ITH Poker Forum

[Analista]

Table: 10 players.

I am in LP with J J and first in, I raise and SB and BB called.

Flop: A J 7 SB and BB check, I've got a set, so I bet and both players called.

Turn: I bet, SB folds and BB called.

River: 9 . Jeez! another ! BB bets.

Q: What do you do? Do you call? Does the BB was calling to get a flush? or maybe he just has an A with a weak kicker and wants to scare me? Is my hand too strong to fold?

[nsidestrate]

He needs to be bluffing or betting a worse hand about 17% of the time here. It helps a lot if you know something about him. In a tough game against an aggressive player, I'd probably have to call. Against a cautious or predictable player, you can probably fold. My gut instinct is that at lower limits he has the flush nearly always.

[kinnipak]

Agree with Nside.

I am curious tho, do you say this regardless of what level you are playing at?

[nsidestrate]

Agree with Nside.

I am curious tho, do you say this regardless of what level you are playing at?

I would be biased at higher levels towards calling. Players who have a weak Ace very often play a check-call flop, check-call turn, bet river line. Plus many players who are aggressive at higher levels would raise the King-high flush draw looking to win the pot without a showdown. Both factors together would make this lean more towards calling against better players. At lower levels, where the players are more transparent, this looks a lot like a guy who got there on the river and wants to make sure you don't check behind (which you would with the vast majority of your range).

Another factor is what kind of worse hand could he have been calling down with? He can't really have a Jack, right? So he'd have to be calling down with something like 88 and then decide to bluff the river. That seems pretty unlikely. The only realistic hand you beat here is a weak Ace. Some players would raise a weak Ace on the flop (if they didn't have a spade) to protect against the fourth spade. The more I talk about the hand, the more confident I am you are almost always beat here.