ITH Poker Forum

[Misunderstud]

Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is CO with A : A :
2 folds, Hero raises, BTN calls, 1 fold, BB calls

Flop: (6.5 SB) 6 : 6 : T : (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BTN calls, BB calls

Turn: (4.75 BB) 7 : (3 players)
BB bets, Hero ???

No particular reads on either villain

[Misunderstud]

Don't tell me I'm going to have to go to 2p2 for an answer.

[Willem]

Well, problem is that nobody is sure about the answer, mostly because both options (call down, or raise and call down a 3bet) are probably quite close in EV.

I don't think it matters much against an unknown, and a lot will depend on how people at this limit, at this site play. Some villains play trips this way, but how many 6x handscombos can he have here? (Honest question.) Can he have 98 (16 handcombos) here? Or just 98s (4 combos)? Does he play Tx, 99 or 88 like this?

You need to be ahead here twice as much, since you lose 2 bets extra, but win only 1.

So it all depends a lot on how you think villain plays, what range he has when he donks the turn. And you are the only one qualified to answer this question.

[Misunderstud]

And you are the only one qualified to answer this question.

Nevertheless, it's surely possible to apply more general principles, too. Specifically, hand protection and maximising winnings/minimising losses.

The key question (and the one I couldn't answer to my satisfaction) is, what do I want to happen in this hand? The turn card is both dangerous and a good bluffing card. By betting out, BB might have slowplayed trips or better or a straight/flush/boat that just got there, or just be representing a monster or protecting his own worse hand. The lead looks more like a bluff or semibluff, though, since I'd expect a c/r from a big hand at this level. If he has a big hand, he might 3-bet a raise, though unless he has the nut flush or better he might well just call. If either or both villains have just a high club, or maybe a T or a 7, a raise will make them pay double to stay in. A raise may also fold a lone small club (eg a 9 or half a low pocket pair), so there's some element of protection there too. OTOH a raise will frighten off worse made hands that would probably pay me off to SD when I win.

So I also thought it was close (= I couldn't make my mind up what to do for the best ) between playing this aggressively and passively. Perhaps the lack of opinions means that's correct, and it doesn't much matter either way.

Side question: Would you think differently if the pot were heads up?

[Willem]

Ah, I misread the hand. I thought you were heads-up on the turn.

Now that you are 3-ways, raising for protection (or to charge the 3rd player) will sway the decision towards raising. But at the same time, BB's range for betting out becomes smaller, as he now has to fear either you or BTN has a strait, flush, trips or a boat.

I suspect BB will not bet out Tx here, in which case calling clearly becomes the better option.

[Misunderstud]

Well, I know you're not really supposed to answer your own posts, but since there's only you and me here . . .

I can see where you're coming from (and thanks for doing so), but I think we might have to agree to differ. The more I think about this hand, the more I'm inclined towards raising as the better option. I'm not crediting BB with a big hand just yet - as I said, I'd more likely expect a c/r if he'd hit. (Bet/3-bet would probably be his best move in that case, but at .5/1 I'm not crediting him with doing that, either.) If I were closing the action then there wouldn't be much I could do to manipulate, and I think calling down would be fine there. Same if it's HU. But BTN, who's been passive so far, is behind me and likely donating. Even though he's getting the odds to draw to a flush, I'd far rather give him 4/1 than 7/1. And he might be drawing much thinner or even dead. If he calls and BB 3-bets then I effectively get 13/1 on the call which, although not great, isn't a disaster, given that sometimes I'm ahead and sometimes I'll spike an A. If BTN 3-bets and BB caps, it's probably a fairly safe, if reluctant, fold.

On balance, I think the protection/charging element outweighs the danger of losing an extra bet or two or laying down a winning hand.

[nsidestrate]

I didn't know anyone posted in limit any more. Heads-up, I'd lean towards callnig down because the raise might let him figure out where he's at and stop his bluffs. In a 3 way pot, I'd rather raise to punish the third player if he has a draw. If the third player calls or raises, you are toast.

[Misunderstud]

I didn't know anyone posted in limit any more. Heads-up, I'd lean towards callnig down because the raise might let him figure out where he's at and stop his bluffs. In a 3 way pot, I'd rather raise to punish the third player if he has a draw. If the third player calls or raises, you are toast.

Welcome to the forum.

[nsidestrate]

I didn't know anyone posted in limit any more. Heads-up, I'd lean towards callnig down because the raise might let him figure out where he's at and stop his bluffs. In a 3 way pot, I'd rather raise to punish the third player if he has a draw. If the third player calls or raises, you are toast.

Welcome to the forum.

I might try to check it out from time to time. Seems like some interesting discussion here.

[Da_Big_Fish]

Yep, you gotta call down. Make it as cheap as possible for you.

[janeg]

These boards are headache at 6-max. The flush is a little less likely than at a full table; BB could have trip 6's. Alot of players at this level like to wait for the turn to pop a check-raise; the 3rd club may have induced him to bet for value. Then again, he could be tricky, you were the PFR and there are no high cards on the board; he may just be hoping you'll both go away.

Without a read, I'd call, and hope to get a cheap SD. If BTN raises and BB calls or 3 bets I'd get out of the way.

[jeffnc]

It's interesting that one of the hands in his range that immediately popped into my head, but no one else's for some reason, is T7. It's amazing how many people get confused by a hand like T7 on this board, and immediately bet out as a sort of knee-jerk reacttion. But then again, he might put you on a hand like AT or JT, so this could make sense.

Anyway, I prefer calling here almost always. A raise sounds interesting with the third player involved, but a call gets you max value when you're ahead of 2 opponents, and loses the least when you're behind one of them.

Of course there are some opponents I'd fold to in a heartbeat, but you gave no solid reads.

[jeffnc]

Even though he's getting the odds to draw to a flush, I'd far rather give him 4/1 than 7/1. And he might be drawing much thinner or even dead. If he calls and BB 3-bets then I effectively get 13/1 on the call which, although not great, isn't a disaster, given that sometimes I'm ahead and sometimes I'll spike an A.

That kind of thinking is a little spewy for my personal taste. How often do you think you're ahead when BB 3-bets here?

I can't put my finger on it, but a simple calculation of 13:1 on the call isn't quite right, because you have to look at the entire street as an investment calculation. You subsidized your own 13:1 call, so it's not that great. It's also not fully correct because you will call on the river when behind often too. Again, it's a calculation for an entire situation, not just one call. This situation occurs sometimes and I wish I had a term for it....