ITH Poker Forum

[Cyclist]

In this hand, cutoff was a maniac, raising every other hand preflop. I was hoping to limit it to me and him with the three bet. Looking back at this hand, I think I should have folded on the turn when checkraised.



Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em - 9 players

Pre Flop: (1.4 SB) Hero is BTN with 9 : 9 :
4 folds, MP2 calls, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps!, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls

Flop: (14 SB) Q : 9 : A : (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB calls, CO calls

Turn: (8.5 BB) 2 : (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB raises, CO folds, Hero calls

[the_hawk]

You gotta be kidding about folding to the turn c/r.

The turn is a 100% 3-bet as played, call a cap, and don't even think about stopping mashing bet/raise until at least 2-3 bets go in on the river.

EDIT: but even if you don't believe this and just want to call down, you're getting a little over 6:1 from the point of calling the turn c/r (assuming you have to call a river bet) - so unless you reckon precisely AA, QQ constitutes over 85% of villain's range you're losing money by folding.

[Cyclist]

It was the small blind capping pre-flop that made me think that he had either AK or a high pocket pair, and then that a lot of players slowplay trips to the turn made me think I should have folded.

Edit- That said, maybe it's just hindsight making me think that because he won with AA.

[thew92]

Check out the results in this thread and tell me if you still think this turn is a fold?
http://www.internettexasholdem.com/poke ... 55569.html


I would be thinking 3-bet more than fold here. Players will tend to over-play Aces up in this spot.

[Cyclist]

Hahaha, ok I get it, thanks. I'm really glad I read pilchard's article for beginners about not self diagnosing.

[thew92]

I think the key is not to be results oriented when you lose with a monster hand. Its just going to happen sometimes.

[Willem]

The question is whether to 3bet the turn, or just call down. You have to look at what hands villain (SB) can have here, and how likely these are. Suppose he can have these hands: AA, QQ, AQ and AK.

So how likely are these hands? You can do this by looking at in how many ways he can make those hands, with the card already known. For instance, there are 3 aces left in the deck (since there's one on the board), so he can make AA in 3 ways, same for QQ. He can have 9 hand combinations of AQ, and 12 hand combos of AK. So when he caps preflop with all these hand, and in 100% of the time, then you'd have an easy 3bet. You are only behind to 6 hand combos, while being ahead of 21 hands.

Note that you have be ahead here twice as often to make a 3bet good. This is because you only win 1 bet extra when you are ahead, while you lose 2 extra when behind.

So what happens when you take out AQ, which he will likely just call preflop as opposed to cap. We are now ahead of AK, and behind to AA,QQ. AK is 12 hand combos, while AA,QQ is 6 hand combos total. So in this case, both 3betting and just calling are equally good.

[thew92]

In this hand, cutoff was a maniac, raising every other hand preflop

Just on a side note I would 3-bet 99 on the Button vs a CO raise against 98% of my opponents. I would have to have a real good "he is tight" read not to do so.

[jeffnc]

Unless I have some stats on the guy like he only 3-bets 0% of the time preflop after 2,000 hands, I would never fold. You'll see AK and AQ enough here. And sometimes KK of course

[Da_Big_Fish]

Yep, no folding here. Riding this all the way to the River.