I don't care if you are closing the betting - you aren't getting nearly enough of a price to try and make a hand here and it's a trivial fold. You also need to beat two hands that are superior to yours right now to win the main pot and not just one.

If you and he both had 3x the stacks you have, then your logic makes sense. But why not just fold and go on to the next hand? - I don't see any point in gambling here when you know you are the underdog!

+1

[chrisjp]

You can't call off 1/3 of your stack with a suited connector - I don't care if you are closing the betting - you aren't getting nearly enough of a price to try and make a hand here and it's a trivial fold. You also need to beat two hands that are superior to yours right now to win the main pot and not just one.

If you and he both had 3x the stacks you have, then your logic makes sense. But why not just fold and go on to the next hand? - I don't see any point in gambling here when you know you are the underdog!

+1

+2