ITH Poker Forum

[Roland P]

hello guys, i´d like to ask if i made a mistake with this play:
10-handed 1-2 limit
hero K T (cut-off) raises very loose player (72/11/0,9) in c. o. +1. big blind and loose pl. call.
flop T Q 6 : loose checks, hero bets, b.b. raises, loose folds, hero calls.
turn 9 : hero checks, b.b. bets, hero calls.
river: b.b. bets, hero calls. b.b. shows A Q for top 2 pair.

I thought my hand on the flop was good against a blind defender, so i called his raise. on the turn i figured to have enough outs (8) for a call. the call an the river ?? could you give my some piece of advice?

[nsidestrate]

I take it the river was an Ace? That's a pretty bad card. I think your play on the flop and turn are totally standard. On the river the pot holds 8 bets and you have to call 1. That means that your hand has to be good 12.5% of the time for the call to be profitable. Once you get to about 10 to 1, I'm pretty much always calling because he could have some random crazypants hand often enough that a showdown value hand like yours is worth a peek. When the flop is two suited, I'm calling lighter because there are lots of flush draws that he will bet.

A lot depends on your read of the other guy. Most predictable players bet the river with strong hands and missed draws. Because it is extremely difficult to imagine a reasonable failed draw for BB (JT is really the only hand that makes sense there and even then he might well check to you), I think this might be a fold against all but very tricky players. It is difficult to imagine him banging all the way down with just a six or a worse ten than yours. Most of those kind of hands are going to check down against you for fear you have a hand like QJ or JJ/TT or some such. Your line looks like you will call the river because otherwise it didn't make a lot of sense for you to call the turn. I think most of the hands that you beat check on the river and its hard to see a ton of pure bluffs in his range here. Worse, yet a lot of his pure bluffs probably included some kind of Ace, so even the bluffs on the turn passed you now.

Your action is somewhat confusing as well. It looks like you are saying you were the first to raise pre-flop, but later you have the loose player acting first, so maybe you meant that he raised pre-flop in front of you and you three-bet him. This would be more consistent with your title, too. If that is the case, you are actually getting better odds on the river, but the BB calling three bets cold represents a much stronger hand and I'm even more convinced that he can beat third pair when he bets the river again.

[Roland P]

yes, i forgot. the river was an ace. and the loose player limped, and i raised, expecting the blinds to fold.
on the turn i got pot odds of 12,5 : 2 for my call - i figured implied odds of 7:1. i calculated my outs: 4 for 2 pair/trips and 4 for the gutshot.
i must agree with you that my call on the river was a mistake, i didnt know much about the player, just thought i wouldnt want to lose a pot due to a bluff - odds 8,25 : 1.

[nsidestrate]

You have to call the turn. The river is thin, but probably a fold. You are right that you don't want to get bluffed on the river and that is a key concept that lead you to call many rivers once you get there. But in this case, there are very few bluffs that you can reasonably expect him to have. If the flop had two spades and no more spades came, you have a much better chance that he was on a bluff with a flush draw. In this case, the most logical drawing hands on the flop have come in to beat you by the river.

[Roland P]

thanks for the analysis. it makes perfect sense to me now. before that i wasnt so sure wether my raise pre-flop was ok.
see you.

[jeffnc]

Preflop raise is good in that situation.