ITH Poker Forum

[Bullajami]

All comments and suggestions are welcome. I am very unhappy with my results thus far. They may have been unavoidable variance, but if I'm doing this to myself, it needs to be figured out.


This is 75% 1/2 with some .5/1 and .25/.50 thrown in. 56 hands at 2/4, which, ironically, is the only level I am beating.
I can tell you that in 2005-2006 when I was playing with nearly identical stats for over 250,000+ hands I was winning about 1.5BB/100 (pre-bonus). Are these stats good enough to be at all profitable in 2010? I think they are - except that nothing is working so far, and maybe I can't see the forest because I am standing in it.

I don't want to play anymore until the reason I am not winning is identified by some objective voices here. The fun part of poker is rapidly depleting when I just get thumped again and again.

Anyways, I am still feeling gutted by that last session as I post this, so I am going to the gym to throw weights at the two 2-outters and two 5-outters I got clipped by this morning. Hopefully it will put me in the mood to hear some objective advice. Perhaps I should focus on the fact that my relief got on a plane for Djibouti 8 hours ago.
Cheers!

[nsidestrate]

It looks like 2/3rds the damage was done in the last 200 hands. It may be that you went off the rails there. You aren't raising enough -- are you limping first-in?

[Bullajami]

You aren't raising enough -- are you limping first-in?

Rarely. I identified my pre-flop limping leak last time I posted stats 11 days ago. Since then my pfr is 8.12, which I think is in a good range.

I limp with A7s-A2s if first in from MP. Raise it first in from LP. Same with pp 66 and lower.
The tables are 3-5 to the flop, so I am trying to follow the starting hands guidance from SSH for those tables.

[osmosis21]

As Nside mentioned a lot of the damage was at the tail end. You really don't have that many hands and it could easily be variance. However why don't you post a screen shot by position and that might offer some perspective. It seems that you aren't raising or three betting nearly enough. Also the games are tougher than they were in 05-06. Table and seat selection are way more important nowadays.

[Bullajami]

Thanks, btw. I appreciate the help. I'm a smart guy, and its bugging me that I can't figure this out.

[Misunderstud]

I'm a smart guy too, but I'd guess this problem has bugged far smarter guys than us.

Although stats are all we have, there are no magic numbers, and you certainly can't make too many assumptions on a 6k sample. That said, my last half of 2009, which was all at .5/1, looks like this:



so you might think that's a winning game. But when I take that game to 1/2 in 2010, and even though I'm winning the same amount of hands, I get this:



So long as I can stay relatively solvent I'm planning to give it 50k hands, and I'll try ringing the changes with a few strategy tweaks, but tbh I'm living more in hope than expectation. My theory is that at 1/2 nowadays the players are overall so close in standard that they're basically sharing the pots among themselves, leaving the few fish present to pay the rake, and that unless your game is somewhat above average (which mine isn't), then you're more or less playing for rakeback only. Unless you want to grind yourself to death, that's pretty much a waste of time. This is at Stars, of course. Maybe Cake plays a little differently (it certainly does if 3-5 to the flop really is the norm).

Since I'm not winning either, I'm hardly in a position to offer advice, but the differences between our stats are fairly obvious: I rarely open limp (if you're getting 5 to the flop you might as well raise 66 as limp it, plus a raise gives you a chance to steal the blinds and some fold equity later), I steal more, defend less and my opening range is both tighter and biased towards the later positions. My personal jury is still out on whether any of that translates to a winning strategy at 1/2, though.

[the_hawk]

Bull, you seem to be saying in essence that you've had (something like) a 50BB, a 60BB and a 50BB downturn within 6k hands.

There is obviously nothing wrong in looking at your stats and trying to improve, but no amount of improvement will eradicate stuff like this.

I played a short session last night of 400 hands or so. Literally nothing particularly "controversial" happened nor were there any "difficult" hands that I can remember. I dropped 50BB.

[Bullajami]

Bull, you seem to be saying in essence that you've had (something like) a 50BB, a 60BB and a 50BB downturn within 6k hands.
...no amount of improvement will eradicate stuff like this.

I know this, but I can tell the games are tougher than last I played them as a serious grinder. Back then my game was good for 1.2-1.5 BB/100 playing 2/4 to 5/10 FRLH. With bonuses I was making well over 4BB/100 so I never cared enough to take my game to the next level. I was having fun and making some vacation money doing it.

Now I am pretty sure I need to get to the next level to be profitable. And I damn sure am not having much fun yet getting my ass kicked. I want to identify my leaks now, if possible. I've waited too long already.

I'd happily post all my old data for review, but that hard drive died a while ago.

[shallam1]

My number one recommendation for poor results is to drop down in stakes. This will allow you to put the fun back into poker, regain confidence, strengthen your bankroll --- while you attempt to identify your leaks. It's more fun to study poker when you are winning at poker, otherwise thinking/studying poker may seem aversive.


One of the fantastic features of online poker is a tremendous depth of poker levels. I think it is smart to move up thru the ranks as you have demonstrated success at each lower rank. Hopefully, you are constantly improving as you gain more experience and compete against more skill opps.

[the_hawk]

My number one recommendation for poor results is to drop down in stakes. This will allow you to put the fun back into poker, regain confidence, strengthen your bankroll --- while you attempt to identify your leaks. It's more fun to study poker when you are winning at poker, otherwise thinking/studying poker may seem aversive.

100% this.

[Bullajami]

My number one recommendation for poor results is to drop down in stakes. This will allow you to put the fun back into poker, regain confidence, strengthen your bankroll --- while you attempt to identify your leaks. It's more fun to study poker when you are winning at poker, otherwise thinking/studying poker may seem aversive.


One of the fantastic features of online poker is a tremendous depth of poker levels. I think it is smart to move up thru the ranks as you have demonstrated success at each lower rank. Hopefully, you are constantly improving as you gain more experience and compete against more skill opps.

I think shallam1 copied and pasted this from one of my 2005 posts. That would be highly ironic.

It's fantastic advice for new players, and maybe old ones, too, but I'm gonna abstain from this particular good idea and just ask players I know to be expert limit players to take a look at my stats and tell me how I am being a f*** up.

[janeg]

Thanks, btw. I appreciate the help. I'm a smart guy, and its bugging me that I can't figure this out.

Well, my own game has been shite this last year but looking at the stats

1. You look a little too loose and passive UTG; think the 21% WTSD is evidence of this

2. Middle position ... your VP$IP in those spots is almost the same as your UTG but your PFR is higher and you're going to SD more often. Maybe another indication you're too loose/passive UTG?

3. Your W$SD in HJ,CO,B looks really high...maybe missing opportunities in some marginal situations?

4. Blinds look good

Just my 2 cents

[Bullajami]

1. You look a little too loose and passive UTG; think the 21% WTSD is evidence of this

I concur. First couple thousand hands I was limping low pp and Axs in EP. A bad habit I picked up from playing lots of $10 NL. I feel confident I have fixed this and the numbers will reflect this in time.

3. Your W$SD in HJ,CO,B looks really high...maybe missing opportunities in some marginal situations?

I suspect you are correct. How can I identify those situations?

4. Blinds look good

Really? The blinds definitely cause me the most unease in my pre-flop game. How many limpers before any two-suited is a call in the SB? How many for unsuited connectors?

Thanks Jane!

[osmosis21]

From a first glance I don't see much of a difference between your vpip from utg to HJ. I notice that your pfr does increase as you have better position. I think you might be playing speculative hands oop. Not sure what software you are using (hopefully hem), but maybe you should filter for when you open limp and see if you are being punished.

If your games are that loose passive where there is not a lot of raising (not sure since I haven't played FR at those stakes in a while, I also think that you could be playing more hands in the CO and button. Your W$ at showdown is pretty high in late position.

[janeg]

3. Your W$SD in HJ,CO,B looks really high...maybe missing opportunities in some marginal situations?

I suspect you are correct. How can I identify those situations?

Not sure Bull, maybe filter by position and hands folded at showdown, or on river or on turn; I'd try to figure out where I was folding the most and then review some of those hands vs opp hand ranges (Ed has a calculator for hand ranges but it's down at the moment)

4. Blinds look good

Really? The blinds definitely cause me the most unease in my pre-flop game. How many limpers before any two-suited is a call in the SB? How many for unsuited connectors?

There's an old post by nside about losing less than the cost of the blinds; I use that as a general rule of thumb.