ITH Poker Forum

[ciaran]

Not sure I remember how to play LHE. Villain is like 30/20 over 30ish hands. I assume flop and turn are standard, feel free to correct me.

PokerStars - $1/$2 (10 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $46.50
BTN: $24.50
SB: $9.00
BB: $34.50
UTG: $32.25
UTG+1: $64.00
MP: $43.00
Hero (MP+1): $35.50

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero has K:heart: K:spade:

UTG raises to $2.00, fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.00, fold, fold, SB calls $2.50, fold, UTG raises to $4.00, Hero calls $1.00, SB calls $1.00

Flop: ($13.00, 3 players) Q:spade: A:club: T:spade:
SB checks, UTG bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00, fold

Turn: ($15.00, 2 players) 7:club:
UTG bets $2.00, Hero calls $2.00

River: ($19.00, 2 players) Q:diamond:
UTG bets $2.00, Hero ???

[Misunderstud]

Against most villains I'd have no problem folding a blank turn; the only hand we're sensibly beating is JJ, our J outs are likely to a split pot and our K outs are dead vs AA.

An alternative would be to raise the flop, planning to call a 3-bet and fold if he leads a non-J or non-:spade turn. Many opps will call the raise and c/r the turn, so you can take a free card and get to SD for 1 more bet. That might be a bit headstrong for 1/2 FR, though.

As played, it looks as though the only chance you have of winning the hand is to raise the river. The chances of success aren't great but, then again, they don't need to be.

[thew92]

Against most villains I'd have no problem folding a blank turn; the only hand we're sensibly beating is JJ, our J outs are likely to a split pot and our K outs are dead vs AA.

An alternative would be to raise the flop, planning to call a 3-bet and fold if he leads a non-J or non-:spade turn. Many opps will call the raise and c/r the turn, so you can take a free card and get to SD for 1 more bet. That might be a bit headstrong for 1/2 FR, though.

As played, it looks as though the only chance you have of winning the hand is to raise the river. The chances of success aren't great but, then again, they don't need to be.

Raising the river would be the worst line to take here. He is calling any Ax and Qx hand and folding hands you beat.

Calling down is fine here. I would like to know how often the player barrels 3-streets. I would expect to see a lot of hands that beat you here.

[the_hawk]

It's been a long while since I played LHE, but getting 10:1 on the river I don't think I'm ever folding any sort of made hand with which I called the turn.

[janeg]

Ugly board but like Hawk said, don't think you can fold getting 10.5:1.

Using PokerStove:
If his 3-bet PFR is 3% EV for KK is 56%
If his 3-bet PFR is 10% EV for KK is 29%
If his 3-bet PFR is 20% EV for KK is 35%

Plus the board has 2 flush draws and a straight draw

I'd expect to lose the pot most of the time but only need to win it 2/(2+19) = 9.5% to break even on the call.

[nsidestrate]

I don't think you are good 10% of the time here. There is no reasonable busted flush draw he can have here. It would have to be J9ss or 98ss and I'm having trouble putting him on that given the pre-flop action. The only remotely reasonable hope is that he has JJ/KT or something like that and I just don't think those hands make 10% of his range. Not that many villains will be capping JJ or KT UTG, even 30/20 villains.

Calling the river in LHE is almost never a big leak, but I would think that he only has a bluff 5% of the time or so, so I think it is still a leak.

[janeg]

I don't think you are good 10% of the time here. There is no reasonable busted flush draw he can have here. It would have to be J9ss or 98ss and I'm having trouble putting him on that given the pre-flop action. The only remotely reasonable hope is that he has JJ/KT or something like that and I just don't think those hands make 10% of his range. Not that many villains will be capping JJ or KT UTG, even 30/20 villains.

Calling the river in LHE is almost never a big leak, but I would think that he only has a bluff 5% of the time or so, so I think it is still a leak.

You're probably right, I overlooked his betting into 2 on the flop; not many would bet out on that board against 2 without at least an Ace or Queen.

[Misunderstud]

I overlooked his betting into 2 on the flop; not many would bet out on that board against 2 without at least an Ace or Queen.

I don't think that's of great significance per se - when you cap pf you pretty much have to lead out - but when combined with the pf cap and continued firing, I can't see you being anything but toast on the river. So I disagree that

Raising the river would be the worst line to take here. He is calling any Ax and Qx hand and folding hands you beat.

The river Q provides the thinnest of lifelines against top pair (I think nside's pf range is a bit tight for 1/2), but the raise has only to fold a better hand 5% of the time (being one extra bet to win 20) to be +EV. And if he folds a worse hand, so what? He's already put his money in.

All that said, I'd probably have baled before the river anyway. However, I seem to recall from one LHE video I watched that the 'standard' line HU with KK on an A board is to check/call the flop and turn and bet the river (OOP, obv.). How does that work, then, anybody?

[thew92]

The river Q provides the thinnest of lifelines against top pair (I think nside's pf range is a bit tight for 1/2), but the raise has only to fold a better hand 5% of the time (being one extra bet to win 20) to be +EV. And if he folds a worse hand, so what? He's already put his money in.

You have to believe that you this guy can fold Ax for a raise to be correct. Thats just not going to happen because even a weak Ace just improved their kicker.

[Misunderstud]

You have to believe that you this guy can fold Ax for a raise to be correct. Thats just not going to happen because even a weak Ace just improved their kicker.

His (non-Q) kicker is irrelevant if he believes that you've been calling down Qx. My point is this: I think I have the worst hand here practically 100% of the time, so my choices are fold and win nothing, call and lose one more bet or, since the river pairing gives us the opportunity to do so, raise and occasionally force villain into mistakenly believing you've just spiked trip Qs or a boat and making a heroic laydown. It's simply a case of slim chance vs no chance.

[nsidestrate]

I may be biased because I'm never folding an Ace here, but some villains might. Still will villain fold 20% of the time here? I doubt it.

[Misunderstud]

I may be biased because I'm never folding an Ace here, but some villains might. Still will villain fold 20% of the time here? I doubt it.

The maths are somewhat hazy here, depending on whether you're treating it as 'fold or raise', and whether your going to call a 3-bet, but I don't think it needs to be 20%. You're putting in 2 bets to win 20, so that would be 10%. If you were calling anyway, you'd be putting in one extra bet to win 20. There's also the point that, if you were going to fold or raise, you would some small % of the time be folding the best hand.

This is never going to be a +ev situation; I just feel that bluff raising when the river pairs might be the way to make the best of a bad job.

[nsidestrate]

The maths are somewhat hazy here, depending on whether you're treating it as 'fold or raise', and whether your going to call a 3-bet, but I don't think it needs to be 20%. You're putting in 2 bets to win 20, so that would be 10%.

Your math looks more hazy than usual to me. The pot has $21 and a raise would cost $4. I make that roughly 20%

If you were calling anyway, you'd be putting in one extra bet to win 20.

That is where it gets hazy. If you have the best hand 10% of the time a call would be justified ($2 to win $21). If he would also fold a better hand 10% more of the time, you could then move on to justify a raise ($4 to win $21). Where it gets hazy is if you are actually good something like 5% of the time, then you need to fold a better hand 15% of the time.

This is never going to be a +ev situation; I just feel that bluff raising when the river pairs might be the way to make the best of a bad job.

I probably don't look for these situations quite as often as I might, but I think it can be dangerous to try to take whatever line gives you some chance to win. If you get caught bluff raising the river here, your fold equity is going to go down in a lot of other situations where you might want it.

[Misunderstud]

Your math looks more hazy than usual to me. The pot has $21 and a raise would cost $4. I make that roughly 20%

Good grief, don't tell me I've got to learn to count now as well as remembering all the other stuff.

Note to self: Stop adding throwaway last lines to OPs.

[Bugsbunny]

I like the raise the flop line. If he 3 bets call and fold the turn unimproved. If he calls and leads the turn the you should also fold unimproved. If he offers a free card take it. With a free card calling or folding the river becomes a bit dicier. With the board paring I'd fold to a river bet.

As played I agree that a river fold makes the most sense. I think you're almost never good here.