ITH Poker Forum

[Cyclist]

In this hand, I just called on the turn with a flush draw and two overcards and afterwards I was thinking maybe I should have raised as a semi-bluff. Opinions much appreciated.


Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em - 9 players

Pre Flop: (1.4 SB) Hero is MP2 with A : K :
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls

Flop: (10.4 SB) 9 : Q : 2 : (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP1 folds, Hero calls

Turn: (6.2 BB) 4 : (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero ?????

[thew92]

If you where to raise here what would you be trying to accomplish?

Free Show Down Raise?
Raise for value that a AJ or worse or a worse flush draw will call
Or raising as a Bluff to get a better hand (pair) to fold.

I would probably just call the turn and call most rivers and of course raise a club.

[Cyclist]

Or raising as a Bluff to get a better hand (pair) to fold.

This, I was thinking about the bit in ITH about the odds that villain folds+the odds that I improve if villain calls might make it a better move

[the_hawk]

Villain won't fold here partly because he likely doesn't know what he's doing (and very likely shouldn't even if he does know). Calldown.

[Misunderstud]

A read on the villain would be helpful but, in the absence of one, and given the (not necessarily best) way that he's played the hand, I'd have to give him credit for AQ, possibly AK and an outside chance of QQ or a rather unlikely two-:club hand. The only hand you're not behind that might fold to a raise is AK (no ), which anyway wins you only the other half of an otherwise split small pot (vs the risk of being 3-bet) and loses you the chance to get another bet from a worse hand if a club falls.

(There are certainly spots in which a turn semibluff raise is a good move, though; perhaps where you can assign a wider hand range to a villain than a typical FR UTG+1's.)

I would probably just call the turn and call most rivers and of course raise a club.

Is that a given at 0.25/0.50 FR? If he's still firing on a club river, does he have other than A:club > 67% of the time?

[thew92]

Or raising as a Bluff to get a better hand (pair) to fold.

This, I was thinking about the bit in ITH about the odds that villain folds+the odds that I improve if villain calls might make it a better move

If the Villain folds its probably because he has a worse hand than you. If this is the case you will get more value out of a Call-Call line than a raise. ie 2 bets will go in to the pot on the turn more often when you are behind If you raise.

[thew92]

Is that a given at 0.25/0.50 FR? If he's still firing on a club river, does he have other than AClub > 67% of the time?

I think I could easily raise/fold a river club so it would only have to be good 51% of the time. (depending on the villain)

[Bugsbunny]

Rather than raising the turn I would rather raise the flop. You've shown strength preflop so a raise here could give you a clue of where you stand. Many opps will simply call the flop reaise, no matter what they have, then check the turn. In this case you should almost always take the free card (unless you hit the A or K). You can then decide what to do on the river (I'd usually (but not always) call a river bet if the turn went check/check)

In this case you have the added bonus of a backdoor flush draw, and getting a free card on the turn for the flush draw (as could have happened here) is a definite equity boost.

Very often the flop lead is a test to "see where they stand" and you'll get a fold when you raise the flop a fairly significant amount of the time. When they don't cal and the turn goes check/check then what will often happen (if you make your flush) is they bet and call a raise on the river.

Note that if you hit the A on the river and opp bets I'd usually just call ratther than raise since Aces up is a real possibility. If the K hits I'd be more likely to raise a river lead, since 2 pair is less likely (although KQ is always a possibilty on a board like this). If the A or K hits and opp checks I would bet/call.

All this is based on a basically unknown opponent. Reads can, of course, change everything.

[jeffnc]

Raising the turn here not very good. I agree with bugs - if you want to raise somewhere, the flop is better. But call/call isn't bad here either.

[kbrkal]

I would have played the hand the same as you did.

[Da_Big_Fish]

I would have done the same.